Pubdate: Mon, 06 Aug 2001
Source: WorldNetDaily (US Web)
Copyright: 2001 WorldNetDaily.com, Inc.
Contact:  http://www.worldnetdaily.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/655

U.S. - CHINA RIVALRY IN ASIA DRUG WAR

Stratfor Global Intelligence Updates

Thailand's recent call for help in thwarting drug smuggling confirms that 
Southeast Asia is fast becoming a second front in the global war on 
narcotics. But greater support from Washington and other nations will 
deepen the political rivalry between Washington and Beijing for political 
dominance in the region.

When the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Hanoi on July 25 to 
identify new ways to cooperate to stop illegal narcotics and arms 
trafficking in the region, the United States and other members of the 
10-nation group agreed to Thailand's proposal to bolster action in the 
Golden Triangle region of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar.

Southeast Asia is fast becoming the next front in the global war on drugs, 
second only to the multi-billion-dollar effort underway in South America. 
Efforts to curb the region's drug-trafficking problem will attract more 
outside support, including increased U.S. military involvement. But the 
region will also turn into a political battleground as Washington and 
Beijing compete for regional hegemony.

With nearly 60 percent of the heroin consumed in the United States coming 
from Myanmar, the U.S. government has been increasing its involvement in 
Southeast Asia's anti-drug efforts in response to skyrocketing opium 
production. Although similar to the U.S. government's effort in South 
America, the new front lies along the southern flank of China, whose 
relations with Washington have become tense this year.

Thailand has led regional and international efforts to address the 
trafficking problem in Southeast Asia, especially in the poppy-rich Golden 
Triangle. The Thai government recently signed an agreement with Cambodia to 
strengthen military cooperation to fight cross-border crimes, according to 
a news report on July 20 in the Bangkok Nation. Discussions are also 
underway with Vietnam and other neighbors for joint policing along their 
borders, where drug traffickers and rebel groups often operate with impunity.

Bangkok also is struggling against a massive flood of heroin and 
amphetamines from neighboring Myanmar and, to a lesser extent, Malaysia. 
Thailand continues to trade barbs and military threats with the communist 
military junta in Rangoon. In April, Thailand and Myanmar amassed troops 
along their border and placed their armies on the highest alert in decades, 
according to Interfax News Agency.

But there are problems for the Thai government at home as well. Thailand 
suffers from rampant corruption within elements of its security forces, 
according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency and local media reports.

A significant element of the current anti-drug effort in Southeast Asia is 
the growing involvement of the U.S. government. This has occurred in part 
because of the sharp reduction of opium crops in other global 
drug-production centers. The Taliban has shut down poppy production in 
Afghanistan, China is successfully cracking down in its own border regions, 
and a major multi-national campaign is continuing in Colombia.

That U.S. involvement is becoming increasingly militarized under the Bush 
administration. The U.S. military has had a long relationship with Bangkok, 
conducting the major Cobra Gold military exercise in Thailand annually. 
But, for the first time, the United States, at Thailand's request, has 
dispatched Special Forces to train the Thai military in counter-narcotics 
operations. Media reports say more than 40 U.S. military trainers have been 
operating in the northern Thai province of Chiang Rai -- near the border 
with Myanmar -- since March.

America's deepening involvement raises the stakes in its competition with 
China over influence in Southeast Asia -- particularly since China's only 
true ally in the region, Myanmar, has become one of the major drug targets.

Washington has long been active along the Thailand-Myanmar border, 
according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service. Western anti-drug 
agents consider the government-allied United Wa State Army force as one of 
the largest and best-armed drug organizations in the world. The force, 
consisting of 5,000 ethnic tribesmen in Myanmar's eastern Shan state, is 
allied with the military rulers in Rangoon and is directly involved in drug 
trafficking to the United States.

Beijing has supplied the United Wa force with weapons -- including 
surface-to-air missiles -- for its fight against other ethnic groups in the 
region. In exchange, the United Wa is helping construct a network of roads 
that could enable Beijing to gain land access to ports in Myanmar. This 
could lead to the Chinese navy gaining access to the Indian Ocean for the 
first time.

Should that occur, China would be able to influence maritime operations on 
both sides of the Straits of Malacca, not just in the South China Sea. It 
would also significantly enhance the reach of its navy, something Beijing 
has been working overtime to accomplish but which the United States has 
been trying to prevent.

China-U.S. ties would also be hurt if Washington's anti-drug efforts 
succeed in pushing the narcotics trade back across the Chinese border, or 
if Washington's involvement results in closer ties with traditional Beijing 
allies such as Vietnam.
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