Pubdate: Mon, 22 Sep 2014
Source: Sun Times, The (Owen Sound, CN ON)
Copyright: 2014 Owen Sound Sun Times
Contact: http://www.owensoundsuntimes.com/letters
Website: http://www.owensoundsuntimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/1544
Author: Michael Warren
Page: A5

TRUDEAU, THE BLOOPER TROOPER

So far Tory attack ads on Justin Trudeau have not hurt the Liberal
leader, but their effect may yet come

Ever since Justin Trudeau won its leadership in early 2013, the
Liberal party has led in the polls. The latest average of all polls
shows the Liberals at 39% of popular support, the Conservatives at 32%
and the NDP trailing with 19%.

Canadians seem to be enamoured with Trudeau's sunny disposition, his
good looks and his positive approach to politics. It's made him the
No. 1 target of the Conservative attack machine.

In the past the Conservatives have excelled at defining Liberal
leaders before they could define themselves. Stephane Dion was "not
worth the risk" and Michael Ignatieff was "just visiting." But Trudeau
is proving to be a much harder target to undermine.

Last year, the Tories thought they'd found his key weakness:
inexperience. They ran TV ads for more than a year claiming he was
"not ready to govern" - a political neophyte incapable of running the
country now, or ever.

But Forum Research showed the ad campaign backfired, and badly.

Half of those who saw the ads said the spots would likely make them
vote Liberal, not Conservative. Of those who had previously voted
Tory, a quarter said the ads made them want to vote Liberal.

Undaunted, the Conservative war room looked for other shortcomings.
They noticed that in unscripted moments Trudeau has a tendency to say
what they thought were dumb things.

For example, he said, "There's a level of admiration I have actually
for China. Their basic dictatorship is actually allowing them to turn
their economy around on a dime."

Prime Minister Stephen Harper tried for weeks to make Trudeau sound
like a supporter of dictatorships. The public seemed to understand
Trudeau was simply acknowledging China's economic progress.

On the day of the Boston Marathon bombings, Trudeau said, "But there
is no question that this has happened because there is someone who
feels completely excluded." He went on to emphasize the importance of
looking at "root causes" of terrorism.

Again, the Conservatives pounced. Their ad read, "How can someone who
makes excuses for terrorists keep Canadians safe?" It wasn't long
before this line of attack was abandoned. As events unfolded, it
became clear that identifying root causes was a widespread concern. In
retrospect, Trudeau's comments didn't sound so ill-informed.

In August, the Tory war room thought they'd finally found something
that would hurt Trudeau. They accused him of supporting terrorists
because of a visit he'd made to a mosque in his riding.

Federal Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney lashed out, "It is
completely unacceptable that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau would
associate with a group that allegedly radicalizes Canadians to join
al-Qaida, and engage in acts of unspeakable violent extremism. Now he
is pandering for votes amongst religious extremists in our own
communities. It is clear that Justin Trudeau cannot be trusted to keep
Canadians safe."

Then the facts emerged.

Trudeau had visited the mosque in March 2011 as an ordinary MP
reaching out to religious organizations in his riding. Some time after
his visit, a U.S. Intelligence report came to light that said some
"known al-Qaida members were recruited, facilitated or trained"
through the mosque a decade earlier.

As an MP Trudeau would not have known whether CSIS or the RCMP had a
secret file on the Al-Sunnah Al-Nabawiah mosque. And, if such a file
existed, why hadn't Harper taken action against these alleged
"religious extremists" years ago?

This year's relentless "Reefer Madness" Tory attack ads starring
Trudeau have been effective with the Conservatives' core supporters.
The number of Conservative donors dramatically increased as did the
party's financial haul during the campaign. The ad attempts to brand
Trudeau as a threat to young Canadians because of his policy
advocating legalization of marijuana.

But Ekos pollster Frank Graves makes a telling point. "Money is always
nice to have, but if you are out there stimulating fundraising at the
expense of alienating parts of the spectrum that you absolutely need
to win government, then you've got to wonder how smart that is."

Forum Research found that relaxing the marijuana rules is
overwhelmingly favoured by the broader spectrum that Graves mentioned:
70% of Canadians say they want legalization or decriminalization of
marijuana. The Liberal leader is on the right side of this issue.

So far, Trudeau seems to have deflected attempts to label him as not
ready to govern, soft on China, making excuses for terrorists and a
threat to young Canadians. But political attack ads don't always work
right away.

Sometimes they lie dormant until the target begins to show signs of
alleged weaknesses.

The electorate seems to have overlooked Trudeau's lack of experience.
But if, for example, he acts or speaks in a way that shows, even
briefly, that he is "in over his head," the preconditioned public
could react with a vengeance.

Just because Trudeau has led in the polls for months and seems immune
to Tory attack ads doesn't mean Canadians are prepared to give him the
keys to 24 Sussex Drive. As the 2015 election grows closer, Trudeau
will have to present a more compelling policy platform and demonstrate
he has the personal substance and depth of judgment required to run a
G7 country. Not an easy task.

(R. Michael Warren is a former corporate director, Ontario deputy 
minister, TTC chief general manager and Canada Post CEO.)
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MAP posted-by: Matt