Pubdate: Sun, 15 Oct 2006
Source: Winnipeg Free Press (CN MB)
Copyright: 2006 Winnipeg Free Press
Contact:  http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/502
Author: Bartley Kives and Mary Agnes Welch

Perspective: TALKING TOUGH

Candidates Are Making It a Top Election Issue, Even Though There Is 
Little Data to Suggest Crime -- or Our Fear of It -- Is Actually Rising

JENNIFER Smith woke up one morning this summer to find her family's 
Astro van had vanished from her Silver Heights driveway. As annoying 
- -- and unnerving -- as it was, even she says her tale is so 
run-of-the-mill it's become a Winnipeg stereotype.

"It seems to be getting worse," said Smith, a young stay-at-home 
mother. "Everyone I know has had their car, their garage broken into 
lately. It's like a constant. A lot of people don't report it because 
it's not worth the hassle, but it is happening."

The fears and frustrations of Winnipeggers like Smith have led Mayor 
Sam Katz and the vast majority of city council candidates to place 
crime reduction and prevention among their top campaign priorities 
during this civic election.

Suburban candidates especially are demanding their fair share of 
police officers to tackle what they declare to be an epidemic of 
costly property crimes -- vandalism, car thefts, break-ins, graffiti.

Inner-city candidates highlight nastier violent offences like gang 
activity, crack houses and assaults.

"I was on Inkster and I ended up talking to three neighbours for 
about 45 minutes and it was all about crime," said Tim Bednarski, who 
is running for a second time in Point Douglas. "They were afraid to 
come out of their homes because of these gangsters. I wouldn't have 
thought it would be that bad up there, but it's a sad state."

The way the candidates have been talking for the last two months, 
Winnipeg has become a dangerous city where law-abiding citizens fear 
to walk the streets.

In reality, the city is no more dangerous today than it was six years ago.

While crime is certainly a problem -- Winnipeg is No. 1 among 
Canadian cities for per-capita car theft and No. 2 for per-capita 
homicide -- police statistics suggest the overall incidence of crime 
has not risen since 2000.

According to the Winnipeg Police Service, the number of assaults 
reported in Winnipeg declined to 6,088 in 2005 from 6,676 in 2000, 
while reported break-and-enters declined to 7,202 from 7,951 over the 
same period.

The number of robberies reported in Winnipeg increased to 1,836 in 
2005 from 1,694 in 2000, but fluctuated by hundreds from year to 
year, denying analysts the opportunity to divine a trend from the data.

Sexual assault cases, meanwhile, increased to 672 from 566, but 
researchers don't hold much stock in the reported incidence of rape, 
a crime that goes consistently under-reported, given the fact it's 
usually committed by close acquaintances.

Homicides also increased to 25 from 16, but changes from year to year 
appear to be random. Statistically, the overall incidence of the most 
severe of all crimes is too low in comparison to Winnipeg's 
population for annual changes to be considered significant.

According to Winnipeg Police Service data, only car theft clearly 
skyrocketed between 2000 and 2005, climbing to 11,840 from 9,464.

Based on this data, Statistics Canada has stated one in every 58 
Winnipeggers was a victim of car theft in 2005 -- and that's every 
single Winnipegger, not just Winnipeg drivers.

"In Winnipeg, the prospect of car theft is very real and people 
should be very concerned with ways to reduce it," said criminologist 
Rick Linden, a University of Manitoba sociology professor. "But the 
overall (crime) numbers are not increasing -- not nationally, not locally."

Linden also believes that the fear of crime -- the campaign 
bread-and-butter for civic election candidates -- may be nothing more 
than a political bugaboo. Long-term studies conducted by researchers 
in his department suggest the fear of crime has actually been 
decreasing in Winnipeg since the mid-1980s.

According to surveys of Winnipeg adults conducted in 1984, 1994 and 
2004, the fear of being a victim of four specific crimes -- assault, 
break and enter, sexual assault and theft -- has receded slightly 
over the past two decades, thanks to new analysis by recent masters 
graduate Kristin Clarke (please see sidebar).

The same longitudinal research suggests the fear of fraud has 
increased, which makes sense considering increased opportunities for 
computer-assisted credit-card and identity theft in the Internet era.

In other words, there is little hard data to suggest either incidence 
of crime or the fear of crime is actually rising in Winnipeg. We have 
every right to be concerned about crime -- especially car theft and 
homicide -- but our concerns are really no different today than they 
were decades ago, Linden said.

"I've been teaching criminology for more than 30 years, and I don't 
remember a time when people put their feet up and said, 'Well, we 
have the problem licked,' " he said.

"If you go back 10 years, you'll see similar stories about crime and 
similar fears of crime... the only difference is that we're now 
living in what some criminologists call a 'risk-averse society.' 
"People drive their kids to school because they're afraid of what 
might happen on the streets, even though the streets are no less safe 
than they were years ago."

Mayor Sam Katz, who increased the number of police on Winnipeg's 
streets and introduced a street-crime task force during his short 
first term in office, rejects the notion that crime has flatlined.

In an interview last week, he called that as a "totally inaccurate" 
idea that could only be espoused by someone who doesn't actually 
speak to Winnipeggers.

"You know what? Go talk to someone who lives around Central Park and 
ask them if crime is a major issue. Go talk to someone in the North 
End and see what they say. Go talk to someone in the Broadway area or 
the inner city and ask them if crime is an issue. Crime is a major 
issue," said Katz.

But the mayor conceded public fears may be on the rise as the result 
of an increased awareness of crime, thanks to the near-instantaneous 
quality of modern electronic media. Katz, like many civic election 
candidates, wants to put even more police on the streets to allay those fears.

Criminologist Linden, however, said putting more police officers in 
uniform does not actually prevent crime. It's a popular yet cosmetic 
political pledge, he suggests.

And Winnipeg already has its fair share of officers.

According to a Statistics Canada report released late last year, 
Winnipeg has more officers per capita than almost every other major 
city, including Toronto.

There is no way the city could ever afford to hire enough police to 
keep the streets free of people determined to commit crimes, said 
Linden, adding effective crime-prevention policies tend to be more 
complex. Winnipeggers should ask their candidates what policies they 
propose to prevent crimes from occurring, said Linden, who sits on 
the city's car-theft prevention task force. He said he has yet to 
hear a single good crime-prevention suggestion during the current 
civic election.

There is, however, some focus on the root causes of crime in this 
election, which Katz and others agree are poverty and a lack of both 
educational and economic opportunities.

Addressing the economic disparities that divide the comfortable and 
poor in Winnipeg is likely beyond the ability of any single 
politician and will require long-term solutions, Katz said.

In the meantime, here are a few of the solutions politicians are 
touting on the streets this election campaign:

HOW TO COMBAT CRIME

Solutions From Council and Mayoral Candidates

* River Heights candidate Brenda Leipsic says police officers are 
bogged down in paperwork and hampered by old computers and equipment. 
She wants to make sure police officers are freed up to be deployed 
quickly to all parts of the city so residents don't have to wait 
hours or days for an officer to respond to non-emergency calls. She's 
also concerned that it's difficult to recruit enough officers.

* Grant Nordman, the business candidate in St. Charles, wants to 
explore one-officer cruiser cars instead of two, which the police 
union favours for safety reasons. He also says the city should hire 
more officers and make sure the suburbs have sufficient coverage.

* Daniel McIntyre candidate Don Salter seeks more community policing, 
with officers out of their cars walking the streets of the West End. 
He also wants to tackle the root causes of crime by investing in 
housing and job-creation programs.

* Daniel McIntyre candidate Trudy Turner, the former head of the 
area's BIZ agency, wants to increase community policing, continue 
Operating Clean Sweep to combat organized street crime in the West 
End, and support volunteer community patrols.

* St. James-Brooklands candidate Scott Fielding, whose family has 
been victimized by crimes three times over the past 12 months, wants 
to lobby the federal government for tax breaks on theft-prevention 
devices such as home alarm systems and automobile immobilizers.

* Incumbent mayor Sam Katz has pledged to continue with efforts to 
use computer-analyzed statistics to better deploy police on the ground.

* The Winnipeg Green Party, which is fielding six candidates for 
council, wants to create a commission to work with emergency services 
to improve response times.

* Donald Benham, incumbent councillor for River Heights, wants to 
improve police response times and collaborate with residents on 
prevention programs. He also wants to improve street lighting and 
create a system to allow residents to stay abreast of crime news in 
the neighbourhood.

* Charleswood candidate Livio Ciaralli says it's important to reach 
kids before they become criminals and a good way to do that is to 
have more resource officers in schools who get to know youth before 
they commit crimes. Ciaralli believes all police should have Taser 
guns and the city should lobby for a tougher penalties for criminals.

* Greg Littlejohn, candidate in the North End ward of Mynarski, wants 
to see more manpower in the police department, and smarter 
deployment. He also wants to explore ways to free up police officers 
from routine paperwork, perhaps by asking Autopac staff to take 
routine vandalism or car-theft reports instead of constables. He'd 
also like to see volunteer foot patrols expanded throughout the North 
End. And he'd like to bolster programs in community clubs to keep 
kids out of trouble.

* Tim Bednarski, candidate for council in Point Douglas, wants to 
expand Operation Clean Sweep to the North End. He says the 
crime-fighting task force now concentrated in the West End needs to 
rove throughout the core to keep criminals guessing. And he would 
like to see schools become the base for community police officers, 
where most major schools in the North End have their own officer who 
gets to know the students and the neighbourhood.
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MAP posted-by: Elaine