Pubdate: Sat, 21 Dec 2013
Source: Herald, The (Everett, WA)
Copyright: 2013 Associated Press
Contact:  http://www.heraldnet.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/190
Author: Gene Johnson, Associated Press

QUESTION FOR POT: HOW MUCH?

SEATTLE (AP) - Figuring out how much marijuana people use has been 
one of the trickiest, and most important, questions facing the 
bureaucrats who are setting up Washington state's new legal pot system.

Underestimate demand, and marijuana fans might stick with their black 
market dealers. Overestimate it, and the surplus legal production 
could wind up being diverted out of state, or to kids.

Now, researchers working with the state's official pot consultant 
think they have their best look yet at cannabis consumption in 
Washington - aided by a novel survey aimed at figuring out how much 
the heaviest users of marijuana burn on a typical day. In a study 
released Wednesday, a RAND Corp. team figured that Washington's 
roughly 750,000 marijuana users will have consumed between 135 and 
225 metric tons of the drug in 2013.

The median figure they came up with is 175 metric tons. That's more 
than 6 million ounces, enough for around 340 million joints, and more 
than twice what the state estimated before voters approved 
Washington's legal weed law last year.

But officials have been aware since June that RAND's researchers were 
headed toward the higher number, and they say the new study won't 
require any sudden changes to the rollout of the state system.

"That's the ballpark of what we're looking at with our system," said 
Brian Smith, a spokesman for the state Liquor Control Board, the 
agency charged with regulating marijuana in Washington.

Washington and Colorado legalized the possession of marijuana by 
adults over 21 last year, and both states are setting up systems of 
state-licensed growers, processors and retail stores where taxed pot 
will be available. Sales are expected to begin Jan. 1 in Colorado, 
while Washington isn't expected to have stores open until late 
spring. The U.S. Justice Department is allowing the experiments to 
proceed as long as the states keep pot away from the black market and 
children, and meet other federal law enforcement priorities.

In Washington, officials are not hoping to capture the entire 
marijuana market in the first year of legal recreational sales. 
Instead, they're looking at having state-licensed growers produce 80 
metric tons of marijuana, half for use as traditional dried buds and 
half for use in producing marijuana-infused products.

RAND's study, "Before the Grand Opening," aims to take a snapshot of 
pot use here on the eve of legal sales. It found that half of the 
marijuana used in the state is consumed in the state's three most 
populous counties. King County, which includes Seattle, accounts for 
about 30 percent, while Pierce to the south and Snohomish to the 
north account for about 11 percent each.

The study drew on national, government funded surveys, but the 
researchers also conducted their own online survey of marijuana users 
to address a gap in the national research: How much marijuana do 
people use when they use it, especially because pot is often shared? 
One of the primary national surveys on drug use stopped asking people 
how many joints they smoked nearly 20 years ago, noted RAND study 
author Beau Kilmer.

Especially important is figuring out how much pot is smoked by 
consumers who use it more than 21 days per month, Kilmer said. That 
relatively small segment of the market accounts for about 80 percent 
of all marijuana used, according to earlier research, and there's 
still a lot to learn about those users, he said.

"If you can get a good idea about what those heavy users use, you can 
get a pretty good idea about the size of the market," he said.

The team determined an online survey was the best way on a relatively 
tight deadline to get an idea of how much pot people use, despite 
limitations such as the self-selection of participants in the survey 
and the possibility of insincere respondents - "scoundrels," the 
authors called them - trying to throw off the results. Ultimately, 
the authors developed ways to try to flag such responses.

The pot users were shown pictures depicting a gram or half-gram of 
marijuana next to a credit card and a coin for scale - an unusual 
idea aimed at improving the accuracy of their responses about how 
much they use. Nearly 64 percent of the 2,783 respondents from 
Washington state reported using pot at least 21 days per month, 
typically 1.3 to 1.9 grams per day on each day that they used, the report said.

A gram of marijuana often sells for $10 to $12 in Washington.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom