Pubdate: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 Source: El Paso Times (TX) Copyright: 2010 El Paso Times Contact: http://www.elpasotimes.com/townhall/ci_14227323 Website: http://www.elpasotimes.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/829 EXPERTS: DRUG VIOLENCE MAY CONTINUE PAST CALDERON'S TERM The violence that's forced about 230,000 Juarez residents to flee their homes is likely to continue for several years, experts said. A recent Mexican government report said 28,000 people were killed in Mexico since President Felipe Calderon began the crackdown against the cartels in December 2006. In Juarez, 6,400 people have died in the brutal spate of violence that has forced thousands to flee the border community. According to a study by the Autonomous University of Juarez (UACJ), about 230,000 people have left Juarez, and 45 percent of them (124,200) moved to El Paso and the vicinity. UACJ researchers Wilebaldo Martinez and Maria del Socorro Velazquez said the results of the study based on a comprehensive survey will be available in November. Samuel Logan, analyst for Latin America at iJET Intelligent Risk Systems in Washington, said the crackdown against the drug cartels and the violence probably will continue past Calderon's term and through the next president's administration. "This is likely to continue," Logan said. Edgardo Buscaglia, a global organized crime expert, said it took Colombia about 20 years to clean up its political institutions and get things under control. However, he said, Mexico's president does not have the political support in his country to do what is needed to make a lasting change, which is to arrest and prosecute high-level politicians and business owners who protect the drug cartels. "If these things are not done, then Mexico will continue advancing toward becoming a failed state," Buscaglia said. Ricardo Alday, spokesman for the Mexican Embassy in Washington, said, "The government has repeatedly said that this is not going to be solved overnight. It will take time and more importantly, a sustained commitment of everybody involved in rolling back organized crime, including the United States." The former United Nations anti-drug crime expert said drug-trafficking organizations must be viewed in light of globalized organized crime, because they are involved in numerous other crimes as well, including human and arms trafficking, kidnappings, extortions and piracy of intellectual property. U.S. State Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton in a recent speech told the Council on Foreign Relations that political will and strengthening institutional capacity are needed to defeat Mexico's drug cartels. Last year, the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute published a study by Hal Brands, "Mexico's Narco-Insurgency and U.S. Counterdrug Policy," that states "Narcotics-driven corruption is rampant, government control of large swaths of the country is tenuous at best, and predictions that Mexico is on the way to becoming a failed state are frequent." - --- MAP posted-by: Matt