Pubdate: Tue, 04 Dec 2001
Source: Sydney Morning Herald (Australia)
Copyright: 2001 The Sydney Morning Herald
Contact:  http://www.smh.com.au/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/441
Author: Alex Wodak
Note: Dr Alex Wodak is the director of the Alcohol and Drug Service at St 
Vincent's Hospital, Darlinghurst.

HEROIN DROUGHT IS NO QUICK FIX FOR THE DRUG BLIGHT

The Sudden Scarcity Of Heroin Is Not Necessarily Caused By The Federal 
Government's 'Get Tough' Policy, Writes Alex Wodak.

After several decades of unsuccessful attempts to reduce drug supplies, we 
finally have a scarcity of heroin in Australia. But this has not turned out 
to be the nirvana we have long been promised.

There are conflicting explanations about why it has occurred: either heroin 
production has been reduced in source countries, or law enforcement has 
improved. Understanding which explanation is likely to be true is a pointer 
to what should be done to tackle the continuing blight of illicit drugs in 
our community.

Estimates of heroin production and heroin seizures in Australia, which 
would help us to choose between the two explanations, are not publicly 
available at present. But they will become available within the next year.

The Prime Minister, John Howard, and Major Brian Watters, chairman of the 
Australian National Council on Drugs, have claimed that the heroin drought 
results from improved domestic law enforcement, thus vindicating the 
Federal Government's "get tough" policy.

Watters says "the most important thing is to reduce the supply of drugs".

Independent experts do not support the claims by Howard and Watters. The 
Australian Federal Police Commissioner, Mick Keelty, has said the heroin 
drought is more the result of a business strategy. Asian crime syndicates, 
he said, had "made a marketing decision to deal mainly in methamphetamine 
tablets instead of heroin".

Also, most heroin reaching Australia originates in Burma, which has been 
affected by a severe drought. Opium cultivation in Afghanistan last year 
also declined substantially after a drought. Opium production is quite 
sensitive to reductions in rainfall just before or soon after the poppy is 
planted. Our low dollar and increasing demand for heroin in China and the 
former Soviet Union may be additional factors depressing supply to Australia.

The National Crime Authority Commentary 2001 noted: "In the year 1999/2000 
Australian law enforcement agencies seized a total of approximately 5.3 
tonnes of illicit drugs in Australia. Of the 5.3 tonnes, approximately 734 
kilograms was heroin. The NCA estimates that this represents just 12 per 
cent of heroin being consumed."

Is it possible that increased effectiveness of domestic law enforcement 
could result in such a sudden and dramatic scarcity of heroin? Has 
effectiveness doubled suddenly to 24 per cent, or trebled to 36 per cent? 
Neither Howard nor Watters has produced any heroin seizures data to support 
their claims. The fact that no other country has so far reported such a 
severe heroin drought suggests that improved domestic law may have 
contributed to the heroin scarcity.

But on many occasions when heroin production has declined temporarily, poor 
weather in growing regions usually ended up as the accepted explanation.

In the absence of supportive data, many will accept the judgement of royal 
commissioner Justice James Wood that "it is fanciful to think that drug 
addicts can be prevented from obtaining and using prohibited drugs".

Whether we like it or not, the odds are stacked against attempts to 
substantially reduce drug supplies from entering our 27,000-kilometre 
coastline. Only one in 200 of the eight million passengers arriving by air 
each year and four in a thousand of the almost two million containers 
arriving by sea each year are searched. The price of a kilogram of heroin 
increases 300-fold in its journey from country of origin to country of 
destination.

More intensive application of law enforcement often leads to more dangerous 
drugs driving out less dangerous drugs.

A market correction is likely sooner or later connecting new supplies to 
unmet demand, especially with such a lucrative product. There are already 
reports that opium poppies are being planted in parts of Afghanistan 
controlled by the Northern Alliance.

Has the heroin drought helped us? Drug overdose deaths in Australia 
increased 110-fold between 1964 and 1998. The reduction of drug overdose 
deaths in Australia by one-half to two-thirds in 2001 has been very welcome.

But the heroin drought has also had its downsides and risks. Amphetamine 
injecting has increased in Australia and cocaine injecting is increasing in 
parts of Sydney. Rising use of these stimulant drugs has been linked to 
growing violence.

In Vancouver, Canada, HIV spread rapidly among the city's injecting drug 
users a few years ago after a sudden switch from heroin injecting to 
cocaine injecting. HIV then began to spread to the general population.

It is far more difficult to control HIV among cocaine injectors than among 
heroin injectors. Some inject cocaine up to 20 times a day compared with a 
maximum of five to six times a day for a particularly entrenched heroin 
injector. They are at risk of paranoid or aggressive behaviour for several 
hours a day. Also, there is no pharmacological treatment for cocaine users 
comparable with methadone for heroin users.

The heroin drought is a further warning that illicit drugs should be 
treated predominantly as a health and social issue. Like drug users 
themselves, the community should abandon the notion of a quick fix.
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MAP posted-by: Beth