Pubdate: Wed, 22 Aug 2012
Source: Arkansas Times (Little Rock, AR)
Copyright: 2012 Arkansas Times Inc.
Contact:  http://www.arktimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/583
Author: Jay Barth

THE MEDICAL MARIJUANA SURPRISE

One proposal was lost in the flurry of petition-gathering this summer 
for initiatives ranging from ethics reform to casinos.

Advocates for the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Act - which would make 
Arkansas the 18th state, and the first in the South, to legalize 
personal use of marijuana for the purposes of medical relief - got an 
early start, but have had little visibility over the past few months.

While lacking the big money or the big names attached to other direct 
democracy initiatives this season, the group calling itself Arkansans 
for Compassionate Care was able first to turn in the necessary number 
of signatures to reach an extra 30-day "cure" period, and then 
submitted an additional 74,000 signatures last week. Given that the 
percentage of valid signatures to place the act on the ballot has 
been high from the get-go, it seems likely that medical marijuana 
initiative is on its way to the November ballot.

Just as surprising as the success of Arkansans for Compassionate Care 
in gaining signatures is the apparent openness of Arkansans to vote 
the measure into law in November. While limited polling on the issue 
has been done, a Talk Business-Hendrix College poll last month showed 
a slight plurality of likely voters supporting the measure.

Indeed, aside from the failed ethics initiative that had overwhelming 
public support, the measure is the most popular of all those put 
forward by the legislature or pursued through the petition process this year.

Little money has been spent either in favor or in opposition to the 
measure. While a little national money may pop into the state to 
support the proposal or to oppose it, the major efforts on either 
side of the issue in the fall will be grassroots in nature - both by 
the Arkansans for Compassionate Care in support (perhaps less under 
the radar than to date) and by the Arkansas Family Council, which 
will use its church-based grassroots operation in opposition. While 
it's tempting to presume that the opposition has an advantage in this 
battle based on the Family Council's success in passing the Defense 
of Marriage Amendment in 2004 and Act 1 (the ban on foster care and 
adoption in homes with cohabitating adults) in 2008, the surprising 
success of the pro-medical-marijuana coalition to date should make us 
wary of such conventional wisdom.

Whether the measure is approved or not, turnout created by the issue 
could have ramifications for the partisan races elsewhere on the 
ballot. Specifically, based on what has happened with medical 
marijuana measures and pot decriminalization proposals in other 
states, there is evidence that the issue could draw to the polls 
voters whom Democrats traditionally rely upon but who typically turn 
out at lower levels than other groups.

The data from the Talk Business-Hendrix College poll provides 
additional evidence for this notion.

In a year in which there is deep concern among Democratic partisans 
about turnout of their base because of the president's unpopularity 
in the state, the measure is favored by just over 60 percent of 
Democrats, with a similar percentage of Republicans opposing the measure.

Moreover, the proposal draws the support of over 60 percent of those 
under 30 and 57 percent of African-Americans - two groups whose 
electoral participation is crucial if Democrats are to avoid historic 
losses in the state's legislative and congressional elections.

Consider, for instance, the potential power of the measure to promote 
college student turnout in the hard-fought state Senate election 
between Democratic Rep. Linda Tyler and Republican Sen. Jason Rapert 
in Conway, a race that could well determine control of the state 
Senate in 2013.

In short, the Democratic Party of Arkansas would be well served by 
the Medical Marijuana Act's making the ballot.

High-profile Democrats like Gov. Mike Beebe and Attorney General 
Dustin McDaniel have voiced opposition to the proposal.

But, they would be real winners if advocates of the act gain the 
resources and media attention to more fully publicize the Arkansas 
Medical Marijuana Act as the voters drawn to the polls are quite 
likely to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.

Ernest Dumas is on vacation.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom