Pubdate: Tue, 12 Jul 2005
Source: International Herald-Tribune (International)
Copyright: International Herald Tribune 2005
Contact:  http://www.iht.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/212
Author: Ahmed Rashid, International Herald Tribune
Note: Ahmed Rashid is the author of "Taliban" and, most recently, 
"Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia."

LITTLE INCENTIVE TO NAB BIN LADEN

LAHORE, Pakistan The terrifying spectacle of a great city once again 
plunged into chaos and grief underlines one of the more glaring 
failures of the U.S.-led war on terrorism: the failure to capture 
Osama bin Laden.

Washington has mainly itself to blame. By transferring resources, 
satellite surveillance and manpower to Iraq, the United States not 
only took the pressure off bin Laden, but also gave the Taliban, Al 
Qaeda, drug barons and warlords time and space to reconstitute 
themselves in Afghanistan, where insurgent attacks are causing the 
bloodiest summer since 2001.

But there are good reasons why some of America's frustration over 
this situation has recently been directed at Pakistan, which is 
feeling increasing U.S. pressure to get serious in catching bin Laden.

Gone are the days when U.S. officials said vaguely that bin Laden was 
somewhere on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Vice President Dick 
Cheney and the CIA director, Porter Goss, have said that they know 
where bin Laden is and that he is not in Afghanistan - implying he is 
in Pakistan. Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to Kabul 
who is now the U.S envoy in Baghdad, has been more blunt and said 
that bin Laden is in Pakistan.

President Pervez Musharraf's army has captured 500 Al Qaeda militants 
and handed them over to the United States, and has lost more than 500 
soldiers fighting Al Qaeda in the rugged tribal areas. But the 
reality is that Musharraf has little incentive to catch bin Laden - 
and it may even be in the military's interest to keep him alive, 
without necessarily knowing where he is.

Pakistan's military fears that its alliance with the United States is 
a short-term one, based on cooperating in the war on terrorism, while 
Washington's long-term ally in the region is India, Pakistan's rival, 
with which the United States signed a 10-year strategic defense pact 
on June 29. According to this logic, America cannot dump Pakistan as 
long as the war on terrorism continues and bin Laden remains to be captured.

The Pakistani Army is also angry at President Hamid Karzai of 
Afghanistan for giving India a strategic foothold in his country and 
at the Americans for doing nothing to stop it. Pakistan's government 
claims that India is using Afghan soil to support an insurgency by 
nationalists in Baluchistan Province.

Pakistan's military is keen to maintain its political influence on 
the Afghan Pashtun population in eastern Afghanistan, something it 
has done since 1989 and is loath to give up.

So turning a blind eye to bin Laden's whereabouts and to Taliban 
recruitment inside Pakistan gives the army leverage over both 
Washington and Kabul. That leverage was evident during last year's 
presidential elections in Afghanistan: Only after a private meeting 
between Musharraf and President George W. Bush did Taliban attacks 
mysteriously cease for the duration of the elections.

At the same time, Musharraf's own political survival partially 
depends on not catching bin Laden. Pakistan is witnessing far greater 
anti-Americanism and sympathy for bin Laden than ever existed in the 
immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. The army's top brass has 
no interest in provoking the terrorist mayhem and increased extremism 
that would certainly follow if bin Laden is caught or killed on Pakistani soil.

Meanwhile Musharraf has kept the fundamentalists at home on his side 
by allying himself with Pakistan's largest Islamic fundamentalist 
parties, who idealize bin Laden and rule the two provinces bordering 
Afghanistan. If bin Laden were caught, the fundamentalists might 
break that alliance and leave Musharraf politically isolated.

So where is bin Laden? Mostly likely he is hiding wherever the 
Pakistan Army is not deployed in its thousands. In the northern 
areas, bordering China and Afghanistan, the Karakorum mountains merge 
into the Pamir range, providing a scarcely populated, high-altitude 
hiding ground. In Baluchistan, the army's presence is minimal and the 
Taliban are active. A third possibility is Pakistan's large cities, 
where all senior Al Qaeda operatives caught so far have been found.

The carnage in London on Thursday may be a long way from the 
machinations of South Asian politics, but the fact is that until the 
world's leaders take into account the fears that drive Pakistan's 
leaders and military - including the perceived threat from India - 
terrorism and extremism will continue to find fertile ground there.
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MAP posted-by: Beth