Pubdate: Fri, 19 Jan 2001
Source: Des Moines Register (IA)
Copyright: 2001 The Des Moines Register.
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Author: George Will

CONGRESS DOESN'T UNDERSTAND FUTILITY OF U.S. EFFORTS IN COLOMBIA

With the delicacy of someone seasoned by much experience near the
summit of government, Donald  Rumsfeld has indicated strong skepticism
about a policy from which this country may reap a bumper  crop of
regrets. Asked about the $1.6 billion - so far undertaking to help
fight the drug --- war  in Colombia, Rumsfeld said he had not
formulated an opinion. However, he embroidered his  agnosticism with
thoughts antithetical to the program for which George W. Bush
indicated support.

In his confirmation hearing, Rumsfeld, the next secretary of defense,
said combating illicit  drugs is "overwhelmingly a demand problem,"
and added: "If demand persists, it's going to get  what it wants. And
if it isn't from Colombia, it's going to be from someplace else."

Indeed. In authorizing the aid for Colombia, Congress demanded,
delusionally, the elimination of  all of Colombia's coca and opium
poppy cultivation by 2005. That would almost certainly mean a
commensurate increase in cultivation in Colombia's neighbors. One
reason Colombia is the source  of nearly 90 percent of the world's
cocaine and a growing portion of heroin is that U.S. pressure  on coca
and poppy production in countries contiguous to Colombia, especially
Peru and Bolivia,  drove production into Colombia, where coca
production has increased 140 percent - to 300,000 acres - in five years.

Now pressure on Colombia is pushing production into Colombia's
neighbors. The New York Times  reports that cocaine-processing labs
have recently been found in Ecuador's Amazon region. This is  evidence
that local peasants, who have crossed the border in recent years to
work in the cocaine  business, are "returning with the drug expertise
they have acquired in Colombia."

Regarding the use of the US. military in policing this region, it is
depressing to have to say  something that should be obvious, but here
goes: The military's task is to deter war and, should  deterrence
fail, to swiftly and successfully inflict lethal violence on enemies.
It is difficult  enough filling an all volunteer military with
motivated warriors without blurring the distinction  between military
service and police work.

The $1.6 billion for Colombia will mostly pay for helicopters that
Colombia's military will use  to attack drug factories and 17,000
Marxist guerrillas, who are the world's most affluent  insurgents.
They use drug-trafficking, taxes on coca production, extortion and
ransoms - grossing up to $900 million a year - to wage a war now in
its fourth decade. The guerrillas also are  opposed by right-wing
paramilitary forces 8,000 strong and growing - that are increasingly
involved in drug trafficking.

Speaking of narcotics, Colombia has a "peace process" with a familiar
asymmetry: Colombia's  government wants to tame the guerrillas with a
peace agreement; the guerrillas want to topple the  government.
Colombia's government is creating a second demilitarized zone this one
for the second-largest guerrilla group to use as a haven during peace
talks. But the Washington Post  reports that since the first such
haven was created two years ago for the largest guerrilla  group, that
group has used it "to increase drug cultivation, stage military
offensives, train new  recruits and hold more than 450 soldiers and
police officers captive in open-air pens."

Kidnapping has become industrialized in Colombia, and assassins can be
hired for "a few pesos,"  according to Brian Michael Jenkins. Writing
in The National Interest quarterly, Jenkins, an  analyst of political
violence and international crime, said Colombia's 30,000 murders
unrelated  to war translate into 100 deaths per 100,000 Colombians, a
rate that in the United States would  mean 250,000 murders a year.

Colombia, Jenkins said, is a success story and a tragedy. The
unemployment rate is 20 percent,  and will go higher if defoliants and
other anti-drug efforts put small growers and processors out  of
business. But Colombia has Latin America's fourth-largest economy and
one of its highest  literacy rates. It has 40 flourishing universities
and has never defaulted on its debts. Yet a  Gallup poll reveals that
40 percent of Colombians have considered emigrating and 60 percent
know  someone who has emigrated in the last two years.

Colombia's drug-related agonies are largely traceable to U.S. cities.
Although one-third of  Colombia's cocaine goes to Europe, America's
annual $50 billion demand is a powerful suction  pulling in several
hundred tons of cheaply made, easily transportable and staggeringly
profitable  substances. Here is the arithmetic of futility: About
one-third of cocaine destined for the  United States is interdicted,
yet the street price has been halved in the last decade of fighting
the drug war on the supply side.
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