Pubdate: Mon, 18 Jun 2007
Source: Globe and Mail (Canada)
Copyright: 2007, The Globe and Mail Company
Contact:  http://www.globeandmail.ca/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/168
Author: Alan Freeman, with a report from Jeff Esau

THE PERILS OF TRYING TO UPROOT AN OPIUM ECONOMY

Report Warned Federal Government That Poppy Eradication Could Lead To
Instability, And Leave The International Security Assistance Force At
Risk

OTTAWA - Top government officials were warned last fall that
Western-led efforts to wipe out Afghanistan's opium trade risked
undermining the country's shaky economy, increasing instability and
endangering Canadian and other NATO troops in the country.

The report, prepared by the International Assessment Staff of the
Privy Council Office, points out that the huge increase in Afghan
poppy production is damaging efforts to create a healthy, stable
economy. Yet Afghans have become so financially dependent on the drug
trade that simply eradicating poppy plants could risk making things
worse.

"Any aggressive clampdown on the opium trade would provoke economic
dislocation and hardship for large numbers of Afghan citizens," said the
report, entitled Afghanistan: Curse of the Opium Economy.

"Such an outcome would pose added threats to security and political
stability in Afghanistan, and could add to the vulnerability of ISAF
(International Security Assistance Force) forces."

The report, dated Nov. 22, was provided to The Globe and Mail by
Access to Information expert and writer Jeff Esau, who obtained the
documents from the PCO under an access request.

The report, which the assessment staff said was based on a "a wide
variety of open, diplomatic and intelligence sources from Canada and
allied countries," paints a gloomy picture of efforts to eradicate
poppy production.

Other documents also paint a discouraging portrait of efforts to
rebuild the Afghan national army and to reduce the country's endemic
corruption. The author of the main report was not identified.

Opium is the raw material used in the production of heroin.

Afghanistan's poppy production has jumped dramatically over the past
25 years, rising 30-fold to an estimated 6,100 metric tonnes in 2006
from just 200 metric tonnes in 1980, with the biggest jump in the
volatile south.

Because of the country's prolonged civil war, policing efforts have
lagged and farmers have greatly expanded output, so much so that some
estimates say the opium economy accounts for as much as 60 per cent of
Afghanistan's gross domestic product.

"Poppy cultivation has remained the most lucrative options for the
many Afghan farmers who struggle with limited finances, infrastructure
deficiencies and harsh growing conditions," the document said. And it
notes that growing opium poppies generates much higher profits than
cereals and other traditional crops.

Poppy growing pays so well that it diverts land and workers from food
production and threatens to "crowd out growth in the country's legal
economy." The report, parts of which were censored, concludes that
Afghan authorities face "a difficult balancing act" as they seek to
wean the economy from the opium trade while making sure that Afghans
have a viable and legal alternative.

The report was circulated widely among top levels of the government
with recipients including Ward Elcock, deputy minister of National
Defence; Peter Harder, who was then deputy minister of Foreign
Affairs; and David Mulroney, who was then Prime Minister Stephen
Harper's foreign and defence policy adviser.

Another PCO report on the same subject, which summarizes discussions
at an event called the "South Asia Conference 2006," is even more
pessimistic about the Afghan situation, noting that the government is
centred in Kabul with "limited influence in the provinces."

"Counter-narcotic eradication programs are making things worse because
the other elements of the counter-narcotics strategy are not being
implemented," says the heavily-redacted document, which is dated Nov.
24.

It notes that the Afghan national security forces "are not yet able to
relieve ISAF troops or operate on their own - even in small numbers."
UN officials recently reported that Afghanistan had stepped up its
eradication efforts, destroying 25,000 hectares of opium poppy fields
this year.

While eradication efforts were proceeding in the more secure areas of
northern and central Afghanistan, production continues to soar in the
south.

"The south is going wild, it's basically out of control," Andrea
Mancini, project co-ordinator for Central Asia at the UN Office on
Drugs and Crime, said in an interview published last month.
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