Pubdate: Mon, 20 May 2013
Source: Patriot-News, The (PA)
Copyright: 2013 The Patriot-News
Contact: http://www.pennlive.com/mailforms/patriotletters/
Website: http://www.pennlive.com/patriotnews/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/1630
Authors: Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young
Note: Madonna is professor of Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall 
College. Young is a former professor of Politics and Public Affairs 
at Penn State University and managing partner of Michael Young 
Strategic Research

IT'S NOT YOUR GRANDFATHER'S PENNSYLVANIA ANYMORE

When he was asked to describe Pennsylvania, Washington political 
consultant James Carville, who helped elect Pennsylvania Gov. Bob 
Casey and U.S. Sen. Harris Wofford, once declared that the state was 
"Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between." On another 
occasion, he added: "Pennsylvania is two cities separated by Alabama."

Carville's now famous maxim succinctly expressed the conventional 
wisdom--then and now: Pennsylvania is a culturally conservative state 
where tradition is strong, change is slow, and fundamental beliefs 
are enduring. In truth, that description of the state culture was 
probably fair for much of the 20th century.

But the past may no longer be prologue for Pennsylvania.

Indeed, much recent polling in the state strongly suggests a 
long-term dynamic shift is underway in public opinion, especially 
among younger Pennsylvanians--a shift that may foreshadow major 
changes in Pennsylvania's political culture.

The historical assumption that Pennsylvania's voters are hardcore 
cultural conservatives is outdated. The Keystone State simply isn't 
your grandfather's Pennsylvania anymore.

The most recent Franklin & Marshall College poll offers a glimpse of 
why this is occurring by examining voter's attitudes about marijuana, 
gay rights and gun control, all hot button cultural issues that tend 
to clearly locate voters along the conservative-liberal continuum.

Of these, the legalization of marijuana is arguably the litmus test 
of whether one is culturally conservative or liberal. Not 
surprisingly Pennsylvanians still oppose recreation marijuana, 54 
percent oppose while 38 percent approve.

Quite surprising, however, is that support for recreation marijuana 
has increased almost 75 percent in the past seven years. In 2006, 
barely a fifth (22 percent) approved, but approvals now approach four 
in ten Pennsylvania voters (38 percent). Even more dramatic, a 
stunning 72 percent of voters opposed recreational marijuana in 2006; 
today, it is slightly more than half opposing (54 percent).

At this rate of change a majority of Pennsylvanians might favor 
recreational marijuana before this decade ends and possibly sooner.

In fact, other bellwether cultural issues already enjoy majority 
support including medical marijuana, some gun control measures, gay 
marriage, and gay civil unions.

A striking eight in ten voters (82 percent) favor allowing medical 
marijuana if prescribed by a doctor. Almost nine of ten voters (89 
percent) favor universal gun background checks for all gun sales. 
More than half (54 percent) favor gay marriage, while two-thirds (65 
percent) favor civil unions for same-sex couples.

The strongest support for liberal oriented cultural issues tends to 
come from women rather than men, Democrats rather than Republicans, 
college educated voters and younger voters.

But it is the support of younger voters that looms most important. 
Youth is the demographic cohort leading Pennsylvania's liberal 
culturalization. More specifically, dynamically changing attitudes 
toward a cluster of culturally significant issues are being driven by 
young college educated voters living in the eastern half of the state.

Demography may not always be destiny. But when trends are driven by 
younger voters, who are entering or have recently entered the 
electorate, then demographic trends often do portend irreversible 
change. And that is what we see here.

That they are young is significant because over time their generation 
will become a larger and larger part of the total electorate; that 
they are college educated is significant because most of the state's 
future leadership will come from this group; and that they are from 
the eastern part of the state is significant because this is where 
population growth is occurring in Pennsylvania.

But while young voters are leading this parade they are far from 
comprising the entire parade. Support for gay marriage for example is 
a solid 55% in Philadelphia, but it is an overwhelming 70 percent in 
the Philadelphia suburbs. Even in the less than liberal Central 
Pennsylvania area, support for gay marriage is just short of a 
majority (49 percent).

Only in western Pennsylvania outside of Allegheny County,and in some 
rural areas of the state do the more traditional views on marijuana, 
gun control measures, and gay unions prevail. And these areas, as 
noted, are growing slowly if at all compared to the rest of Pennsylvania.

It is no longer the case that cultural change is coming to 
Pennsylvania. It is here already and will only accelerate in the 
years ahead. Pennsylvania politicians may choose to ignore these 
trends, but neither they nor anyone else will stop them.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom