Pubdate: Thu, 31 Oct 2002
Source: Mobile Register (AL)
Copyright: 2002 Mobile Register.
Contact:  http://www.al.com/mobileregister/today/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/269
Author: Bill Barrow

LIBERTARIAN COULD THROW WRENCH IN ELECTION GEARS

MONTGOMERY -- John Sophocleus has no illusions of becoming Alabama 
governor, but he has every intention of helping control who does. And some 
independent pollsters and political scientists around the state say he just 
might succeed.

The Libertarian nominee for the state's top office comes into the waning 
days of a high-profile campaign with little name recognition and less 
money, as Democratic Gov. Don Siegelman and Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Riley 
spend millions of dollars to saturate airwaves and dominate political 
discourse.

Against that backdrop, Sophocleus describes as a "small miracle" the 
scenario that would give him anything approaching 10 percent of the vote in 
Tuesday's election. But as most polls show either a statistical dead heat 
or a slim Riley lead, Sophocleus talks of a more modest goal: drawing more 
votes than the final margin separating the front-runners.

That, he said, would make the drivers of the Alabama electoral machinery 
listen.

"There is no competi tion in Alabama politics," Sophocleus told the Mobile 
Register in a recent interview. "If Don Siegelman or Bob Riley edges the 
other by one (percentage) point, and John Sophocleus is sitting there with 
two points, then they'll have to pay attention."

Recent surveys, including those from the Alabama Education Association, the 
Business Council of Alabama and the University of South Alabama Polling 
Group, have shown Sophocleus with anywhere from 1 percent to 3 percent support.

Still, Siegelman and Riley supporters said they give the economics 
professor little consideration.

"This just really isn't anything that we are concerned with," said Marty 
Connors, executive director of the Alabama Republican Party.

At Siegelman's campaign headquarters, spokesman Rip Andrews said, "Our 
strategy now is very similar to what it has been all along: to focus on 
what is a very clear choice between Don Siegelman and Bob Riley."

It's precisely that choice, Sophocleus argued, that should draw voters to 
the Libertarian ticket. He pushes his own specific proposals as 
alternatives to his opponents' repetitive themes: Siegelman hammering Riley 
for proposing no new education funding; Riley blasting Siegelman for a 
series of ethics scandals, one of which spawned an investigation by state 
and federal authorities.

Alabama's education funding crisis, Sophocleus said, would be fixed by 
eliminating all extracurricular activities, including band and sports. 
Both, he said, should become local community functions.

Prison overcrowding would be eliminated by relaxing what he described as 
over-bearing drug laws, which he said puts drug users and small-time 
dealers in prison cells that should be reserved for violent criminals.

Further, Sophocleus said, he wants to expand the size of the Alabama 
Legislature to provide better representation. He points out that the size 
of that body has remained the same since ratification of the 1901 
Constitution, though the state's population has more than doubled, leaving 
legislators responsible for more constituents.

It's all part of the Libertarian philosophy, which, as explained by 
Sophocleus, favors personal freedom and responsibility above government 
intervention and regulation.

His candidacy is part of the largest Libertarian ticket in state history. 
Libertarians qualified as a major party under state law after one of its 
candidates drew at least 20 percent of the vote in a 2000 statewide election.

Experts said it is difficult to predict how well Sophocleus will fare on 
Tuesday. Next to impossible, they said, is pinning down the sources of his 
support.

Keith Nicholls, a USA pollster, said Sophocleus' best showing would result 
from his most enthusiastic supporters combined with protest votes from 
those who normally cast ballots for Republicans or Democrats.

Another pollster, however, said Sophocleus is in line to claim partial 
credit for the outcome, should Riley edge Siegelman.

Alabama Education Association pollster Gerald Johnson explained that 
Sophocleus' numbers have risen from 1 to as much as 3 percent during 
October. Also increasing in the AEA polls is the number of undecided 
voters. Meanwhile, Riley's numbers have dropped in amounts greater than any 
gains by Siegelman, he said.

"That data suggests that Sophocleus is taking votes from Riley," Johnson 
concluded. AEA executive secretary Paul Hubbert has endorsed Siegelman.

At GOP headquarters, Connors said the neither the party nor the Riley 
campaign has seen any internal polling that would support Johnson's findings.

Nicholls said he remained skeptical, too, as he disputed one conventional 
theory linking Republicans and Libertarians. While Republicans might like 
the applications of Libertarian philosophy to business and the economy, 
Nicholls said, the Libertarian effect on social policies about drugs and 
abortion is more in line with the Democratic Party. "I think that's a big 
part of the reason Sophocleus would draw from both sides, not just one," he 
said.

Carl Grafton, an Auburn University Montgomery political scientist, said 
that whatever the outcome, Sophocleus' platform will cost him more votes 
than it could ever draw.

"Ideology is fine," he said, adding that he was sympathetic to many 
Libertarian views. "But when it comes to winning elections, they've just 
got to connect to the real world."

For Sophocleus, though, a principled loss is fine, he said, offering with 
seemingly equal parts of confidence and disdain: "I wouldn't be running if 
I didn't think I was the best candidate."
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MAP posted-by: Larry Stevens