Pubdate: Tue, 2 Nov 2010
Source: Huffington Post (US Web)
Copyright: 2010 HuffingtonPost com, Inc.
Website: http://www.huffingtonpost.com
Author: Ryan Grim
Cited: Proposition 19 http://yeson19.com/
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/topic/Proposition+19

PARENTS ARE BIGGEST OBSTACLE TO POT LEGALIZATION: SURVEY

Pot Smokers Hoping That Tuesday's California Election Will Finally 
Bring an End to Marijuana Prohibition Are Running into a Familiar 
Enemy: Parents.

Proposition 19, which had been leading through much of the campaign, 
is now trailing in every survey. Support has declined fastest and 
hardest among those aged 40-49, the age demographic most likely to 
have children old enough to be thinking about -- or already -- smoking pot.

When those parents answered the survey earlier in the election, pot 
legalization was more idea than reality. As an idea, voters between 
40 and 49 supported legalization by a 15-point margin of 53-38 in a 
survey released by the Field Poll, the gold standard for 
public-opinion research in California, in September. At the end of 
October, as the idea came closer to becoming a reality, that 
demographic flipped. A 15-point margin turned into a 13-point 
deficit. Nine percent remained undecided in both surveys. The 
unheard-of 28-point swing among a fifth of the electorate explains 
roughly half of the overall drop in the polls. Support among baby 
boomers aged 50-64 stayed constant in the survey. Among those aged 
18-39, support fell from 59-33 to 54-38 over the course of a month. 
And those 65 and older backed away from the initiative as well, where 
support dropped from 36-29.

People in their 40s are most likely to have children who are 
teenagers. The question then for those parents when they head into 
the voting booth is, who they are thinking about: their kids or themselves?

The Field Poll is conducted by live interviewers, but an automated 
SurveyUSA poll shows a less pronounced decline among those who would 
be likely to have teenagers. Perhaps the shift in support in the 
Field Poll is a random statistical deviation, but frightened parents 
were the major driver of the anti-pot backlash that began in the late 
1970s and paved the way for the ramp-up of the war on drugs.

Automated polls have been starkly different than live surveys in the 
polling around Proposition 19, with live interviewers finding support 
much lower, leading observers to conclude that voters are for some 
reason or other not inclined to express support for legalizing pot 
over the phone.

Organizers are hopeful that high youth turnout will carry Prop 19 
over the objections of their elders. Tom Angell, a spokesman for Yes 
on 19, said that youth turnout is so high at the polling location at 
San Diego State University that the station ran out of provisional 
ballots by the morning.

The Prop 19 campaign provided the following memo, which outlines its 
case for why the measure can still prevail:

To: Interested Parties From: Chris Lehane and Dan Newman Date: 
October 31, 2010 Re: Election Day Report

With Election Day just days away, Proposition 19 is looking history 
in the eye and not blinking.

Proposition 19 is where it is today because of the support, energy 
and commitment this campaign has received from every corner of the 
state. Proposition 19 reflects the mosaic that is California -- 
Democrats, Republicans and Independents; Labor and Business; people 
of all colors and creeds; north and south; east and west; and even 
Dodgers, Angels, Padres and Giants fans.

And like the San Francisco Giants - we are focused on making history.

Many politicians are talking a good game when it comes to change but 
Proposition 19 shows that for real change to happen we the people 
must lead -- and then the politicians will follow.

In the context of Election Day, polls that are all over the map and 
countless stories discussing the impact of Proposition 19, we wanted 
to provide you an update on the campaign's strategy and game plan as 
we close out this election.

Strategically, while 19 is a "Yes" vote, and therefore has the burden 
of proof to make its case, there is a "No" element to the initiative 
- - and that is to pose the question to voters as to whether they 
believe the current prohibition approach has worked.

Provocative "Yes" campaigns have historically won by framing the 
issue with an effective closing argument. On this issue a large 
majority of voters already agree with the final premise, because they 
share the perspective that the current system of prohibition is a failure.

The closing argument is being made by compelling voices including law 
enforcement and moms that are focused on four messages:

1. Prohibition has not worked and reform is needed; 2. 19 will allow 
us to fight the drug cartels by taking away the black market; 3. 19, 
by treating marijuana like alcohol, will make it harder for kids to 
get marijuana; and 4. 19 will generate massive new revenue for the state.

In addition, the campaign benefits from a few key dynamics endemic to 
this subject:

Youth Energy

California is likely to have the largest turnout of voters under 40 
out of all the states, an effect being driven by this initiative. 
Traditional predictions of the mid-term electorate makeup will not 
apply to California this time because of the unprecedented excitement 
surrounding Prop. 19. President Obama benefited from the so-called 
first time Obama Voters in 2008 -- and Prop 19 is going to benefit 
from people turning out to vote because this initiative is on the ballot.

Sophisticated GOTV & Campus Effort

With partner organizations like Courage Campaign, Drug Policy 
Alliance, Students for Sensible Drug Policy, NORML, Just Say Now, 
California Young Democrats, and California College Republicans, etc, 
phone banks are running across the country and calling thousands of 
voters. We are additionally partnering with coordinated field 
efforts, including active teams across 25 major California campuses.

State of the Art Technologies

The campaign's predictive dialer lets us reach 5x more voters than 
traditional phone banking. A series of statewide, telephone town 
halls have allowed us to reach tens of thousands of undecided voters 
in the comfort of their own homes while allowing them to pose 
questions directly to the campaign. At our last town hall, support 
surged 17 points over the course of the call.

Yes on 19 continues to dominate in social networking, e.g. on 
Facebook we have 225,000 followers, more than any other political 
issue or candidate in California.

Great Silent Majority

Pollsters' 'likely voter' models undercount first-time, young and 
occasional voters who are most excited about 19.

Voter Frustration

Voters have increasingly become angrier and angrier at the 
establishment, and this is the most anti-establishment initiative 
nationally this cycle.

Early Voting

20-25% of the vote happened in the first ten days of absentee voting, 
when polls indicated 19 was ahead (and the banked votes presumably 
would reflect those polls).

Paid TV

Our first TV ad aired this week targeting women in the LA market and 
youth, African-Americans and Latinos elsewhere. It has received over 
100K views on YouTube as well as coverage in all major media outlets, 
including MSNBC and Fox News Channel. Internal polls show the ad 
swings votes 8 points in 19's favor. Recent polls were all conducted 
prior to our going up on the air.

Polls Undercount Support

Respondents are less forthright on controversial issues and 19 
performs significantly better in automated surveys than with live 
interviewers. Pollster Nate Silver has documented this 'reverse 
Bradley effect.' Support will be even higher in the privacy of a voting booth.

Historic Precedent

There is documented reality that marijuana reforms always under-poll 
and over-perform. In 2008, a Massachusetts decriminalization 
initiative received 14 more points in the actual ballot box than 
polls indicated just one week earlier.

Together these factors put 19 in a better position to win on Election 
Day than is indicated by the mainstream media narrative.
- ---
MAP posted-by: Richard Lake