Pubdate: Mon, 22 Nov 1999 Source: San Francisco Chronicle (CA) Copyright: 1999 San Francisco Chronicle Page: A5 Contact: http://www.sfgate.com/chronicle/ Forum: http://www.sfgate.com/conferences/ Author: Associated Press SERIOUS CRIME DOWN 10% IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR Surprisingly Big Drop Tops 7 1/2 Years Of Decline WASHINGTON - The number of serious crimes reported to police plunged by 10 percent in the first half of this year, an unusually large drop that extended the nationwide crime decline to 71/2 years, the FBI said yesterday. Led by drops of 13 percent in murders, 14 percent in burglaries and 12 percent in auto thefts, the declining crime rate surprised experts. The overall crime figure declined by only 5 percent, 4 percent and 3 percent in the preceding three first-half-year reports. This year, among other violent crimes, robbery dropped 10 percent; rape, 8 percent; and aggravated assault, 7 percent. In other property crime, larceny-theft dropped 8 percent. Nationally, the report gives only percentage changes between the first six months of 1999 and of 1998. The federal figures follow last week's release of the California crime Index, which showed that violent crime in all major Bay Area cities also decreased during the first six months of this year, except in Oakland and Hayward, where it increased sharply, according to a state attorney general's report. The California statistical study showed that San Francisco, San Jose, Concord, Daly City, Fremont, Santa Rosa, Sunnyvale and Vallejo all had decreases in violent crime. Berkeley had a negligible increase. While violent crime increased in Oakland and Hayward, the study notes, those two cities joined all the others in a decrease in their overall crime rate, which includes property crimes such as burglary. "These drops are enormous and encouraging," said Carnegie Mellon University professor Alfred Blumstein, speaking of the national figures. "This is astounding," said James Alan Fox, a professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University. "No one could have predicted the drops would have been this deep." As for explanations, experts cited federal, state and local anti-crime measures, a growing economy, the aging of baby boomers and the decline of crack cocaine markets. But Fox also discerned "a reverse contagion effect." "Lawfulness is becoming the norm, and it's contagious," he said. "Cities around the country are investing in crime programs as never before. Rather than hiding behind double-locked doors, citizens are getting involved in their communities." He and Blumstein also mentioned the growth of community policing, expanded incarceration of criminals, crime prevention and anti-gun efforts by federal and local authorities. The big city murder figure also is influenced by New York, which saw homicides through July 4 rise from 309 last year to 345 this year, while all other major crimes continued to decline. Earlier in the 71/2-year decline, big city murders including New York's saw the steepest declines. "But 7 percent-a-year declines can't go on forever," Blumstein said. Blumstein said, "In the big cities, we've gotten rid of the murderous violence that is readily preventable through gun controls, drug market changes and the strength of the economy. At some point, we end up with a wide variety of personal disputes." The big city murder figures were the leading indicators of the crime decline in the 1990s, because that is where crack gangs and the guns they gave juveniles showed up first, Blumstein said. Over time, that problem radiated out to smaller and smaller cities. The solutions followed the same path. Indeed, this year's FBI figures show that basically the smaller the city, the larger the decline in murders. The three groups of cities between I million and 100,000 population showed murder declines of 11 through 14 percent. The three groups between 10,000 and 100,000 showed murder declines of 23 through 27 percent. "A 27 percent drop is enormous. It took time for the problem and the solutions to reach those smallest cities," Blumstein said. As before, overall crime dropped in every region and in every size community. The declines were 12 percent in the West, 11 percent in the Midwest, 10 percent in the Northeast, and 7 percent in the South. Among population groups, the largest decline was in cities of 25,000 to 100,000, 11 percent; the smallest drop was in cities of more than a million, 6 percent. Rural areas had an 11 percent decline; suburban areas, 10 percent. - --- MAP posted-by: Richard Lake