Pubdate: Sat, 19 Nov 2005
Source: Financial Times (UK)
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited 2005
Contact:  http://www.ft.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/154
Author: Hal Weitzman
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/coke.htm (Cocaine)

MORALES' PROMISES COULD HOLD SEEDS OF HIS OWN DOWNFALL

Evo Morales is welcomed to Morochata like an ancient conquering hero.

Leaders from the small potato-farming community, some 50km north-west 
of Cochabamba in the Bolivian highlands, anoint him with mounds of 
confetti that cling to his thatch of black hair. Villagers hang 
garlands of flowers, potatoes, beans and coca leaves around his neck. 
Crowds throng his route through the town, cheering, setting off 
home-made fireworks and jostling to be near him.

Thousands have gathered in the main square to listen to a speech by 
the man who in 10 years has brought his radical Movement to Socialism 
(MAS) to the brink of power. "In the 1940s, your grandfathers here 
kicked out the landowners," Mr Morales tells them. "Today, the new 
landowners are transnational companies that control our gas, oil and 
forests. We will govern as owners of our land, and nationalise our 
natural resources." The crowd responds with wild applause.

The campaign pledges may come to haunt Mr Morales if, as most polls 
suggest, he wins the presidential race on December 18.

The high expectations his candidacy has created in towns such as 
Morochata could threaten his ability to govern.

Mr Morales probably has a better chance of securing short-term social 
peace in the deeply divided country than either of his main opponents 
- - Jorge Quiroga, the conservative former president, or Samuel Doria 
Medina, a politically inexperienced cement magnate.

However, if he wins Mr Morales may struggle to buck the recent trend 
of short-lived presidencies: heads of state have on average lasted 
little more than a year in office this century.

That is mainly because in the past five years the street has become 
Bolivia's fourth arm of government. Mass protests - usually by 
radical indigenous groups - have toppled two presidents and forced 
out foreign investors. The main demands of protests this year have 
been nationalisation of gas and an assembly to rewrite the constitution.

In itself, a Morales victory would not satisfy these demands. 
"Elections are not a solution to the problems facing Bolivia," says 
Oscar Olivera, a factory workers' leader in Cochabamba and a central 
figure in the social movements that are clamouring for change.

Although Mr Morales is often portrayed as the creator and director of 
street mobilisation, he has often had to run to catch up. On gas, for 
example, he originally demanded revenues be divided equally between 
foreign investors and the state, only calling for nationalisation 
after it became a central demand of mass protests.

Nationalisation of the gas sector - the second largest in the region 
- - will be a critical test. The MAS lacks a detailed policy, but Mr 
Morales has shunned expropriation, instead pledging to revise 
contracts and talking of the need for "partners, not masters".

He would also face pressure from foreign investors such as Repsol, 
British Gas and Total. They have already threatened to take the 
country to court over a hydrocarbons law passed in May that imposed a 
new 32 per cent tax at the wellhead. If Bolivia were to impose more 
punitive measures, some companies would probably resort to 
international arbitration.

The battle over a constituent assembly also promises to be fierce. 
There are deep divisions over whether the body should have power only 
over procedural issues or if it should also be able to decide 
substantial matters such as economic policy.

Mr Morales began his political career as a coca-growers' leader, and 
he has promised to decriminalise the cultivation of coca, which has 
for centuries been used as a natural stimulant, but is also the raw 
material for cocaine. This has put him at odds with Washington, the 
largest bilateral donor, two-thirds of whose $150m (a,-127m, AUKP87m) 
annual aid goes on eradicating the plantt..

A MAS government would also face an array of hostile domestic forces. 
The wealthy south-eastern province of Santa Cruz, where support for 
Mr Morales is weak, is a natural enemy. Mr Quiroga's supporters are 
likely to control the Senate, and most of the new departmental 
prefects will be opponents of the MAS.

But ultimately, a Morales administration could be brought down by 
failing to satisfy its supporters. Asked how long the social 
movements would grant Mr Morales to nationalise the gas industry, Mr 
Olivera is unequivocal: "We will give him one day.
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MAP posted-by: Beth Wehrman