Pubdate: Fri, 08 Mar 2002 Source: Austin American-Statesman (TX) Copyright: 2002 Austin American-Statesman Contact: http://www.austin360.com/statesman/editions/today/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/32 Author: Mike Williams Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/colombia.htm (Colombia) COLOMBIA'S WAR ON REBELS IS A U.S. PROBLEM AS WELL BOGOTA, Colombia -- Colombia's long-simmering war has entered a new phase that threatens to escalate quickly and could spread from the rural countryside to large cities, stepping up the pressure for more U.S. aid, analysts say. "My prediction is for more blood and more violence, with more U.S. support," said Bruce Bagley, a Colombia expert who teaches at the University of Miami. "But it will be logistical support and advisers, not troops." New aid would go to a Colombian military that, though improved in recent years, has been hobbled by poor morale, lackluster results on the battlefield and a reputation marred by past human rights violations. Persistent reports cite alliances between the army and ruthless right-wing paramilitary forces. Some Colombians doubt their own nation's will to fight, pointing out that the poor do much of the fighting and dying in the countryside while the middle and upper classes in the cities remain somewhat insulated and aloof. "There are many here who want foreign troops to come do the fighting," said Daniel Garcia-Pena, a peace activist and congressional candidate. "But I don't think the world is willing to send its sons to die in Colombia while the elite here is unwilling to send its own sons into battle." Things changed dramatically in Colombia on Feb. 20, when an outraged President Andres Pastrana ended three years of peace talks after Marxist rebels hijacked an airplane and kidnapped a prominent senator. Pastrana ordered army troops to retake a 16,000-square-mile "safe zone" he had ceded to Colombia's largest guerrilla group, the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia, or FARC, in hopes of jump-starting peace talks. The rebel response was to declare "total war" in its 38-year effort to overthrow the government and institute land reforms. "The guerrillas are going to attack more, and the targets will include the large cities, cutting power supplies, communications and other infrastructure," said Alfredo Rangel, a top civilian adviser to the Colombian military. "These attacks will probably increase toward the end of President Pastrana's term in August because the guerrillas want to demonstrate their power to the new government." Colombia is currently receiving a multiyear U.S. aid program that totals $1.3 billion, most of it for military advisers, trainers and equipment, including 13 sophisticated Blackhawk helicopters and 33 UH-1HN, or Huey, helicopters. But Congress, wary of U.S. troops being drawn into a messy civil war, said the aid could be used only for fighting the drug war, not the guerrillas. Congress also limited the numbers of U.S. military personnel, who can act as advisers and trainers only, to only 500 at any one time. Private American contractors are allowed to provide another 300 personnel, many of them pilots flying drug eradication missions. But as U.S. aid has grown, it has become clear that the lines between Colombia's drug war and its civil war are blurry, thanks to the deep involvement in the drug trade by the guerrillas and the paramilitary forces. Last week, the Bush administration closely reviewed the restrictions on U.S. aid to Colombia, with the Pentagon pushing for an expanded U.S. role in Colombia's counter-insurgency effort. Although overall Colombia policy is still under review, President Bush has publicly stated that the limitations are clearly spelled out in law and must be followed. With the FARC now identified as a terrorist group, however, there might be new debate in Congress over whether to loosen restrictions and step up military aid to Colombia as part of the global war on terror. Already, Bush has approved increased intelligence-sharing with Colombia and moved for expediting shipments of military spare parts. His new budget also includes $98 million to train Colombian troops to protect a vital oil pipeline, used by Occidental Petroleum Inc., that is a frequent target of rebel attacks. But it remains to be seen whether Congress will lift the limitations on U.S. aid. Critics have likened the conflict to Vietnam, a quagmire of elusive guerrillas hiding in dense, forbidding terrain battling a government with shaky popular support and a questionable will to fight. Several factors -- an escalation of the war, further threats to Colombia's oil, increased political instability and the drug trade -- mean the Colombia problem will fester as a U.S. concern for years. "We're in for a very difficult period," Garcia-Pena said. "The guerrillas have used the three years of negotiations to grow and better arm themselves, as have the army and the paramilitaries. We now have three powerful fighting machines ready to go at it. Unfortunately, it is the rural poor who are most often attacked." - --- MAP posted-by: Josh