Pubdate: Mon, 12 Mar 2007 Source: Wall Street Journal (US) Copyright: 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Contact: http://www.wsj.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/487 Author: Mary Anastasia O'Grady Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/pot.htm (Cannabis) Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/coke.htm (Cocaine) Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/meth.htm (Methamphetamine) The Americas LOS UNTOUCHABLES MEXICO CITY -- If political will and courage were enough to win the war on drugs, Mexico would be well on the way to victory. That's the conclusion I draw after an hour with Attorney General Eduardo Medina-Mora at his high-rise office on Avenida Reforma here in the capital last week. Since taking office on Dec. 1, President Felipe Calderon has made the defeat of the drug-trafficking cartels and the return of public security his No. 1 priority. To head the fight he called on Mr. Medina-Mora, the country's former chief of public security. In less than 100 days, using the army, the new attorney general has stunned Mexico by unleashing an all-out blitz against the narcotics business. There are no doubts here about this man's determination to prevail. After my meeting at the Justice Department I remain highly skeptical about whether the war on drugs is winnable in the face of inelastic demand for illegal substances. I am also very worried about the high costs that fighting supply is imposing on the country. Yet like their counterparts in Colombia, Mexican officials may have little choice but to go after the organized crime networks that have blossomed under drug prohibition. In Mr. Medina-Mora's view, to ignore the problem would be to cede large areas of the country to the rule of the underworld and to abandon the state's obligation to protect the public. [Eduardo Medina-Mora] American demand for narcotics has produced supply from Mexico for generations. During World War II, Washington asked its southern neighbor to cultivate poppies to meet the need for morphine on the battlefields in the European and the Asia-Pacific theaters. The climate in the Mexican states of Sinoloa, Durango, Chihuahua and Guerrero proved most hospitable and the business remains today. The country also has been a traditional source of marijuana for many decades. Even so, organized crime was held at bay until the 1990s, when the U.S. cracked down heavily on the cocaine routes from the Andes through Florida. Once interdiction in the Caribbean pushed up sharply the cost of shipping product via sea and air, traffickers began seeking the path of least resistance overland through Central America and Mexico. The enormous profits captured from selling this prohibited and therefore high-priced powder strengthened criminal gangs that had previously made do mostly on income from contraband alcohol, illegal gaming and smuggled merchandise. This coincided with the demise of Mexico's one-party system, which for 70 years had tightly controlled law and order. By the late 1990s the cartels easily dominated Mexico's weak law enforcement bureaucracy. The old Mexican saw, "plomo o plata" -- lead or silver -- describes the choice that local police and judges faced when confronted by the drug cartels. Many gave in not only to save their own lives but the lives of their families. Empowered by robust cash flow, gangs diversified their businesses to include lucrative kidnapping rackets. Under the presidency of Vicente Fox from 2000 to 2006, law enforcement responded by going hard against the country's most well-known drug kingpins. But decapitating the leadership produced a power struggle among underlings and caused a further spike in violence. Mr. Medina-Mora says there were some 1,000 drug-trafficking related deaths last year. And killings were not limited to the capital, which has had high crime for more than a decade. Many places formerly known for their quaint Mexican charm -- Acapulco, Michoacan, Monterrey, Nuevo Laredo -- became battlegrounds in the war. Despite the bloodshed, little progress was made. The businesses flourished as did the organized criminal networks. Now Mr. Medina-Mora is raising the stakes again. "You have to overwhelm them and you have to stay long enough to reclaim the space for the citizens," he told me. There are now 27,000 troops and federal police dispatched to six states with the goal of restoring order. The attorney general has also caused a sensation in Mexico by accelerating the extradition of drug suspects to the U.S. In the first seven weeks of this year, Mr. Medina-Mora has already sent 39 of them across the border to face U.S. courts, compared with a total of 53 extraditions in 2005 and 63 last year. Not surprisingly, the capos are battling back and struggling against each other for turf. There have been at least 250 drug-cartel related deaths so far this year. Last week the governor of Tabasco appealed to the federal government to send help to fight organized crime in his state. The problem is also spilling over into the U.S. Last week Reuters quoted the county sheriff in Laredo, Texas saying, "The attacks against us are becoming more brazen. Drug cartels have instructed their people to go down fighting, to do whatever is necessary to get the narcotics through." Violence is not the only consequence of the effort to quash supply. According to Mexican officials, the market has responded to eradication of coca and marijuana crops by coming up with new varieties that yield 10 times the potency that was produced a decade ago. The prohibition also has caused a change in the demand for cocaine. Because "mules" transporting the drugs are paid in kind, they have to push locally in order to get their cash. Latin America (along with Europe) is now the growth market for cocaine sales and Brazil has become the world's second-largest cocaine market. This means that addiction is growing in countries that have few resources to treat it. Meanwhile methamphetamines have become the more fashionable high in the U.S. The U.S. has its own "meth" labs so an end to supply from Mexico doesn't suggest an end to supply. Nevertheless, U.S. demand -- combined with weapons smuggled in from the north -- is a big part of Mexico's crime problem. Mr. Medina-Mora says that since these new synthetic drugs depend on chemical ingredients coming from China, India and Germany, his strategy will be to keep a close eye on shipments from these countries. His office also wants Washington to do more to stop bulk shipments of cash (money laundering) and the smuggling of high-powered rifles, ammunition and grenades coming from the U.S. One thing seems sure: Under the guidance of this attorney general, we are going to find out if force can overpower the market demand for drugs. It doesn't seem fair that Mexico should have to live this experiment, but having handed the drug business to criminals through prohibition, it doesn't have much choice. - --- MAP posted-by: Beth Wehrman