Pubdate: Thu, 27 Feb 2014
Source: Guelph Mercury (CN ON)
Copyright: 2014 Metroland Media Group Ltd.
Contact:  http://www.guelphmercury.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/1418
Author: Joshua Keating
Page: A11

ARREST OF DRUG LORD 'EL CHAPO' COULD LEAD TO MORE VIOLENCE IN MEXICO

The arrest of the powerful and elusive Sinaloa Cartel boss Joaquin (El
Chapo) Guzman will, for at least a short time, be a major notch in the
belt for the government of Enrique Pena Nieto, who promised to reduce
Mexico's drug violence after the carnage that took place under his
predecessor, Felipe Calderon.

During Calderon's tenure, nearly 60,000 Mexicans lost their lives in
drug-related violence.

Pena Nieto has promised to focus more attention on the economic causes
of drug violence rather than just breaking the cartels, but he still
likely relishes the sight of men like Guzman - or Zetas boss Miguel
Angel Trevino Morales, who was arrested last summer - in handcuffs.

The government also points to the murder rate, which had begun to
level off in 2012 and now appears to be declining. There are also
visible improvements in places like Ciudad Juarez, the U.S. border
city that was once ground zero for gang violence but is showing signs
of improvement.

Mexicans are now far less likely to report daily experiences with drug
violence.

But the country is hardly out of the woods. According to the
government's statistics, the 18 per cent drop in murders in 2013 was
accompanied by a 35 per cent increase in kidnapping. And Molly Molloy,
a research librarian and a specialist on Latin America and the
U.S.-Mexico border at the New Mexico State University Library, argues
that the declining murder rate is the result of the country's
statistical agencies classifying fewer killings as "intentional
homicides," coupled with the fact that "the epicentres of extreme
violence have dispersed around the country, making it more difficult
to know how many people are dying." She argues that there's no
evidence to suggest the total number of murders has declined at all,
though different regions have seen changes in the level of violence.

With street prices of cocaine, heroin and marijuana continuing to fall
in the United States at the same time the number of seizures is
increasing, there also doesn't seem to have been much of an impact on
supply.

It also seems plausible that Guzman's capture could lead to an uptick
in violence. The Sinaloas have reached an extraordinary level of
dominance, largely edging out their rivals for control of the
smuggling corridors of Tijuana and Juarez. They are thought to control
most of the Pacific coast and central Mexico as well as having assets
in every continent on earth. According to a Bloomberg investigation
last year, they supply "heroin, cocaine, marijuana and
methamphetamine" in Chicago.

This dominance wasn't easy to come by. In particular, the battle with
the Zetas for control of Juarez may have cost 10,000 lives between
2010 and 2013. If Juarez is more peaceful today, it's probably partly
because the Sinaloas have fewer serious rivals to fight with.

But with Guzman now out of the picture - assuming the authorities can
actually hold on to him this time - one of the world's most lucrative
criminal empires may be vulnerable to competition again, not to
mention the likelihood of intracartel violence as rival leaders seek
to maintain control over supply routes. And keep in mind, the Sinaloas
actually have a reputation for being less brutally violent than their
rivals the Zetas, or Michoacan's Knights Templar.

Guzman may be the biggest arrest yet in the eight years of the drug
war. But putting famous men in handcuffs every few months hasn't had
much success as a strategy so far.

Joshua Keating is a staff writer at the online magazine Slate, focusing
on international news, social science and related topics. He was
previously an editor at Foreign Policy magazine.
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