Pubdate: Thu, 08 Nov 2012
Source: Vancouver Sun (CN BC)
Copyright: 2012 The Vancouver Sun
Contact: http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/letters.html
Website: http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/477
Author: Tamsyn Burgmann
Page: A5

THRIVING UNDERGROUND DRUG INDUSTRY AT RISK

The future appears hazy for British Columbia's thriving underground
pot industry, even as two U. S. states have voted to allow citizens to
legally use the drug recreationally.

Business consequences could range from mild to sending marijuana
producers' livelihoods up in smoke, depending on how much of the
estimated $ 6- billion to $ 8- billion annual economy is now being
exported south of the border, analysts say.

Opinion on the impact of the votes in Colorado and Washington state
varies considerably, but those urging Canada to adopt a more evidence-
based policy on marijuana say the latest development means Canada is
falling behind the U. S.

The value of the export pot market cannot be easily quantified because
it's based on smuggling. But experts who believe it's hefty argue the
market for well-known "B. C. bud" will shrink simply because it won't
be in such high demand in places like neighbouring Washington state,
where users will be able to make legal purchases.

"It may not wipe out the entire market but probably ( will) wipe out
most of it," said University of B. C. economics Prof. Werner
Antweiler, who says a substantial amount of B. C.' s marijuana - in
the range of two-thirds - is sold on the U. S. west coast.

If that is the case, he said the impact would be felt most in the B.
C. Interior, where a sizable quantity of the illegal crop is cultivated.

"They will lose production. These communities will suffer certain
amounts of setbacks in terms of the economic welfare, simply because
this money that's being made is percolating in those communities,"
Antweiler said. "If you take $ 8 billion and even take 20 per cent off
or 30 per cent off, it will have a somewhat noticeable impact."

RCMP, however, say the "majority" of marijuana cultivated in both
Canada and the U. S. is produced to support domestic demand, according
to a 2004 border drug threat assessment.
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