Pubdate: Thu, 01 Nov 2012
Source: Seattle Times (WA)
Copyright: 2012 The Associated Press
Contact:  http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/409
Authors: E. Eduardo Castillo and Kristen Wyatt

MEXICO STUDY: LEGALIZING POT COULD CUT INTO CARTEL PROFITS

Washington Ballot Measure

Report Says States Could Grow and Sell Marijuana More Cheaply Than 
International Smugglers

MEXICO CITY  A study released Wednesday by a respected Mexican think 
tank asserts that proposals to legalize the recreational use of 
marijuana in Colorado, Oregon and Washington could cut Mexican drug 
cartels' earnings from traffic to the U.S. by as much as 30 percent.

Opponents questioned some of the study's assumptions, saying the 
proposals could offer new opportunities for cartels to operate inside 
the United States and replace any profit lost to a drop in 
international smuggling.

The ballot measures to be decided Nov. 6 would allow adults to 
possess small amounts of pot under a regimen of state regulation and 
taxation. Polls have shown tight races in Washington and Colorado, 
with Washington's measure appearing to have the best chance of 
passing. Oregon's measure, which would impose the fewest regulations, 
does not appear likely to pass.

The study by the Mexican Competitiveness Institute, "If Our Neighbors 
Legalize," assumes legalization in any state would allow growers 
there to produce marijuana relatively cheaply and create an illicit 
flow to other states, where the drug could be made available at 
cheaper prices and higher quality than Mexican marijuana smuggled 
across the international border.

The report, based on previous studies by U.S. experts including those 
at the RAND Corporation, assumes Mexican cartels earn more than $6 
billion a year from drug smuggling to the United States.

It calculates the hypothetical, post-legalization price of marijuana 
produced in Oregon, Washington and Colorado and sold within those 
states and smuggled to other states. It then assumes that U.S. 
purchasers would choose domestic marijuana if it were sold cheaper 
than the current price of Mexican marijuana.

Opponents of the ballot measures said the study bolsters one of their 
principal objections - that it would turn any state with legal 
marijuana into a producer for the rest of the country.

They said, however, that they did not believe that production would 
rob the cartels of significant profits, saying instead they thought 
Mexican drug lords would try to participate in legal U.S. production. 
The Mexican government has said that drug legalization in some U.S. 
states could make it harder to prosecute growers and dealers in 
Mexico, because they would be producing a product potentially 
destined for a place where it is legal.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom