Pubdate: Mon, 18 Sep 2006
Source: Packet & Times (CN ON)
Copyright: 2006, Osprey Media Group Inc.
Contact:  http://www.orilliapacket.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/2397
Author: Gwynne Dyer

AFGHANISTAN: FARMERS, TALIBAN LINK MUST BE BROKEN

Most people in Afghanistan are farmers. If Hamid Karzai's 
Western-backed government in Kabul is to survive, it must have their 
support. So, not destroying their main cash crop should be an obvious 
priority for Karzai's foreign supporters. But, what the hell, let's 
go burn some poppies.

"We need to realize that we could actually fail here," said Lt.-Gen. 
David Richards, British commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan. In 
southwestern Afghanistan, where 7,000 British, Canadian and Dutch 
troops were committed during the summer to contain a resurgent 
Taliban, the guerrillas now actually stand and fight, even against 
NATO's overwhelming firepower and air power, and everything that 
moves on the roads gets ambushed.

The combat in Afghanistan is more severe and sustained than anything 
seen in Iraq, for the Taliban fight in organized units with good 
light infantry weapons. In the past month, Britain and Canada have 
lost about half as many soldiers killed in Afghanistan as the U.S. 
lost in Iraq in the same time, out of a combat force perhaps one-tenth as big.

Concern in Europe about Western casualties in Afghanistan is already 
so great that none of the NATO countries was willing to commit more 
troops to the fighting when their defence chiefs met in Belgium on 
Sept. 13, despite an urgent appeal from Richards for 2,500 more 
combat troops. Most of them just don't believe that a few thousand 
more troops will save the situation in Afghanistan.

The rapid collapse of the Taliban government in the face of America's 
air power and its locally purchased allies in late 2001 created a 
wholly misleading impression that the question of who controls the 
country had been settled. Afghanistan has always been an easy country 
to invade, but a hard country to occupy. Resistance to foreign 
intervention takes time to build up, but the Afghans defeated British 
occupations (twice) and a Soviet occupation when those empires were 
at the height of their power, and they are well on the way to doing it again.

The various warlords who allied themselves with the U.S. are the real 
power in most of Afghanistan, and in the traditional opium-producing 
areas in the south they have encouraged a return to poppy-farming 
(which had been almost eradicated under the Taliban) in order to get 
some cash flow. Poor farmers struggling under staggering loads of 
debt were happy to co-operate, and by now Afghanistan is producing 
about 90 per cent of the world's opium, the raw material for heroin.

That's the price you pay for disrupting the established order, and 
the U.S. should just have paid it. There's no real point in 
destroying poppies in Afghanistan, because they'll just get planted 
elsewhere - so long as heroin is illegal, the price will be high 
enough that people somewhere will grow it. Even if it is 
ideologically impossible for the U.S. to end its foolish, unwinnable 
'war on drugs,' it should have turned a blind eye in Afghanistan.

But it didn't. For the past five years a shadowy outfit called 
DynCorps has been destroying the poppy-fields of southern 
Afghanistan's poorest farmers with U.S. and British military support. 
This was an opportunity the Taliban could not resist, and the 
alliance between Taliban fighters and poppy farmers (now often the 
same people) is at the root of the resurgent guerilla war in the south.

It begins to smell like the last year or two in a classic 
anti-colonial war, when the guerrillas start winning and local 
players begin to hedge their bets. After taking heavy casualties, 
Pakistan has agreed with the tribes of Waziristan to withdraw its 
troops from the lawless province, giving the Taliban a secure base on 
Afghanistan's border. Karzai, seeking allies who will help him 
survive the eventual pullout of western troops, is appointing 
gangsters and drug runners as local police chiefs and commanders. The 
end-game has started, and the foreigners seem bound to lose.

Only one chance remains for them. The futile war on drugs will drag 
on endlessly elsewhere, but if they legalized the cultivation of 
opium poppies in Afghanistan - and bought up the entire crop at 
premium prices - they might just break the link between the Taliban 
and the farmers.

Store it, burn it, whatever, but stop destroying the farmers' 
livelihoods and put a few billion dollars directly into their 
pockets. Otherwise, the first Afghan cities will probably start to 
fall into Taliban hands within the next year to 18 months.
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MAP posted-by: Elaine