Pubdate: Mon, 18 Jun 2007 Source: Globe and Mail (Canada) Copyright: 2007, The Globe and Mail Company Contact: http://www.globeandmail.ca/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/168 Author: Alan Freeman, with a report from Jeff Esau THE PERILS OF TRYING TO UPROOT AN OPIUM ECONOMY Report Warned Federal Government That Poppy Eradication Could Lead To Instability, And Leave The International Security Assistance Force At Risk OTTAWA - Top government officials were warned last fall that Western-led efforts to wipe out Afghanistan's opium trade risked undermining the country's shaky economy, increasing instability and endangering Canadian and other NATO troops in the country. The report, prepared by the International Assessment Staff of the Privy Council Office, points out that the huge increase in Afghan poppy production is damaging efforts to create a healthy, stable economy. Yet Afghans have become so financially dependent on the drug trade that simply eradicating poppy plants could risk making things worse. "Any aggressive clampdown on the opium trade would provoke economic dislocation and hardship for large numbers of Afghan citizens," said the report, entitled Afghanistan: Curse of the Opium Economy. "Such an outcome would pose added threats to security and political stability in Afghanistan, and could add to the vulnerability of ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) forces." The report, dated Nov. 22, was provided to The Globe and Mail by Access to Information expert and writer Jeff Esau, who obtained the documents from the PCO under an access request. The report, which the assessment staff said was based on a "a wide variety of open, diplomatic and intelligence sources from Canada and allied countries," paints a gloomy picture of efforts to eradicate poppy production. Other documents also paint a discouraging portrait of efforts to rebuild the Afghan national army and to reduce the country's endemic corruption. The author of the main report was not identified. Opium is the raw material used in the production of heroin. Afghanistan's poppy production has jumped dramatically over the past 25 years, rising 30-fold to an estimated 6,100 metric tonnes in 2006 from just 200 metric tonnes in 1980, with the biggest jump in the volatile south. Because of the country's prolonged civil war, policing efforts have lagged and farmers have greatly expanded output, so much so that some estimates say the opium economy accounts for as much as 60 per cent of Afghanistan's gross domestic product. "Poppy cultivation has remained the most lucrative options for the many Afghan farmers who struggle with limited finances, infrastructure deficiencies and harsh growing conditions," the document said. And it notes that growing opium poppies generates much higher profits than cereals and other traditional crops. Poppy growing pays so well that it diverts land and workers from food production and threatens to "crowd out growth in the country's legal economy." The report, parts of which were censored, concludes that Afghan authorities face "a difficult balancing act" as they seek to wean the economy from the opium trade while making sure that Afghans have a viable and legal alternative. The report was circulated widely among top levels of the government with recipients including Ward Elcock, deputy minister of National Defence; Peter Harder, who was then deputy minister of Foreign Affairs; and David Mulroney, who was then Prime Minister Stephen Harper's foreign and defence policy adviser. Another PCO report on the same subject, which summarizes discussions at an event called the "South Asia Conference 2006," is even more pessimistic about the Afghan situation, noting that the government is centred in Kabul with "limited influence in the provinces." "Counter-narcotic eradication programs are making things worse because the other elements of the counter-narcotics strategy are not being implemented," says the heavily-redacted document, which is dated Nov. 24. It notes that the Afghan national security forces "are not yet able to relieve ISAF troops or operate on their own - even in small numbers." UN officials recently reported that Afghanistan had stepped up its eradication efforts, destroying 25,000 hectares of opium poppy fields this year. While eradication efforts were proceeding in the more secure areas of northern and central Afghanistan, production continues to soar in the south. "The south is going wild, it's basically out of control," Andrea Mancini, project co-ordinator for Central Asia at the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said in an interview published last month. - --- MAP posted-by: Derek