Pubdate: Sun, 21 Dec 2014
Source: Orange County Register, The (CA)
Copyright: 2014 The Orange County Register
Contact:  http://www.ocregister.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/321
Author: Martin Wisckol

CALIFORNIA'S POT ACTIVISTS PREPARE FOR 2016 INITIATIVE

The Landscape Has Changed Since the Issue Went Before California 
Voters in 2010.

California voters shied away from becoming the first in the nation to 
legalize recreational marijuana in 2010, but four states have since 
approved such a law and the eureka state appears primed to join the 
party in 2016.

Polls show public support growing in the state and nation, and 
advocates have repeatedly proven much better at fundraising than 
their foes. With momentum on their side, proponents are targeting 
California and four other states in the next election cycle.

"People's attitudes are changing and it's happening much more quickly 
than we would have thought five years ago," said Corey Cook, a 
political scientist at the University of San Francisco.

But passage is not a slam dunk. Proponents outspent opponents 12-1 on 
the state's Proposition 19 legalization proposal in 2010 and still 
lost by 7 percentage points. If there's significant negative fallout 
from the laws taking effect in other states - such as impaired 
drivers or kids showing up in the hospital after eating their 
parents' pot brownies - it will probably affect voter sentiment.

Additionally, proponents' plans to tackle five states in one election 
cycle will require substantially more money and more coordination 
than previous efforts. Advocates went after just two states in 2012 
and two plus the District of Columbia in 2014.

Key will be the ability of the major pot groups to operate as a 
coalition. One group - usually either the Marijuana Policy Project or 
the Drug Policy Alliance - has been at the helm in each place the 
laws have passed.

But California is five times the size of Washington, the largest 
state so far to have approved the change. And uncoordinated efforts 
by several groups and individuals failed to qualify a measure for the 
California ballot in 2012 and in 2014.

"The groups are going to have to set aside their desire for ownership 
for the larger goal," said Amanda Reiman, a UC Berkeley sociology 
professor and manager of the DPA's Marijuana Law and Policy Unit.

Already, the Marijuana Policy Project, the Drug Policy Alliance and 
the Coalition for Cannabis Policy Reform - which includes the 
National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws  have begun 
discussions about the ballot measure's language and campaign 
strategy, according to Reiman.

Opponents, led by law enforcement, acknowledge that they aren't yet 
as organized and will have difficulty raising money.

"It's going to be a challenge to us," said Orange County Sheriff 
Sandra Hutchens. "We really need to get our act together. If we have 
the opportunity to get our message out - the impact it has on our 
children - with help from the academic community and the medical 
community, we have a chance.

"But (proponents) have a big lobby. They can raise a lot of money. 
California sheriffs and California police chiefs don't have big PACs. 
If law enforcement does it alone in the campaign, it won't work."

Lessons learned

California appeared poised in 2010 to become the first state in the 
U.S. to legalize recreational marijuana, just as it became the first 
state in 1996 to legalize medical marijuana and was among the first 
to decriminalize cannabis in the mid-1970s.

Polls showed voters' support of 2010's Prop. 19 grew from 49 percent 
in May to 50 percent in July to 51 percent in September.

Then reality set in.

It's not uncommon for support of ballot measures to fade in the weeks 
before an election, as voters learn more about the details. This was 
the case with Prop. 19, with two particular weaknesses coming to light.

One was the measure's plan to allow cities and counties to come up 
with their own permitting provisions, which was criticized as a 
willy-nilly approach that would lead to confusion.

Perhaps more critically, the proposal would have virtually eliminated 
employers' ability to not hire potential employees or to discipline 
current employees if they tested positive for marijuana use.

"Even Californians who support the legalization of marijuana should 
be extremely wary of Proposition 19," wrote the San Francisco 
Chronicle in its editorial urging a "no" vote.

Legalization proponents seem to have learned a lesson. In the four 
states where recreational marijuana is legal, the state handles 
licensing. Cities and counties have control over lesser aspects of 
the law, including where pot shops can locate and how many will be allowed.

None of the four new laws alters employers' ability to make hiring 
and discipline decisions based on marijuana testing.

"I do think that both these issues will be carefully considered for 
this next measure," said Kandice Hawes-Lopez, executive director of 
Orange County NORML, indicating that California would likely follow 
the models of the successful measures in when it comes to those two 
particulars.

Proponents argue that regulating and taxing marijuana similar to 
alcohol would end prohibition on a widespread practice, create better 
controls for the drug, allow law enforcement to focus on more serious 
crimes, generate tax revenue and provide a legal, safer alternative to alcohol.

Opponents counter that little time or effort is spent in California 
enforcing and jailing those who possess marijuana for personal use, 
and that tax revenue is not a good reason for legalizing a drug. 
Driving impairment is also a problem. And because taxes hike the cost 
of legal pot, a black market would continue, they say.

"I think the public equates it to alcohol and some say marijuana is 
not as bad as alcohol," Hutchens said. "I don't think that's so. Even 
though it would be for adults, it sends a message to young people 
that it's OK. And while some people won't go farther than marijuana, 
in some cases there will be escalation to other things."

Polls show that Democrats are far more likely to support legalization 
than Republicans, but the state's top Democrat expressed his 
reservations in a March interview on "Meet the Press."

"How many people can get stoned and still have a great state or a 
great nation?" Gov. Jerry Brown asked, adding that he's watching to 
see how legalization works out in Colorado and Washington.

"I'd really like those two states to show us how it's going to work," 
he said. "I think we need to stay alert, if not 24 hours a day, more 
than some of the potheads might be able to put together."

The money game

Opponents' shortcomings with fundraising means difficulty in getting 
their message out with campaign ads.

Prop. 19 backers raised $4 million to opponents' $320,000, according 
to the nonprofit government watchdog Maplight. Reiman said for the 
2016 effort, proponents hope to raise $8 million to $10 million  not 
that much more than the $6 million proponents in the much smaller 
state of Washington brought in for their 2012 campaign.

Opponents in Washington raised just $16,000.

The David-and-Goliath fundraising scenario played out this year as 
well, with opponents outspending foes in Oregon by 25-1 and in Alaska 
by 9-1, according to a New York Times analysis.

"Marijuana has been around and people are getting used to it," said 
Irvine's Dick Ackerman, a former state senator who campaigned against 
Prop. 19 and remains ardently opposed to similar measures. "Unless 
the business community and churches step up, there's probably not 
going to be much money to fight it."

In 2010, Virginia anti-marijuana activist Julie Schauer pitched in 
$50,000 against Prop. 19, making her the top donor for the "No" side. 
Next was the California Police Chiefs Association, with $49,999. The 
California Chamber of Commerce was the leading business donor at 
$16,000, largely because of its opposition to the restrictions on 
disciplining employees who failed drug tests.

Proponents had 10 individuals who gave more than $70,000, including 
Bay Area cannabis entrepreneur S.K. Seymour at $1.5 million and 
liberal activist George Soros at $1 million.

Unlike the battle against same-sex marriage, there has been no 
grass-roots uprising against legal marijuana, no equivalent of the 
Mormon and evangelical churches involvement in 2008's Prop. 8 ban on 
the unions.

But the legalization of recreational marijuana does mirror trends 
seen in the same-sex marriage debate.

"It's similar in a lot of ways," Cook said. "It's spreading across 
the country and younger voters are more likely to favor it. And 
you're seeing moderate and libertarian Republicans changing their 
mind and supporting it."

[sidebar]

Steps to qualify for the ballot

1. Those wanting to place an initiative on the November 2016 ballot 
have until Oct. 2, 2015, to submit their proposal to the state.

2. Once the proposal has been cleared by the attorney general's 
office, petition signature gathering begins. That task will be a bit 
easier than in recent years because of the record-low turnout in the 
last statewide election.

3. For an initiative statute like the pot legalization proposal, 
proponents will need to gather the signatures of registered voters 
equal to 5 percent of the total votes cast for governor. That comes 
to 365,879 signatures, down from 504,760.

4. Those signatures will be due to the state by April 22, 2016, or 
earlier, depending on when the proposal is submitted to the state and 
when it is cleared for signature gathering.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom