Pubdate: Sun, 28 Apr 2002
Source: New York Times (NY)
Copyright: 2002 The New York Times Company
Contact:  http://www.nytimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/298
Section: International
Author: Christopher Marquis

U.S. EXPECTS A WIDER WAR ON TWO FRONTS IN COLOMBIA

WASHINGTON, April 27 - With elections in Colombia a month away, the Bush 
administration expects the country's next president to take a harder line 
in the battle against guerrillas and narcotics traffickers and dedicate 
more resources to the fight, administration officials say.

The departure of President Andres Pastrana, who was thwarted in his main 
goal of negotiating a peace deal with the rebels, opens the door for a more 
aggressive leader as Colombians clamor for security, the officials say.

The United States is already preparing for a widening war in Colombia, 
where the government has been battling two leftist insurgencies with ties 
to drug trafficking and a right-wing paramilitary organization widely 
accused of human rights abuses tolerated by the Colombian military.

The Bush administration has asked Congress to let Colombians use 
American-trained soldiers and equipment against the guerrillas, arguing 
that it is not feasible to limit American assistance to the fight against 
drugs.

It was unclear whether the officials were expressing a hope for a tougher 
fight against the rebels and drug traffickers, or essentially demanding 
that Colombia commit to the fight.

"No amount of additional assistance will be sufficient to turn the tide 
unless Colombia dedicates more of its own resources to this task and 
commits decisively to a policy of establishing state authority and 
effective security for its people," Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said 
in a written statement to lawmakers this week.

Although widely respected for his peace efforts, Mr. Pastrana became a 
virtual lame duck several months ago as it became apparent that leaders of 
the main leftist rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, 
had spurned his offers of negotiation and increased their attacks.

When talks finally broke down in February, Mr. Pastrana ordered troops to 
retake a demilitarized zone he had ceded to the rebels in 1998.

Since then, Colombia's presidential campaign has entered its final phase 
against a backdrop of growing violence. Leftist rebels kidnapped one 
presidential candidate, Ingrid Betancourt, and her campaign manager; last 
week a bomb tore into the motorcade of the leading presidential candidate, 
Alvaro Uribe.

Mr. Uribe, a deeply conservative former senator and governor who is far 
ahead in the polls, was not hurt in the attack. Although he has reduced his 
public appearances, Mr. Uribe, 49, is unbowed in his hard-line stance 
toward the rebels, saying he will not support peace talks until they agree 
to a cease-fire.

Mr. Uribe's closest rival, Horacio Serpa, a former interior minister, also 
takes a tough line toward rebels.

Peter W. Rodman, the assistant secretary of defense for international 
security affairs, said Colombians had undergone a "sea change" in their 
thinking since the hope of talks with the rebels had collapsed.

"I think there were a lot of hopes invested in it, and perhaps that was an 
excuse for not making this a larger military commitment or a commitment of 
resources," Mr. Rodman said. "Now it seems that the society as a whole has 
tested that option and found it wanting."

Administration officials say the Colombian government has spent $2.6 
billion on Mr. Pastrana's anti-narcotics and development strategy, and $426 
million on related investments. Mr. Pastrana had pledged to spend $4.5 
billion in support of the $7.5 billion plan over five years; the remaining 
$3 billion is to come from the United States and Europe.

Secretary Powell told lawmakers, "After the election, we will be pressing 
the new leadership to make a more serious commitment of financial resources 
of the Colombian people and government to this effort."

While he declined to make a prediction about the elections on May 26, 
Secretary Powell added that "just watching the campaigns develop, it seems 
to me that we're probably going to have a more aggressive leadership in 
power in Colombia that might be more receptive" to spending more.

The United States has provided $1.7 billion in support of the anti- 
narcotics and development plan and the administration's successor plan, the 
Andean Regional Initiative. Most of the assistance has been in military aid 
and training. The administration has so far provided 8 helicopters to the 
national police and 35 to the Colombian armed forces and trained a 
counternarcotics battalion that officials say is the most effective 
fighting unit in Colombia.

The administration is currently asking Congress to finance another 
battalion and provide $98 million to equip Colombian forces to protect the 
Cano Limon oil pipeline. Rebel attacks on the pipeline shut it down for 240 
days last year, costing the government $500 million in lost revenue, 
officials said.
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MAP posted-by: Larry Stevens