Pubdate: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 Source: San Jose Mercury News (CA) Copyright: 2004 San Jose Mercury News Contact: http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/390 Author: Andres Oppenheimer Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/areas/bolivia BOLIVIA ON THE CRITICAL LIST What?! A potential narco-terrorist anarchic state in the heart of South America, which could spread instability to the rest of the region and pose a serious security threat to the United States? Well, not quite. But a report released this week by the Center for Global Development, a mainstream Washington think tank, says Bolivia is one of the dozens of ``weak'' and ``failed'' states around the world -- alongside Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia, Zimbabwe and Indonesia - -- that are on the verge of collapse and require urgent U.S. attention. In dozens of developing countries, the term ``state'' is a misnomer, the report says. Governments are unable to perform basic duties, such as protecting their citizens from internal and external threats and delivering basic health and education services. "The collapse of governments often spawns wider regional conflicts," it says. ``Even governments lingering weakly in power can create massive refugee flows, uncontained violence and uncontrolled epidemics that threaten regional stability.'' Bolivia is a typical case of U.S. inattention to ``weak'' states, which may become a costly security risk in the future, says the report by the center's 30-member Commission on Weak States and U.S. National Security, headed by former Clinton administration Deputy Treasury Secretary Stuart Eizenstat and former Republican U.S. Rep. John Edward Porter of Illinois. The report cites the case of Bolivia's democratically elected President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, who was toppled in a violent 2003 revolt by coca growers and radical leftist unions. His forced resignation came after he failed to get $150 million in emergency funds from President Bush to make up for losses Bolivia had suffered from a massive U.S.-sponsored coca eradication effort. As the ousted Bolivian president told me when he arrived in the United States on his first day in exile, he had told Bush at a meeting in Washington weeks earlier that he needed the money urgently to make the payroll that month or he would be back in Washington soon as a political exile. Indeed, Sanchez de Lozada was back in Washington soon - -- as an exile. The current democratic government of President Carlos Mesa is hanging by a thread, threatened by ultra-leftist coca growers and radical Indian groups. "This is a case where the United States, for a paltry amount of money, could have helped secure a country in Latin America,'' says Center for Global Development Director Nancy Birdsall. ``If Bolivia turns into a narco state, it would be a risk not only for Bolivia, but also for Brazil, for Venezuela, for the corruption of all neighboring countries, and ultimately a risk for the United States." To prevent the collapse of ``weak'' and ``failed'' states around the world, and save the United States from costly military invasions and uphill nation-building operations, the authors of the report recommend creation of a Cabinet-level ``U.S. development secretary'' -- like in Britain -- to identify endangered states and coordinate foreign aid programs among 12 U.S. agencies. ``Right now, the State Department does crisis management, and long-term development gets a short thrift,'' the Center's project director Jeremy Weinstein told me. ``And the U.S. Agency for International Development has basically become an institution that programs and spreads money. Its authority to make policy and develop strategies has been taken away.'' My conclusion: the report rightly points out that the U.S. government is making a mistake by focusing only on ``failed'' states, such as Afghanistan, Somalia and Haiti, while not paying enough attention to ``weak'' states, such as Bolivia. It is a distinction that hasn't been made this clear in U.S. foreign policy circles until now, and that should help focus efforts on propping up endangered states before they fail. To be fair, the Bush administration has increased U.S. aid to the poorest countries in the world, many of them ``weak'' states, with its $5 billion Millenium Challenge Fund. But to qualify, countries have to adhere to U.S.-styled free market policies and other economic standards that many of them can't meet, precisely because they are so weak. Perhaps it's time to relax these conditions for some ``weak'' countries, before they become much more costly international security risks, and their presidents end up as exiles in Washington. Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. - --- MAP posted-by: Larry Seguin