Pubdate: Tue, 9 Nov,1999
Source: Orange County Register (CA)
Copyright: 1999 The Orange County Register
Contact:  http://www.ocregister.com/
Section: News, page 4
Author: Doug Willis, The Associated Press

"THREE STRIKES" INEFFECTIVE AS CRIME DETERRENT, STUDY SAYS

LAWS: Supporters Of The Get-Tough Measure Question Those Findings.

SACRAMENTO- A new study of criminal sentences in three large California 
cities concludes that the state's 5 1/2 year-old "three strikes, your out" 
hasn't had any statistically significant effect on the conduct of criminals.

Franklin Zimring, a University of California, Berkeley, law professor, said 
Monday that his analysis of arrest records of 3,500 criminal defendants in 
Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco before and after California 
enacted the law in 1994 found no evidence it is a deterrent to crime.

His report was immediately challenged by a spokesman for an author of 
California's three strikes law, Secretary of State Bill Jones, a former 
state assemblyman.

"When you see the crime rate going down 38 percent since three strikes, you 
can't say it doesn't work," said Jones spokesman Alfie Charles. "The entire 
crime rate drop isn't attributable to three strikes, but it is a major factor."

The three strikes Law - doubling sentences for a second felony conviction 
and imposing 25 years to life for a third conviction - was enacted in March 
1994.

But the crime rate had been declining for 21/2 years before that date, and 
it continued downward after three strikes at roughly the same rate, Zimring 
said.

But more importantly, the percentage of felony defendants facing 
three-strikes sentence, the real measure of its value as a deterrent, only 
declined from 13.9 percent during the 2/12 years before three strikes to 
12.8 percent in the same time period after.

"The statistical effect of three strikes is negligible," Zimring told a 
news conference Monday. "The three-strikes defendants are indistinguishable 
from the general run of felonies.

"If California's crime decline were a three-strikes effect, we would expect 
to see the drop in arrests concentrated among the target groups. Instead, 
the decline is spread evenly" among both three-strikes and first- and 
second-time offenders, he said.

But Charles said the study ignored other relevant data.

"We have more parolees leaving California than coming to California. If you 
talk with parolees or inmates, they know what it is, and they know how many 
strikes they have. It is working," Charles said.

But Zimring said there was "no way to turn this data into a conclusive 
argument for or against the impact of three strikes."

He said his statistical analysis also strongly suggests that prosecutors 
are seeking the second-strike enhancement of double the normal penalty, but 
they are not seeking third-strike penalties in the overwhelming majority of 
cases where it might be applicable.

He said parole revocations of ex-convicts have also risen substantially, an 
indication that prosecutors are using that option. 
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