Pubdate: Wed, 24 Jan 2001 Source: Washington Post (DC) Copyright: 2001 The Washington Post Company Contact: 1150 15th Street Northwest, Washington, DC 20071 Feedback: http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/edit/letters/letterform.htm Website: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ Author: Marcela Sanchez MEXICO FIRST ... CONTINUING CLINTON'S POLICIES ... A NEW CUBA LOBBY Mexico First President Bush's first international trip for a meeting with his Mexican counterpart, Vicente Fox, will be a very important symbolic gesture for Mexico and Latin America. Many analysts hope will be the first step toward a more committed and innovative U.S. policy toward the region. Bush's affinity with Fox and interest in Mexico as governor of Texas brought expectations of an early meeting between the two leaders. Analysts praised the symbolism of the Feb. 16 meeting and noted that the two leaders will meet at Fox's ranch in Guanajuato state instead of a traditional, but impersonal border meeting site. "The fact that it will be Bush's first international trip sends a strong signal about the priority that the relationship between the two countries will have," said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, director of the Mexico Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "I think the stress on having the meeting at the ranch, and not a more official place, underlines the friendliness of the relationship." Peschard-Sverdrup agreed with other analysts that it will be a get-acquainted meeting without major announcements about such sensitive topics as immigration and drug trafficking. The White House has said only that it will be an opportunity to begin strengthening ties and "expanding areas of cooperation" between the two countries. Bush is expected to be accompanied by a delegation from Congress where some U.S.-Mexican issues are being considered. Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Tex.) intends to begin discussions with his colleagues this week about a guest worker program that would give Mexicans permission to work in the United States for one year in service and agriculture jobs as well as other fields. The program would also establish special accounts for the workers' health costs and increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants. Senators Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tex.) have expressed interest in supporting suspension of the process of certifying Mexico's cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking, at least for one year. "My understanding is that there is a momentum very early in this Congress to approve a one-year moratorium while we give Vicente Fox a chance to clean up corruption,' said Rob Allyn, an American who worked for Fox's campaign. Congressional defenders of the certification process say it can stimulate concrete results in the anti-drug fight. Although some Republican sources acknowledge that certification has lost effectiveness because of political influence, the fight to eliminate it will be difficult. Continuity in Latin America Policy Republican Latin America specialists in Washington say the Bush administration's approach to the region might merely continue Clinton administration policies--with better management. They fear that beyond the friendly Bush-Fox relationship, which could develop into a once-a-year meeting, the new U.S. government will not explore new options and policies. Supporting this conclusion are the appointment of veteran career diplomat John Maisto to handle inter-American affairs at the National Security Council and the possible naming of other career diplomats as assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs and ambassador to the Organization of American States. "If you have a career person at NSC and State, the signals out of the administration are continuity and emphasis on process," said Dan Fisk of the Heritage Foundation. "In that sense, I would not expect any dramatic change from the Clinton administration agenda." Regarding Colombia, the Latin American country that, after Mexico, would require the greatest attention of the Bush government, there are indications that the current policy will continue. In his confirmation hearing Colin L. Powell, now secretary of state, said he supports the $1.3 billion dollar aid package for Plan Colombia, that country's strategy for fighting the drug trade and promoting democracy and economic development. Powell also supported the idea of developing a regional strategy around Colombia, which the Clinton administration had promoted with little success. Various analysts suggested that with Robert Zoellick as the United States trade representative, trade policy would drive the administration's Latin America agenda. They said the bilateral agreement with Chile, inherited from the Clinton administration, could stimulate negotiations for the formation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2005. "You have to prioritize; trade is not a panacea, but it certainly is an essential building block," said George Folsom, an international political economist who follows Latin America closely and who also worked on the Bush campaign. Folsom said decisions will be made soon in Washington that will have a direct and important effect on the region, although they are not aimed exclusively at Latin America. He was referring to the anticipated Jan. 30 or 31 Federal Reserve Board decision to lower rates by another quarter point and the proposed tax cut which should spur consumption and make the U.S. market more attractive for Latin American exports. Countries like Argentina, Ecuador and El Salvador, whose monetary policy is pegged to the dollar, should see immediate results. "The FTAA is undeniably an important goal for Latin America and the United States, but in terms of policies that can affect economic conditions this year, we should focus on the combined effect of further reductions in the Fed funds interests rate, and Bush's across the board reduction of marginal tax rates, particularly if Congress makes them retroactive," Folsom said. A New Cuba Lobby A signal of continuity in Latin America policy is not the kind of welcome that a new group in Washington had hoped for. The group, whose goal is to promote "more constructive" bilateral relations between Cuba and the United States, will work for more trade and the lifting of restrictions on travel to the island. "We believe that a change in U.S. foreign policy toward that end is in the best interest of America itself," said Steven Goldstein, a consultant contracted to form the group. "The United States is losing billions of dollars because of an embargo against Cuba that has failed for 40 years to produce the change it was supposed to produce." Goldstein said the group has received funding from the Fund for Constitutional Government, a non-profit organization based in Washington. He said he intends to create a group that, unlike others that support normalization of relations with Cuba, will be bipartisan and reflect the current situation in Washington, where "the majority of members of both houses of Congress favor a change." The group, which will begin its activities within the next few weeks, will be called Cuba Policy Foundation, a name that contrasts with the well-known Cuban American National Foundation. - --- MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom