Pubdate: Tue, 10 Nov 2015
Source: Arizona Republic (Phoenix, AZ)
Copyright: 2015 The Arizona Republic
Contact: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/opinions/sendaletter.html
Website: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/24

STATE'S POT FIGHT MAY BE MOOT

Sheila Polk, the Yavapai County attorney, is perhaps the most 
high-profile person standing against efforts to legalize marijuana in 
Arizona. Her organization, Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy, 
boasts support of dozens of municipal leaders across the state.

But looming developments to our south and west could render pointless 
their crusade to stop Arizona going the way of Colorado, Oregon and 
Washington -- states that have already legalized recreational pot.

Our two biggest neighbors - Mexico and California - are standing on 
the cusp of monumental change that could powerfully pull the state of 
Arizona in its wake.

Last week, the Mexican Supreme Court took the first steps to legalize 
the personal production, possession and recreational consumption of 
marijuana in that country. While the ruling only applies to the four 
plaintiffs, observers of Mexican politics predict this will lead to 
greater relaxation of drugs laws for all in Mexico.

In California, activists could place as many as 10 initiatives on the 
November 2016 ballot to legalize pot in that state.

"California is the jewel in the crown if you favor marijuana 
legalization," Stanford Professor Keith Humphreys told the 
International Business Times. "Politically, it is such a game 
changer. It is such a massive state, and such a wealthy state, that 
when it comes to legalization, there would be no going back."

Should California and Mexico go legal, it would sandwich Arizona 
between a country of 121 million people (Mexico is the 11th most 
populous country in the world) and an American state of nearly 39 
million (a population greater than all but 34 countries in the world) 
that have both legalized pot.

With such huge swings toward legalization, the potential sway on 
Arizona and other western states would be obvious.

California was the first state to legalize medical marijuana in 1996. 
Arizona followed six years later and would have done so sooner had 
the courts green-lighted earlier ballot measures.

You may believe Arizonans are less drawn to the allure of 
legalization than Mexicans, who live in a country virtually defined 
by the narco culture taking over and corrupting so many of its 
institutions and politicians. In fact, Mexicans oppose legal pot more 
than Americans, and are far less likely to use the drug.

The numbers aren't even close.

Support for legalization has finally hit 50 percent in the United 
States, according to recent Gallup polling. And among adults under 
30, it's a whopping 62 percent.

New polls in Mexico show that just 20 percent of people support 
legalization and 77 percent oppose it, reports the BBC. And while 
13.7 percent of the American population smokes marijuana at least 
once a year, only 1.2 percent of Mexicans do the same.

"There is far less drug use in Mexico than in the U.S.," Dr. David 
Shirk, director of the Justice in Mexico project at the University of 
San Diego, told the BBC. "There's also a more socially conservative 
outlook for drug use in Mexico. And as much as it's a place for 
making and moving drugs, it's not been traditionally a place where 
drugs are widely consumed."

In California, the flood of potential ballot initiatives could 
confuse the electorate, who might then knock them all down like 
dominoes. But significant support is coalescing around one 
initiative  the Adult Use Of Marijuana Act -- which reportedly enjoys 
the backing of tech billionaire Sean Parker, founder of Napster and 
first president of Facebook.

Major legalization groups across the country support the measure and 
California's Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the former mayor of San Francisco 
and a candidate for governor in 2018, has just added his support.

Next year, Arizonans will debate the merits and potential downfalls 
of marijuana legalization. None of it may matter.

Larger forces are at work.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom