Pubdate: Tue, 02 Jul 2002
Source: New York Times (NY)
Copyright: 2002 The New York Times Company
Contact:  http://www.nytimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/298
Section: International
Author: Juan Forero

BOLIVIAN CONGRESS TO DECIDE TIGHT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

LA PAZ, Bolivia, July 1 - Bolivian voters, frustrated with economic 
turbulence and grinding poverty, supported an unusually diverse array of 
politicians in presidential balloting on Sunday, shaking up traditional 
politics in the country's most important election in 20 years of democracy.

Exit surveys early today gave Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, a former president 
and pro-market reformer, a razor-thin edge over Manfred Reyes Villa, a 
populist former mayor of the country's third-largest city, Cochabamba.

But voters also gave unexpected support to the leftist leader of the coca 
farmers, Evo Morales, who favors nationalizing private companies and often 
criticizes the United States government for its involvement in Bolivian 
affairs.

None of the 11 presidential candidates came close to the majority of more 
than 50 percent needed to win outright. Mr. Sanchez received 22 percent of 
the vote, according to the exit polls, and Mr. Reyes received 21 percent.

As a result, the senators and representatives elected on Sunday will choose 
a president from the two front-runners. The official vote count is expected 
to continue for some days, and the decision-making process in Congress 
could last through July. The winner is to be inaugurated on Aug. 6.

Other longtime players in Bolivian politics, like the governing Nationalist 
Democratic Action party and the left-leaning Condepa party, fared poorly. 
"This signifies a big change in the party system," said Carlos Toranzo, a 
leading analyst here. "What we have is a new map of Bolivia's political 
parties."

The presidential contest now depends on bargaining among the strongest 
parties in Congress, a process that favors Mr. Sanchez de Lozada, since his 
National Revolutionary Movement won at least 11 of the 27 seats in the 
Senate and one-third of the seats in the 130-member lower house.

Whoever becomes president, analysts say, must put together a coalition 
representative of this multicultural country, where 50 percent of the 8.3 
million people speak an indigenous tongue.

"If this new government is not going to be able to be more inclusive, then 
there's going to be a lot more turbulence," warned Elizabeth Spehar, who is 
overseeing an electoral observer mission for the Organization of American 
States.

Bolivia has been hit hard by a three-year recession and growing social 
unrest. Many people say the country's 17-year experiment with pro-market 
reforms, including privatizing government agencies and opening the economy 
to foreign investment, have done little for most people.

Coca farmers, often led by Mr. Morales, have protested forcefully against 
Washington-led efforts to eradicate coca plantations.

Both Mr. Sanchez de Lozada, who was president from 1993 to 1997, and Mr. 
Reyes Villa, a former army captain, have expressed a willingness to work 
with other parties. But it remains doubtful that Mr. Morales will support 
either man.

Mr. Morales, who was expelled from Congress last year after he was accused 
of instigating violence among coca farmers, has called the traditional 
parties and their leaders corrupt. The platform of his party, the Movement 
Toward Socialism, is far different from their programs, arguing for the end 
of coca eradication efforts and market reforms.

"The other parties need not waste their time talking to us about an 
alliance," Mr. Morales said. "We will not negotiate our vote with the 
thieves and the corrupt ones."

That presents problems for any future president, because his party took 6 
seats in the Senate and 25 in the lower house.

Analysts say Mr. Morales benefited from a speech on Wednesday by the United 
States ambassador, Manuel Rocha, who told Bolivians that voting for Mr. 
Morales could jeopardize aid from Washington and access to American 
markets. The comments infuriated many here.

Mr. Morales is not seen by political observers as a one-issue phenomenon. 
He has the support of intellectuals, many union workers and others who 
reject the market reforms.

"What you have here is something very strong and new that has to do with 
everything that is happening in Latin America," Mr. Toranzo said.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom