Pubdate: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 Source: Austin American-Statesman (TX) Copyright: 2010 Austin American-Statesman Contact: http://www.statesman.com/default/content/feedback/lettersubmit.html Website: http://www.statesman.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/32 Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/topic/Mexico Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/opinion.htm (Opinion) MEXICAN POLITICS AND THE DRUG WAR Texans, take note now: Our approach to border security will have to change after the Mexican presidential elections in 2012. Texas politicians hopped on the border security bandwagon during the recently concluded campaigns. Enforcement approaches are necessary but might be insufficient to stem either the flow of illegal immigrants or drugs. Texas policymakers should be prepared to adopt a variety of approaches to resolve its border problems. Gov. Rick Perry hints that the escalating narco violence might warrant a stronger U.S. military option - perhaps even sending troops into Mexico. Calls for increases in troops might be the popular notion on how to deal with cartel violence, but the Mexicans will have a thing to two to say about that. In fact, the domestic military effort against the cartels is meeting increasing skepticism in Mexico. Last July's state elections set the stage for an inevitable shift from Mexican President Felipe Calderon's policy of dealing with the cartels with the military. Aspirants to succeed Calderon - who is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election - are keenly aware that his aggressive military confrontation with the cartels resulted in more killing that, in turn, led to a steep drop in the president's approval ratings since 2006. Just like immigration, securing the border is a two-way street, and it's a busy street at that. Guns, drugs, immigrants and more than a billion dollars in legitimate commerce flow across the border every day. Keeping the good things coming while stopping the bad is always a challenge for lawmakers in the United States, and doing so successfully requires an awareness of and adaptability to what's happening and what will happen in Mexico. Calderon's conservative National Action Party will face a tough challenge in 2012 both from left and from the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled Mexico from the 1920s until the National Action Party's Vicente Fox was elected president in 2000. The Institutional Revolutionary Party is looking for a comeback, and it would be unwise to bet against it. Enrique Pena Nieto, governor of the central Mexico state, is the current frontrunner for his party's presidential nomination. Pena Nieto outpolled all other contenders by a three-to-one margin in a recent Mitofsky poll. That same poll puts the Institutional Revolutionary Party ahead in the 2012 election by 38 percent. Pena Nieto says he will handle the drug war differently than the National Action Party, emphasizing that using the military to combat cartels "is not something that can be permanent." But the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which retained strong control in many state governments, was ousted in the 2010 elections by left-right coalition parties in several states, including the bellwether state of Oaxaca. This has led to speculation that an alliance between the right-wing National Action Party and the much smaller left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution could be the ticket to keeping the incumbent party in the presidency in 2012. Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard of the Party of the Democratic Revolution is gearing up for a presidential bid, rallying the country's leftists. If elected, a coalition government would raise serious questions, from how a party made up of conflicting ideologies could govern with stability to what the influence of the previously marginalized Party of the Democratic Revolution would mean for the country's approach to the drug war. Increasing the military and police presence on both sides of the border, as Perry called for in the days leading up to his re-election, won't solve the problem of drug-related violence today, and it will be even less of an option when Mexico moves the drug war out of the military arena. In the meantime, Perry should work closely with his Mexican counterparts to make sure that whatever change comes in 2012 is productive. Increased cross-border cooperation and intelligence sharing is a must. As the Mexican military's role in the drug war fades, Texas policymakers will have to adapt by increasing efforts against money laundering here, as well as efforts to curb the flow of guns and cash from Texas to the cartels in Mexico. Various studies have shown that the bulk of the Institutional Revolutionary Party's weapons flow through Texas. Better that the state concentrate on interdicting the weapons and money coming across the border than shaking our collective fist. As long as the cartels are as well armed and as well financed as they are now, threatening gestures won't scare them a bit. - --- MAP posted-by: Richard Lake