Pubdate: Sat, 12 Sep 2009
Source: Wall Street Journal (US)
Copyright: 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Contact:  http://www.wsj.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/487
Author: Bill Whalen
Note: Mr. Whalen is a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover 
Institution.

CRIME MAKES A COMEBACK IN CALIFORNIA POLITICS

Early Parole and Prisoner Releases Could Put an Old Issue Back on the Agenda.

There are so many politicians running for office in California with 
Silicon Valley roots that a Sacramento Bee reporter says next year 
could be the valley's political "coming out party." Former 
Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is running for U.S. Senate. Former 
eBay CEO Meg Whitman is running for governor, as are former high-tech 
entrepreneur and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Tom 
Campbell, a former congressman from the valley.

But amid the hubbub about the "new economy" coming to dominate Golden 
State politics, an old-fashioned issue is creeping back to the 
surface that none of these Republicans can afford to ignore: crime.

Consider what happened in 1994. Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, vying 
for re-election, was down 23 points in March. Then Melvin Carter, who 
had been convicted of a dozen rapes in 1982 and sentenced to 25 years 
in prison, was suddenly released thanks to time-off for good 
behavior. Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown said Carter's release 
was evidence Mr. Wilson was soft on crime.

The Republican counterpunch was devastating: The "good-time credits" 
law that let Carter out had been signed by Ms. Brown's brother, Jerry 
Brown, when he was governor. And it was her father, Pat Brown, who as 
governor appointed the judge who refused to correct a sentencing 
error that would have doubled Carter's punishment. Ms. Brown never 
recovered. She lost by 15 points.

Nearly 16 years later, the characters have changed, yet three 
constants remain regarding the politics of crime.

First, horrific crimes continually strike home in middle-class 
neighborhoods. Right now in Southern California the ongoing Station 
Fire has consumed more than 100,000 acres, killed at least two 
people-and appears to be the work of arson. The investigation could 
turn into a death-penalty case. In Northern California, there is the 
recent arrest of Phillip Craig Garrido for allegedly abducting, 
raping and imprisoning Jaycee Dugard for some 18 years.

The second constant: For all their progressive quirks, California 
voters reliably tilt to the right on crime, last year's election 
being no exception. Barack Obama easily carried California, with 61% 
of the vote. Yet 60% of Californians rejected Proposition 5, a George 
Soros-financed initiative that would have shortened sentences for 
drug felons. In November 2006, 70% of Californians voted for 
Proposition 83, the state's "Jessica's Law" establishing stiffer 
sentences and GPS tracking of registered sex offenders.

The third constant: In a "wrong track" election year, a sour 
electorate has little stomach for candidates who don't share their 
values. That was the lesson of the Wilson-Brown contest in 1994, when 
opinion swung nearly 40% against the liberal Democrat seen as "soft" 
on crime and illegal immigration.

Could history repeat itself in 2010? One opening comes courtesy of 
the state's fiscal mess. As part of this summer's budget deal, the 
legislature must cut $1.2 billion from the corrections budget to help 
close California's $26.3 billion deficit. Democratic lawmakers have 
suggested releasing up to 37,000 inmates to help ease prison-operation costs.

Republican State Sen. Tom Harman, a candidate for state Attorney 
General in 2010, is offering a conservative alternative: Rein in the 
runaway cost of prisoner health care. Over the past eight years, the 
cost of inmate care has more than quadrupled to $2.9 billion 
annually, or about $14,000 per prisoner. It's so expensive because 
the system is rife with waste and offers generous benefits (including 
heart transplants at top hospitals).

It's an interesting message for Republicans to road test, especially 
in Latino communities. Then again, the fear of alienating Latinos may 
discourage more moderate GOP candidates from bringing up the issue of 
the approximately 30,000 illegal aliens currently residing in 
California prisons. Some California Republicans now avoid the issue, 
lest they be branded as anti-immigrant. But other party stalwarts 
point out that incarcerated illegal aliens cost California taxpayers 
nearly $1 billion annually, with the Golden State paying 90 cents for 
every dime that comes from Washington. Will Ms. Fiorina have the 
courage to make federal reimbursement an issue against Sen. Barbara 
Boxer, who has done little on the matter during her three terms in the Senate?

Another flash point is the possibility of an appointed commission to 
rewrite California's sentencing guidelines. The idea was included 
earlier this year in the assembly bill to cut prison spending, but it 
was dropped due to queasiness within the Democratic caucus.

But if last fall's vote against Proposition 5 is any indication, that 
shouldn't stop Republicans from reminding voters that Mr. Garrido is 
the by-product of a reduced sentence. He had served time in federal 
prison for drug offenses and in Nevada for sexual assault, and he was 
out on parole when he was arrested.

California Republicans may also get lucky. Four years after Kathleen 
Brown's self-inflicted wound, Democrat Gray Davis cruised to victory 
in 1998 by showcasing his support of the death penalty. Mr. Davis 
went so far as to promise Californians that he would be "death on 
violent crime."

The current Democratic contenders aren't as dexterous. Jerry Brown 
touts a tough-on-crime record-as California's attorney general, and 
prior to that as mayor of Oakland. But it doesn't square with his 
record as a governor in the 1970s, most notably his opposition to the 
state's death penalty.

The other Democrat hopeful, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, may be 
haunted by Danielle Bologna. She's a San Francisco widow whose 
husband and two sons were murdered last year by an illegal immigrant. 
That immigrant might have been deported after his conviction for two 
gang-related felonies before the murders. But under San Francisco's 
1989 "safe harbor" law, officials were barred from alerting federal 
authorities of his immigration status.

Not all California Republicans will be comfortable with elevating 
crime as a campaign issue, especially after seven years of Mr. 
Schwarzenegger avoiding conservative wedge issues in favor of 
left-of-center ideas. And so far all four candidates are avoiding the 
issue. But it will likely take more than biography to win a 
high-profile state-wide election-and 2010 is likely to be a contest 
of ideas as well as values.

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MAP posted-by: Richard R Smith Jr