Pubdate: Mon, 20 Sep 2010
Source: El Paso Times (TX)
Copyright: 2010 El Paso Times
Contact: http://www.elpasotimes.com/townhall/ci_14227323
Website: http://www.elpasotimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/829

EXPERTS: DRUG VIOLENCE MAY CONTINUE PAST CALDERON'S TERM

The violence that's forced about 230,000 Juarez residents to flee
their homes is likely to continue for several years, experts said.

A recent Mexican government report said 28,000 people were killed in
Mexico since President Felipe Calderon began the crackdown against the
cartels in December 2006. In Juarez, 6,400 people have died in the
brutal spate of violence that has forced thousands to flee the border
community.

According to a study by the Autonomous University of Juarez (UACJ),
about 230,000 people have left Juarez, and 45 percent of them
(124,200) moved to El Paso and the vicinity.

UACJ researchers Wilebaldo Martinez and Maria del Socorro Velazquez
said the results of the study based on a comprehensive survey will be
available in November.

Samuel Logan, analyst for Latin America at iJET Intelligent Risk
Systems in Washington, said the crackdown against the drug cartels and
the violence probably will continue past Calderon's term and through
the next president's administration.

"This is likely to continue," Logan said.

Edgardo Buscaglia, a global organized crime expert, said it took
Colombia about 20 years to clean up its political institutions and get
things under control.

However, he said, Mexico's president does not have the political
support in his country to do what is needed to make a lasting change,
which is to arrest and prosecute high-level politicians and business
owners who protect the drug cartels.

"If these things are not done, then Mexico will continue advancing
toward becoming a failed state," Buscaglia said.

Ricardo Alday, spokesman for the Mexican Embassy in Washington, said,
"The government has repeatedly said that this is not going to be
solved overnight. It will take time and more importantly, a sustained
commitment of everybody involved in rolling back organized crime,
including the United States."

The former United Nations anti-drug crime expert said drug-trafficking
organizations must be viewed in light of globalized organized crime,
because they are involved in numerous other crimes as well, including
human and arms trafficking, kidnappings, extortions and piracy of
intellectual property.

U.S. State Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton in a recent speech told
the Council on Foreign Relations that political will and strengthening
institutional capacity are needed to defeat Mexico's drug cartels.

Last year, the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
published a study by Hal Brands, "Mexico's Narco-Insurgency and U.S.
Counterdrug Policy," that states "Narcotics-driven corruption is
rampant, government control of large swaths of the country is tenuous
at best, and predictions that Mexico is on the way to becoming a
failed state are frequent."
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