Pubdate: Sun, 13 Jul 2014
Source: San Francisco Chronicle (CA)
Copyright: 2014 Hearst Communications Inc.
Contact: http://www.sfgate.com/chronicle/submissions/#1
Website: http://www.sfgate.com/chronicle/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/388
Author: Beau Kilmer
Page: E5

TAKING A SOBER LOOK AT LEGALIZING MARIJUANA

Marijuana is in the news and you should get used to it. Washington
state's retail marijuana stores opened Tuesday and Alaska will vote on
legalization in November. Throw in monthly revenue updates from
Colorado as well as perpetual exposes about marijuana edibles and
e-joints, and you are going to get your weekly pot fix whether you
like it or not.

And this is only going to intensify over time.

California and a handful of other states will probably vote on legal
pot in 2016. Whether it passes will depend on several factors,
including the quality of the proposal, how much money is involved in
the campaigns, and how things play out in Colorado, Washington and
other places that have legalized production and sales. For states that
will probably decide on marijuana policy, here are five suggestions to
help policymakers who want to promote productive discussions:

1. Collect baseline information about the size of the marijuana market
in your state. Credible projections about how legalization could
influence use and tax revenues must be rooted in rigorous and
transparent estimates of how much marijuana is currently being
consumed. Without these numbers, pot debates can get hijacked by wild
overestimates. While it is hard to estimate the value of a black
market, there is an emerging science about how to do this for marijuana.

2. Collaborate with health agencies to determine what share of drug
survey respondents are honest about using marijuana. This is not only
critical for sizing the current market; legalization will also be
evaluated by whether self-reported marijuana use increases after the
change. If legalization reduces the stigma of marijuana and leads
people to be more honest, then this could complicate these studies.
There is a precedent for validating self-report surveys with drug
tests, but those analyses are outdated. They need to be updated and
conducted at the sub-national level, preferably by state.

3. Recognize that the Colorado and Washington approach of "regulating
marijuana like alcohol" is only one alternative to marijuana
prohibition. There is a lot of policy space between the extremes of
prohibition and a commercialized industry. For example, states could
start slowly and allow marijuana to be produced only by nonprofit
organizations, or in co-ops, as is done in Spain and will soon happen
in Uruguay. Creating a state monopoly for marijuana production and
distribution is another option, but federal marijuana laws make this
infeasible.

4. Make it clear that marijuana policy changes do not have to be
permanent. Pioneering jurisdictions could include a sunset clause
where, after a certain number of years, they decide whether to
continue down that path or try something different. At a minimum,
serious amounts of flexibility should be built into the policy so it
is not hard to make midcourse corrections, especially with respect to
setting taxes.

5. Remind your constituents and colleagues that reasonable people can
disagree about marijuana policy. Individuals have different values
about intoxication and personal liberties, and there is uncertainty
about how legalization will affect health. It not only depends on how
legalization affects marijuana consumption patterns, but also on how
it affects alcohol use. The science right now is unclear as to whether
a change in marijuana policy will lead to more or less alcohol
consumption. Acknowledging this before diving into legalization
debates can help take the edge off this issue and hopefully promote
useful discussions.

Bottom line:

In states like California where legalization votes are likely,
policymakers should be proactive about informing these debates. These
five tips are a place to start.

Beau Kilmer is co-director of the Rand Drug Policy Research Center
and co-author of "Marijuana Legalization: What Everyone Needs to Know," 
(Oxford University Press, 2012).
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MAP posted-by: Matt