Pubdate: Tue, 19 Sep 2017
Source: Globe and Mail (Canada)
Copyright: 2017 The Globe and Mail Company
Contact:  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/168
Page: A12

IT'S GOING TO BE A BLUSTERY FALL

The change in the weather you're feeling is not the approach of autumn
- - it's hot air from Ottawa colliding with the cold front of turbulent
outrage that hangs over modern politics.

And now the news. Parliament is back, and the fall session is going to
be a real doozy. The Trudeau government has a startling number of
hot-button and critical issues on its plate, including NAFTA
negotiations, marijuana legalization and major tax reform. Brace
yourselves: Any one of these on their own could dominate the news
cycle for months.

The Conservative Opposition is stoking the outrage-making machinery,
which is what oppositions are supposed to do. Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau and his cabinet - Finance Minister Bill Morneau, in particular
- - will be on the hot seat in Question Period. It's going to get noisy.
Here's a quick guide to possible takeaways to watch for.

TAX REFORM: Opposition Leader Andrew Scheer says the government's
proposed elimination of tax loopholes available to small businesses
and individuals that incorporate is a threat to economic growth and
job creation, and nothing more than a tax grab. "I won't just stand by
and let the Liberals drive them into the ground," he says.

Posturing and catastrophizing aside, this is an important fiscal
issue. It is perfectly legitimate for a government to close loopholes
that are exploited unfairly by a wide range of interests, even if
those loopholes have reasonable benefits when used by the smaller
group for whom they were originally intended.

It's not a black-and-white issue. There are people who will pay higher
taxes if the changes are implemented who nonetheless publicly support
them, because they feel they are fair.

But this is not just about fairness, as the government claims.
Fairness in taxation is hard to define. Why lower or raise the
marginal tax rate for some income earners and not others? Why close
one loophole and not another? Is this part of a serious effort to
reform the tax code with a view to making everyone pay their just
share, or a one-off for political gain? Why this? Why now?

These are questions the government hasn't answered. Prizing out the
Liberals' motives for this fiscally defensible, if politically
mystifying, reform should be a life goal for anyone watching
Parliament this fall.

MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION: This is another important and legitimate
issue, and it's one that other countries are dealing with, too. Pot
busts clog up the courts and saddle good people with criminal records
in jurisdictions where marijuana is illegal, and all the profits go to
organized crime.

The Trudeau government has responded by proposing to legalize and
regulate recreational pot consumption - a far better answer than the
previous government's tough-on-crime stance. The problem is that,
under the current proposed legislation, pot will be legal as of next
July, and much remains unsettled.

Some of the provinces, which will be responsible for the sale and
distribution of pot, are lagging behind in their preparations. Some
police forces are also uncertain they will be ready.

Meanwhile, the foreign legal liabilities for companies that get
involved in pot production here are unknown. There are questions about
whether or not pot companies with U.S. investors will be able to trade
on Canadian stock exchanges.

The Trudeau government is bringing about a revolution in Canadian drug
culture in the space of two years. It has put forward a defensible
policy but may have failed to foresee the logistical difficulties
involved in implementing it across so many jurisdictions. It will be
interesting to see whether this government has the spine required for
it to stick to its timetable.

NAFTA: U.S. President Donald Trump says he will tear up the North
American free-trade agreement if it doesn't get renegotiated in ways
that favour his country. But this is also a man who is for the
deportation of the children of immigrants, and against it; who is a
Republican and also a Democrat; who may build a wall on the Mexican
border or just renovate parts of the existing fencework; who hates
Obamacare but wants Americans to have all the healthcare benefits
provided by Obamacare, and so on.

In other words, please be patient. Our federal government is doing its
best. It has done a smart job of building alliances with the right
people in the U.S., and our negotiators have stuck to their guns on
important NAFTA clauses.

But no one should lose sight of the fact that this is a critical
moment for Canada. Any failure of the NAFTA talks would punch a giant
hole in our economy - one that would make the closing of a loophole
here or there feel like a gnat bite in comparison.

We'd feel better if the Trudeau government was able to focus on NAFTA
alone, and wasn't going to be distracted by controversies it has
inflicted upon itself.
- ---
MAP posted-by: Matt