Pubdate: Mon, 01 Aug 2016
Source: Desert Sun, The (Palm Springs, CA)
Copyright: 2016 The Desert Sun
Contact:  http://www.desertsun.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/1112
Author: Laurel Rosenhall, CALmatters
Note: CALmatters is a non-profit journalism venture dedicated to 
exploring state policy and politics. For more stories by Laurel 
Rosenhall, go to calmatters.org/newsanalysis

CALIFORNIA MILLENNIALS SURGING: HUGE GENERATION COULD CAST DECISIVE 
VOTES, ESPECIALLY ON MARIJUANA

As they come of age and register to vote, Millennials-that enormous 
generation born since 1981 - are surging so fast they're on the verge 
of overtaking the Baby Boomer behemoth as a share of the California 
electorate. And new evidence confirms that, so far at least, the GOP 
is losing them.

Fewer than 1 out of every 5 Millennial voters in California is 
registered as a Republican. Not that the Republicans' loss is the 
Democrats' gain. Recent voter data shows that Millennials are the 
driving force behind the huge growth in Californians registering with 
no party affiliation at all. They're also more optimistic than other 
generations - the latest polls show them more approving than their 
elders of the job the Legislature is doing, and far more supportive 
of the direction in which California is headed.

Their emerging dominance means that 20- and 30-somethings are 
well-positioned this year to influence several critical questions - 
including the generational changing-of-the-guard as two Democrats 
compete to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, and the fate of 
17 ballot measures covering issues as varied as the death penalty, 
gun control and marijuana.

As for the state issue over which Millennials are most likely to 
visibly wield their power, many people point to Proposition 64, the 
initiative to legalize recreational use of weed. That was the 
prediction of Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Dublin, as he addressed a recent 
UC Berkeley conference focused on the generation. "So I hope young 
people show up" to vote, he said, "Because once California legalizes 
marijuana, I think the rest of the country is going to follow."

Millennials today make up 29 percent of the state's registered 
voters, the second largest share among five living generations. Only 
Baby Boomers, at 32 percent, comprise a bigger bloc - for now.

"You've got to think of Millennials as essentially becoming the 
largest single segment of the electorate," said Paul Mitchell, vice 
president of Political Data, Inc., who analyzed California voter 
registration data by generation.

Their dominance among California registered voters has been climbing 
steadily since the generation hit voting age in 2000. This spring, 
tech-savvy Millennials propelled a surge in voter registration: 
Nearly 200,000 Californians signed up to vote over two days in May 
when a Facebook campaign linked users to the state's online 
registration portal - and nearly two-thirds of them were 35 or 
younger, according to Secretary of State Alex Padilla.

Now other tech companies are expressing interest in promoting voter 
drives on their platforms, potentially further boosting registration 
among Millennials before the November election. Padilla said he's in 
talks with Google and Twitter.

"It's great to see the social media world really committing to this. 
It's really helpful and powerful," he said.

How potent this generation really is at the polls comes down to one 
question: Will they actually vote? Though young people typically have 
low turnout rates, they could be more motivated this year by the 
turbulent presidential election, which then would have spillover 
impact on California races with long-lasting implications.

"If they vote, I think they will be significant in any number, if not 
all, of the initiatives," said Gale Kaufman, a political consultant 
running campaigns for Proposition 64 to legalize marijuana, and 
Proposition 55 to extend income taxes on the wealthy. "Issues like 
guns, the death penalty and marijuana should evoke a lot of interest 
at the campus level and moving through Millennials. Social issues or 
values issues tend to energize younger voters."

Opponents of marijuana legalization plan to deploy a campaign 
designed to raise concerns about specific aspects of Proposition 64, 
especially those that could be salient to parents. "I think the 
concept polls well, I don't think the details poll well," said Andrew 
Acosta, a political consultant working on the campaign against the initiative.

"Once you start to open this thing a little bit, there might be 
things that turn people off."

Still, many Millennials have their minds made up. Voters age 18 to 34 
favor legalizing marijuana by a 2 to 1 margin, far greater than older 
voters, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll in 
May. Hours before Rep. Swalwell passionately endorsed the measure in 
Berkeley, one conference participant said it was the only initiative 
on California's long ballot this year that he was aware of - and he 
plans to vote "yes."

"We've had medicinal marijuana in California for about 20 years," 
said Chris Johnigan, 29, a substitute teacher who lives in the Bay 
Area. "It seems like we're past due to have it legalized on a 
recreational level."

Marijuana legalization may be the first issue in which Millennial 
voters cast the decisive votes in California. But it certainly won't 
be the last.
- ---
MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom