Pubdate: Fri, 22 Aug 2014
Source: Vancouver Sun (CN BC)
Page: A1
Copyright: 2014 Postmedia Network Inc.
Contact:  http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/477
Author: Peter O'Neil

POT CHALLENGE: LEGALIZE WHILE KEEPING KIDS SAFE

The Conservatives Think It's Impossible. Justin Trudeau's Liberals
Disagree

OTTAWA - Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives are warning
Canadians that Justin Trudeau wants to make weed "more accessible to
kids" by displaying and selling it in neighbourhood stores.

Nonsense, the Liberal leader replies. Canadian youth already have easy
access to the prohibited substance despite the Conservatives'
hard-line approach to drugs. A regulated regime that legalizes
cannabis, the Liberals claim, will actually make access tougher.

"We are failing to protect our kids from the effects of marijuana,"
Trudeau said in an interview.

The debate, a textbook wedge issue sure to polarize voters in the 2015
election, appears to be resting on a simple question: How would
legalization affect Canada's youth consumption rate that is already
the highest in the western world?

There's no simple answer, say experts, because if a future Liberal
government fulfils Trudeau's highest-profile promise, Canada will be
doing something no western developed country has ever dared try.

So while both experts and advocates for and against prohibition speak
with certainty about what they expect will happen, there's no model on
which to base conclusions that back up either Conservative or Liberal
claims.

"There's no evidence that (legalization and regulation) won't impact
youth, but there's also no evidence that it will," said Rebecca
Jesseman, a policy analyst with the Health Canada-funded Canadian
Centre on Substance Abuse.

She said a well-regulated regime - which banned advertising and
marketing, gave young Canadians information on the effects of cannabis
on developing brains, and used taxes to keep prices relatively high -
has the potential to prevent an increase in youth consumption.

"Absolutely, in an ideal world you can design a perfect system," she
said.

But the reality is that even the best system can't remove the likely
role played by organized crime in continuing to supply cheaper
black-market product to youth, she said.

Stanford University law professor Rob MacCoun suspects the Liberal
proposal will lead to increased youth consumption, though he also
agrees that his views amount to informed speculation.

"We're really in uncharted territory," said MacCoun, author of several
academic studies assessing the effect of liberalized marijuana laws in
jurisdictions like the Netherlands and several U.S. states.

"If Canada is somehow able to thread the needle and restrict
availability, ban advertising, and somehow keep prices from falling,
then I think it could have an experience more like what we are seeing
in the Netherlands - modest levels of use not unlike their
neighbours."

While there are plenty of unknowns about the Liberal plan, what is
clear is that the poll-leading party has made clear it wants to not
just decriminalize but legalize and regulate the industry.

That goes much further than the New Democratic Party, which favours
decriminalization of possession of small amounts of pot, and the
Conservatives, who are considering a ticketing and fine system for
possession but oppose legalization or decriminalization.

It's a huge difference, because legalization represents a government
attempt to scoop through the tax system the bulk of the huge profits
that now flow to organized crime groups like the Hells Angels.

The Netherlands is perhaps the best-known example of a liberalized
regime, that has regulated retail sales of small amounts since the
1970s. But trafficking remains illegal and police action against
organized crime, as well as other restrictions imposed on the
country's famous coffee houses, have kept prices high.

Price as well as availability are key determinants in consumption
patterns, according to MacCoun.

Colorado and Washington have both recently legalized cannabis, as has
Uruguay. But experts say it's far too early to determine the effect.

Neither U.S. state will necessarily be the model Canada would be
expected to follow, since both are allowing advertising and marketing
- - factors influencing use. As well, prices are expected to go down
sharply as companies overcome start-up costs, according to MacCoun.

Liberal deputy leader Ralph Goodale, in an interview Wednesday,
ridiculed the Conservative allegation that Trudeau wants to make pot
more easily available to kids.

But he said the exact details of his party's proposal - on how it
would regulate sales, tax the product, put controls on the potency
levels, and educate youth about the known dangers of toking - won't be
made public until the election platform is released.

What is clear, according to Goodale, is that the Conservatives' talk
about keeping pot out of kids' hands is belied by the statistics.

One UNICEF study said Canada's rate was highest among a selection of
developed countries both in 2001-02, when 40 per cent of 11-, 13- and
15-year-olds reported smoking pot over the past year, and 2009-10,
when the figure dropped to 28 per cent..

"The current system is just not working," he said.

MacCoun, who strongly endorses decriminalization but says he's
"agnostic" on legalization, said the biggest problem with the Liberal
proposal is the difficulty in keeping the price from falling sharply.

His studies have suggested that, post-legalization, the cost of an
ounce of weed could plunge more than 80 per cent. That's because of
the considerable cost criminals face in producing and trafficking
large amounts of an illegal substance.

"When you take that away, you're left with a weed that just doesn't
cost that much to produce."

While authorities could theoretically impose an 80 per cent tax on pot
to keep prices at current levels, that would keep the door open to
black market operators who would be able to function knowing they'd no
longer face criminal sanctions if caught violating regulations, he
said.

Neil Boyd, head of the criminology department at Simon Fraser
University, challenges MacCoun's assumption that youth consumption
will likely increase.

"Eighty per cent of Canadians and Americans use alcohol, but less than
10 per cent use cannabis, and it's not clear that price drops would
lead to increases in consumption, as the price of a cannabis high is
already very cheap," he told The Sun.

"A joint costs about five dollars on the illegal market and three
people can get high from that joint - much cheaper than an alcohol
high. And yet alcohol remains very much the intoxicant of choice in
our culture."

Boyd also questioned whether organized crime would have a major role
to play in a post-legalization world.

"If criminal controls are rescinded, it's just too easy for anyone to
grow pot, and unlike the u-brew beer and wine stores, the quality will
be easily good enough to meet the demands of the market," he said.

"So the economic future of the marijuana industry is tiny, in contrast
to the economic value of the alcohol industry."

MacCoun doesn't preclude the possibility Canada could create a
successful regime, and he said even if pot usage increases that
wouldn't be a bad thing if - and it's a big if - that increase was
offset by declining alcohol abuse.

He noted that a 2012 national survey found that seven per cent of
Americans age 12 and older used marijuana in the past month, so a
doubling would put usage at roughly the same level as it was in 1979.
Meanwhile, 26 per cent used tobacco and 52 per cent used alcohol over
the past month, according to the 2012 survey.

MacCoun said Canada's public health system is well-suited to play a
role in the developed world's first effort at the national level to
legalize and regulate cannabis, he said.

Canada could "become the new model, and you'll see some countries in
Europe follow suit very quickly. There are a lot of countries looking
at this."  
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MAP posted-by: Jo-D