Pubdate: Sun, 30 Jun 2002
Source: New York Times (NY)
Section: International
Copyright: 2002 The New York Times Company
Contact:  http://www.nytimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/298
Author: Juan Forero

AS BOLIVIANS VOTE, POPULISM IS ON THE RISE

EL ALTO, Bolivia - Bolivians will elect a new president on Sunday from a 
colorful field of candidates, some of whom want to scale back market 
reforms as a way of addressing the country's stagnant economy and social 
turbulence.

The growing income inequality, endemic corruption and widespread protests 
in this country of 8.3 million people have led to the emergence of such 
hopefuls as Evo Morales. An indigenous leader, Mr. Morales has surged in 
the polls on pledges to fight coca eradication efforts and to nationalize 
industries.

Political analysts see such proposals as potentially damaging to Bolivia, 
which in the 1980's was among the first South American countries to embrace 
privatization of state-owned industries and to carry out other market reforms.

But calls for a stronger government presence have been playing well in 
places like El Alto, which was transformed from a highland backwater near 
the capital, La Paz, into a sprawling city of its own as migrants settled 
after finding steady work in government mines, railroads and utilities. 
Now, like most Bolivians, those workers and their children toil in the 
so-called informal sector, hawking cheap toys or produce on the street or 
working in tiny, struggling businesses.

"Economically what we have is a total, complete crisis," said Rosendo 
Mamani, 53, who once mined tin and now sells sodas at a kiosk. "There is no 
job source. There is too much poverty. People eat just once a day."

Such sentiments have colored a campaign that, in many ways, is an important 
test for a country that has only 20 years of experience with democracy. 
Responding to the political winds, several of the 11 candidates have taken 
on a populist tilt.

The leader in the polls is an unlikely man of the people - Manfred Reyes 
Villa, a multimillionaire and former army captain who was mayor of 
Cochabamba, Bolivia's third-largest city. He has been leading since April, 
when he overtook Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, a former president and 
pro-market reformer.

Although he would probably not scale back reforms significantly, Mr. Reyes 
has raised doubts about the privatization of the oil industry and 
questioned whether all market reforms have been beneficial. His plan for 
dealing with poverty and a downcast economy is simple: spend $5 billion in 
five years to create a development bank to finance small businesses while 
improving education, health and other services.

"The people need to feel there is a new government, and that there is cash 
circulating," said Mr. Reyes, leader of the New Republican Force.

The candidate who has been third in the polls is also a former president, 
Jaime Paz Zamora, who has emphasized his "antineoliberal" credentials. But 
it is the fourth-place candidate, Mr. Morales, who has attracted the most 
attention lately, in part because he has experienced vehement American 
opposition.

On Wednesday, the United States ambassador, Manuel Rocha, said American aid 
could be jeopardized if voters supported a leader who defends the 
production of coca, which is used to make cocaine. Mr. Morales, who was 
expelled from Congress last year for inciting violence in Bolivia's 
coca-growing region, has led protests by coca farmers angered by the United 
States' largely successful efforts to eradicate the plant, costing Bolivia 
$600 million a year.

Though Mr. Rocha did not use Mr. Morales's name, his comments angered the 
National Election Board and Bolivian politicians of all stripes, including 
President Jorge Quiroga. Mr. Morales delighted in the attention, calling 
Mr. Rocha his "best campaign chief." Political analysts said Mr. Rocha's 
comments might help Mr. Morales's chances.

No candidate is expected to win the 50 percent majority needed to claim the 
presidency outright on Sunday, which would leave it up to Congress to pick 
a president on Aug. 6 from the top two candidates. Twenty-seven senators 
and 130 representatives will also be elected.

Mr. Morales's expected strong showing could help usher in to Congress as 
many as 15 candidates from his party, Movement Toward Socialism. He and his 
party could thus play an important role in building the coalition the 
winner will need to take the presidency.

"Morales is the king-maker," said Eduardo Gamarra, a Bolivian-born expert 
on the country at Florida International University in Miami.

Still, analysts note that it will be difficult for any future president to 
undo the economic reforms that Bolivia embraced in the 1980's. The country 
is trying to extricate itself from recession and a looming deficit. Foreign 
investment is needed for expensive ventures, like the ambitious plan to 
produce natural gas for the California market.

"If they jump off, whole hog, from the reform path, they are going to wind 
up more isolated," said Russell Crandall, a Latin American specialist at 
Davidson College in North Carolina.

But for millions of people in this country, one of the poorest in South 
America, the market reform promises of prosperity and higher living 
standards never materialized. Most Bolivians live in poverty and the life 
expectancy, at 62 years, is among the lowest on the continent.

"People say there have been so many changes, but the social changes are not 
for the better," said Gonzalo Chavez, an economist and political analysts 
at Catholic University in La Paz.

Working in bakeries here, Brigida Quipse, 22, said that she has never 
earned more than $20 a month. "In my family, we all have to work," said Ms. 
Quipse, who still lives at home and who directs her anger at privatization 
programs. "Everyone earns just a little bit, so we need to put all our 
earnings together."

Frustration over the lack of jobs, as well as coca-eradication efforts that 
have left farmers without a suitable crop substitute, has led to protests 
that have ended in violence. "It's quite remarkable that Bolivia has not 
collapsed, given how vulnerable it is," Mr. Gamarra said.
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