Pubdate: Mon, 05 Feb 2001
Source: El Paso Times (TX)
Copyright: 2001 El Paso Times
Contact:  P.O.Box 20, El Paso, Texas 79999
Fax: (915) 546-6415
Website: http://www.elpasotimes.com/
Author: Diana Washington Valdez

ATTACK ON GOVERNOR A MYSTERY

The shooting attack against Chihuahua Gov. Patricio Martinez is 
slowly turning into a political whodunit.

At first, authorities said the Jan. 17 shooting appeared to be an 
open-and-shut case. They considered Victoria Loya, a former state 
police officer, solely responsible.

Though police had no clear motive, they said she had a history of 
emotional problems that could be a factor, and she had been fired 
several years ago after allegedly trying to shoot her ex-husband.

The governor, a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, was 
shot in the back of the head and came close to being killed.

Fox's theory

Not long after the near assassination, which shook Mexico, President 
Vicente Fox told reporters in Mexico City that "based on what we know 
about the case and our analysis," drug traffickers were involved.

But back in Chihuahua, state authorities were saying the opposite -- 
that there is no link between drug dealers and the shooting.

The way some scholars describe Mexico's political structure, and its 
alliances between officials and organized crime, it would be most 
unwise for a drug baron to attack a high-level official. Under this 
theory, the drug lord might carry out a hit for another official, but 
he could not afford to directly attack someone on his own.

Loya is in custody in a Chihuahua City jail and isn't saying 
anything. People in Ojinaga, Mexico, a border city opposite Presidio, 
Texas, said they recognized Loya as an auxiliary police officer, or 
madrina, for federal police there. She showed up in Ojinaga after she 
lost her job with state police.

Others have speculated that Martinez's criticism of federal police in 
Juarez may have stirred deep unrest in the force, and they point to 
Loya's former role in the federal police force. However, it's not 
unusual for politicians to blame police whenever they start feeling 
pressure from constituents, so that theory doesn't make sense.

Recently, all federal police in Juarez were reassigned to other 
cities. But, this too, is not unusual. Occasional "purges" occur in 
city, state and federal police organizations. New comandantes are 
brought on board, and sooner or later, they're gone, too.

Who benefits?

Assuming Loya didn't act alone, we might speculate she was sent by 
someone who harbored a personal grudge against Martinez. That's 
usually the first, and most logical, place investigators look.

If it wasn't an act of personal revenge or a hit by drug dealers, 
then who else could benefit from shooting the governor? Once we 
eliminate the other two motives, an obvious conclusion has to be 
another politician. It's the one theory no one has talked about yet.

Should it lead in that direction, this case, like all other recent 
political investigations in Mexico, will get mired down in conspiracy 
theories before it ever gets solved.
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MAP posted-by: Kirk Bauer