Pubdate: Tue, 09 Nov 1999 Source: San Jose Mercury News (CA) Copyright: 1999 San Jose Mercury News Contact: 750 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95190 Fax: (408) 271-3792 Website: http://www.sjmercury.com/ STUDY MINIMIZES `THREE-STRIKES' LAW Berkeley Professor Finds No Impact On Crime Sacramento- (AP) -- A new study of criminal sentences in three large California cities concludes that the state's 5 1/2-year-old ``three strikes, you're out'' law hasn't had any statistically significant impact on the conduct of criminals. Franklin Zimring, a University of California-Berkeley law professor, said Monday his analysis of arrest records of 3,500 criminal defendants in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco before and after California enacted the law in 1994 found no evidence it is a deterrent to crime. His report was immediately challenged by a spokesman for an author of California's ``three strikes'' law, California Secretary of State Bill Jones, a former state assemblyman. ``When you see the crime rate going down 38 percent since `three strikes,' you can't say it doesn't work,'' Jones spokesman Alfie Charles said. ``The entire crime-rate drop isn't attributable to `three strikes,' but it is a major factor.'' The ``three strikes'' law -- doubling sentences for a second felony conviction and imposing 25 years to life for a third conviction -- was enacted in March 1994. Rate Was Dropping But the crime rate had been declining for 2 1/2 years before that date, and it continued to drop after ``three strikes'' at roughly the same rate, Zimring said. More important, he said, the percentage of felony defendants facing ``three-strikes'' sentences, which Zimring contends is indicative of the law's deterrent effect, declined from 13.9 percent during the 2 1/2 years before ``three strikes'' to 12.8 percent in the same length of time after. ``The statistical effect of `three strikes' is negligible,'' Zimring told a Capitol news conference Monday. ``The `three-strikes' defendants are indistinguishable from the general run of felonies.'' ``If California's crime decline were a `three-strikes' effect, we would expect to see the drop in arrests concentrated among the target groups,'' he said. ``Instead, the decline is spread evenly'' among both three-strikes and first- and second-time offenders. But Charles said Zimring's study ignored other relevant data. Parolee Data ``We have more parolees leaving California than coming to California,'' Charles said. ``If you talk with parolees or inmates, they know what it is, and they know how many strikes they have. It is working.'' Zimring said there was ``no way to turn this data into a conclusive argument for or against the impact of `three strikes.' '' He said his statistical analysis also strongly suggests that prosecutors are seeking the second-strike enhancement of double the normal penalty but they are not seeking third-strike penalties in the overwhelming majority of cases in which it might be applicable. He said parole revocations of ex-convicts have also risen substantially, an indication that prosecutors are using that option instead of prosecuting for a third strike. ``It appears that only one in 10 eligible for 25-to-life actually gets it,'' Zimring said. He said that while at least 25 other states and the federal government also have enacted three-strikes statutes, he doesn't plan a more extensive study, since California has had nearly 90 percent of the nation's three-strikes cases. - --- MAP posted-by: manemez j lovitto