Pubdate: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 Source: Bangkok Post (Thailand) Copyright: The Post Publishing Public Co., Ltd. 2004 Contact: http://www.bangkokpost.co.th/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/39 Author: Larry Jagan POPPY CROP DROPS SHARPLY IN BURMA Wa Leaders Promise End to Opium Cultivation by Next June, but Farmers Worry How They Will Feed Their Families Burma's production of opium has fallen dramatically over the last 12 months. Poppy production fell by more than 50% in 2004, according to the latest survey by the UN's anti-narcotics body. The area under cultivation fell by nearly 30% and poppy production has fallen by 54% since last year, Jean-Luc Lemahieu, head of the UN office on drugs and crime (UNODC) told the Bangkok Post. The UN survey is an authoritative measure of Burma's illicit drug production. From extensive village-level surveys in Shan state, home to most of Burma's poppy cultivation, the UN has compiled a detailed view of the Shan poppy crop. This is verified against satellite photographs. Travelling around Shan state earlier this year, it was obvious that there had been a reduction in poppy cultivation, but much of the drop seemed to be the result of weather conditions. Severe drought had stunted growth. "Its the worst poppy season in my lifetime", said a local township leader, Wei I Yung, 50. Only about 20% of poppy seeds have germinated, according to the local UN workers who monitor the crop across Shan. "And even those which survived are a fraction of the size of the poppy plants that were harvested last year," said Jeremy Milsom, who has conducted the UN's crop survey the past two years. In northern Shan state, opium production fell by nearly 90%, though the drop was less in areas under Wa control. Western anti-narcotics agents believe most of Burma's illicit opium production remains in Wa areas, though there is little doubt that even here, there has been a dramatic fall in poppy cultivation in the last few years. Wa leaders have promised there will be no poppy cultivation in areas under their control after the current planting season and by the end of June 2005 will be completely free of opium. Bau Yuxiang, the top Wa leader has often said he would cut off his head if the Wa failed to keep their promise. "Opium has been with us for more than 100 years and it has been disastrous for our health and development," the Wa chairman recently told the Bangkok Post. "If people plant opium and they smoke it, they don't want to do anything else. If they stay like this, there is no hope and no future for our people. We are very determined to stamp out poppy cultivation in our areas," Bau Yuxiang said. Wa leaders may be emphatic publicly, but privately they are worried about the future, since most villagers in their area of control have traditionally relied on their poppy crop to survive. "We buy rice in the lean season [with the money we get from the selling the poppy] and it pays for clothes, medicine and school books for the kids," said Na Pha, an 80-year-old grandmother in a village near the UN project centre at Mongkok. "It will take three to five years for the farmers to recover from the crisis that will follow the end of poppy cultivation," the Wa's second in command, Shao Min Liang, admitted to the Bangkok Post earlier this year. Meanwhile, there are real fears of a humanitarian crisis in northern Burma after the Wa deadline next year. More than 350,000 Kokang and Wa farmers who have already stopped growing poppies see few alternatives available to them, the UN drugs boss told journalists in Rangoon earlier this year. "This will increase to more than two million people next year," he said. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of villagers have died because of a lack of medicine and food since the Kokang stopped growing poppies last year, according to aid experts in Burma on condition of anonymity. While neither the UN nor the Burmese authorities will confirm this for the record, local authorities in Shan have anecdotal evidence that points in the same direction.. One village in west central Shan state, Klawg Pa, was wiped out by malaria _ with 400 people killed _ in September and October 2003, according to a provincial Wa leader. The UN in Rangoon is also worried about the future after the Wa deadline passes. "The lessons of the Kokang region after the opium ban in 2003 is a warning signal for what is going to happen in the Wa areas," Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the UNODC chief in Rangoon said. "The population fell by 60,000 [from 200,000 to 140,000] _ with the most people heading inland in search of a better living. Two out of three private Chinese clinics and pharmacies closed their doors and one in three community schools ceased operating. About 6,000 children were forced to leave school, effectively halving the enrolment rate compared to the previous year," Mr Lemahieu recounted. Even the prime minister Khin Nyunt understands the problem. "The anti-drug drive will achieve success only if the food, clothing and shelter requirements and basic health, education, economic and social needs of poppy farmers can be fulfilled," he told diplomats in Rangoon recently. The opium farmers throughout the Wa region are well aware that after next year they will not be allowed to grow poppy and hundreds of them interviewed by the Bangkok Post over the last 18 months are very worried about the future. "We don't know what we are going to do," said former poppy grower Ti Kwan Sum. "We just hope for the best." But that is unlikely to be enough. Crop substitution and alternative-income generating programmes will only produce a fraction of the money that poppy previously did. The future looks bleak, according to UN officials. Many will turn to working in casinos, the sex trade or other illegal occupations. Trafficking in women and children, already a major problem, will snowball, the experts predict. And above all with the involvement of criminal gangs especially involving the Chinese, the region is likely to become insecure and unstable. The only alternative for many opium farmers may well be to return to their century-old habits of cultivating popping. - --- MAP posted-by: Richard Lake