Pubdate: Sun, 28 Dec 2003 Source: Winston-Salem Journal (NC) Copyright: 2003 Piedmont Publishing Co. Inc. Contact: http://www.journalnow.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/504 Note: The Journal does not publish letters from writers outside its daily home delivery circulation area. Author: Associated Press NEW INMATE PROJECTIONS INDICATE STEADY RISE IN PRISON POPULATION RALEIGH -- North Carolina is building three prisons and has approved financing for three more. That may not be enough to keep up with the parade of new prisoners. The latest projections on the number of inmates indicate that the state will have to build several more prisons if legislators don't choose other options to reduce the need for cells. The North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission's latest estimate last week indicates that the state will have 44,094 inmates behind bars by 2013, but will have only enough capacity for 37,743. Such overcrowding could lead to federal intervention, as happened in the 1980s when the state had a similar overcrowding problem. The new estimates show a continued rise in the prison population. Last year, the commission raised its estimates because convictions for murder, robberies and drug trafficking increased by about 20 percent. The commission took the same tack this year because of a 19 percent jump in habitual-felon convictions - the so-called three-strikes penalty - and about a 5 percent jump in drug-trafficking convictions. Even when the third of the three prisons approved this year opens in 2008, the state will be nearly 2,000 beds short if no other measures are taken. That's the size of two, typical 1,000-bed maximum-security prisons, which cost the state about $80 million to build and $17 million a year to operate. "We're predicting again this year a shortage, and it's not going to go away, even with the prisons we're building," said Susan Katzenelson, the executive director of the commission. Next year, state legislators are expected to consider tougher penalties to combat domestic violence and a rising number of methamphetamine operations. But tougher penalties often lead to more inmates or longer sentences, and budget shortfalls make it harder to pay the additional cost of housing them. So far, legislators have been unwilling to lessen penalties for any crime. The commission suggested several alternatives two years ago that could divert 4,600 prisoners over 10 years, but they have yet to gain traction because legislators fear they'll be branded soft on crime. - --- MAP posted-by: Beth Wehrman