Pubdate: Mon, 02 Nov 2015
Source: Los Angeles Times (CA)
Copyright: 2015 Los Angeles Times
Contact:  http://www.latimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/248
Authors: Evan Halper and Kurtis Lee

MARIJUANA VOTE MAY BE KEY IN 2016

Public Opinion Is Rapidly Changing. but Legalization Remains a Vexing 
Issue for Most Presidential Hopefuls.

WASHINGTON - Pot is very much on the minds of voters, with millions 
poised to decide whether to legalize it. That raises a tantalizing 
question for presidential candidates: Is there political opportunity 
in the wind?

Some are beginning to believe there is.

The latest sign was the full-throated call last week by Sen. Bernie 
Sanders to end federal prohibition. With that one move, the candidate 
for the Democratic presidential nomination plunged into uncharted 
territory - and, arguably, so did the presidential race.

Never before has a contender with so much to lose so unequivocally 
suggested that smoking a joint should be viewed the same as drinking 
a beer, at least in the eyes of the law.

The move was about more than Sanders' signature straight talk. It 
could give the Vermont senator a much-needed boost in some primary 
states, especially in the West.

Some pollsters and strategists are surprised it has taken this long 
for a leading candidate to promote legalization this forcefully.

"Politicians are terrible at anything new," said Celinda Lake, a 
Washington political strategist who has worked on pot initiatives. 
"They always miss the trends where voters are ahead of them."

She says voter opinion is shifting on marijuana as rapidly as it did 
on same-sex marriage, another issue where lawmakers struggled to keep 
pace with evolving public attitudes.

A new Gallup poll found that 58% of voters say marijuana should be 
legalized, suggesting there is not a lot of risk in embracing it. 
More important, the pot vote draws a demographic highly coveted by 
campaign operatives: It's young, diverse and up for grabs.

But there may be danger in doubling down on the dime bag.

"It can easily be turned against them," said Kevin Sabet, president 
of Smart Approaches to Marijuana, an anti-legalization group.

What happens, he asked, when a pro-pot candidate is confronted at a 
town hall by the parent of a child who had a "psychotic episode" 
after consuming a pot lollipop? "How do you defend against that?"

The candidates are grappling with legalization at the same time that 
drug abuse is a prominent issue in the primaries, with a heroin 
epidemic a key concern of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first 
two states to hold contests.

Republican contender Carly Fiorina has spoken emotionally about 
losing her stepdaughter to addiction.

And there is disagreement among strategists about just how rapidly 
public opinion has shifted in the voting groups that count most in a 
closely contested election, such as Latinos and older women.

"There are too many battleground states where it is still 
controversial," said Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster.

Sanders framed his language carefully. "Too many Americans have seen 
their lives destroyed because they have criminal records as a result 
of marijuana use," he said at George Mason University in Virginia on 
Wednesday. "That's wrong. That has got to change."

He said he would take marijuana off the federal government's list of 
illegal drugs, leaving states free to regulate it the way they do 
alcohol and tobacco.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, a Republican, has taken a similar plunge, 
but the stakes are higher for Sanders, who is far more popular with voters.

Other candidates are fumbling their way forward.

Hillary Rodham Clinton has told small audiences in the pot havens of 
Oregon and Colorado that marijuana businesses in states where it is 
legal need relief from federal restrictions that can make it 
impossible for them to operate.

Yet her campaign refused to accept a donation from the cannabis 
industry's trade group, and in the first Democratic debate she took a 
"wait and see" position.

Some Republicans, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio 
Gov. John Kasich, aggressively oppose legalization. Christie, a 
former federal prosecutor, has taken the hardest line, vowing a 
crackdown. Other Republicans say they would let states continue experimenting.

"Politicians have been three steps behind the public on this," said 
Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), a leading legalization proponent in 
Congress. "The train is already leaving the station. There is huge 
opportunity. It is going to be on the ballot in swing states."

The impact on political candidates was unclear when legalization came 
before voters last year. Alaskans voted to legalize recreational use 
while also electing a Republican senator, Dan Sullivan, who opposed the move.

Oregonians also voted to legalize, while at the same time reelecting 
an incumbent governor, Democrat John Kitzhaber, who did not support 
legalization.

In Florida, Democrats had hoped a popular medical marijuana measure 
would give them the edge in the 2014 governor's race. It didn't. 
Although 58% of voters supported medical marijuana, Republican Rick 
Scott won the gubernatorial election.

Those bullish on the boost that pot can provide say the landscape 
will be dramatically different in 2016, a presidential election year, 
when turnout is expected to be younger and more diverse - and 
candidates like Sanders and Paul are not tiptoeing around the issue.

Legalization for recreational use is expected to be on the ballot in 
Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada.

The state being watched most now, though, is Ohio. Voters in that 
battleground state will decide on a legalization measure Tuesday. 
Candidates will closely monitor the outcome.

"This is the gay marriage issue of the day," said John Morgan, an 
Orlando, Fla., trial lawyer, who spent more than $4 million of his 
own money on the Florida medical pot measure.

It fell short of meeting the state's unusually high threshold of 60% 
for an initiative to pass.

So Morgan is bankrolling another measure for next year.

In late spring, he hosted a fundraiser at his home for Clinton.

"Many of them are not leaders, they're followers," he said of 
politicians. "We saw that on gay marriage and other issues, and now 
we'll probably see it on marijuana at some point. At some point 
they'll say 'whatever' and go along with what's right."
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom