Pubdate: Wed, 13 Jun 2001
Source: New York Times (NY)
Copyright: 2001 The New York Times Company
Contact:  http://www.nytimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/298
Author: Barbara Crossette

TALIBAN'S ERADICATION OF POPPIES IS CONVULSING OPIUM MARKET

UNITED NATIONS, June 12 -- The unexpected success of the Taliban in 
Afghanistan in eradicating three-quarters of the world's crop of opium 
poppies in one season is leading experts to ask where production is likely 
to spring up next.

The director of the United Nations Drug Control Program, Pino Arlacchi, 
said there was no chance that opium from other sources would compensate 
this year for the loss of Afghan crops, and the prices of opium and heroin 
will rise substantially, with opium already worth five to seven times its 
usual price. His program helped convince the Taliban that opium is a 
disgrace to Islam.

The chairman of the Central Asia Institute at Johns Hopkins, Frederick 
Starr, said the West, especially Europe, had been inexplicably slow in 
recognizing developments in Afghanistan. "The reduction is probably the 
most dramatic event in the history of illegal drug markets, not only in 
scale, but also in the fact that it was done domestically, without 
international assistance," he said. He added that Europe, where most Afghan 
heroin was consumed, had been "stunningly dysfunctional" in helping Afghan 
farmers who have sacrificed livelihoods and in moving to prevent new fields 
from springing up in other poor countries.

United Nations narcotics officials are looking at three regions that may be 
tempted -- Myanmar, Pakistan and Central Asia.

In an interview from the drug agency headquarters in Vienna, Mr. Arlacchi 
said he was skeptical about including Myanmar, formerly Burma, because 
Thailand and China have put tremendous pressure on the military junta there 
to control narcotics production. He said the ethnic groups in northern 
Myanmar who once were the largest poppy producers have instead turned to 
making chemical compounds. American experts agree that the greater problem 
now is synthetic drugs like ecstasy, which are becoming increasingly 
popular among young Asians.

In Pakistan, Mr. Arlacchi said, the government, working with the United 
Nations, has completed one of its most successful eradication programs over 
the last two decades. "Production is down to almost zero in the last few 
years," he said.

Central Asia, he said, has the most potential for poppy production. The 
United Nations has been working there with limited funds to cut down 
trafficking in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In the 
last four months, more than two tons of heroin have been seized on the 
Tajikistan-Afghanistan border.

"But even if in the long term this reduction of supply is a major success, 
it will be sustainable only with a parallel reduction in the demand in the 
industrial countries," Mr. Arlacchi said. Narcotics experts say they do not 
see matching efforts in rich countries to cut use.

"The prices of heroin and cocaine have been declining over 10 years," Mr. 
Arlacchi said. "That trend will now be interrupted. Prices will increase 
without demand reduction, and there will be more powerful incentives to 
cultivators and traders."

Mr. Starr, of Johns Hopkins, said special attention should be paid to 
Kyrgyzstan, parts of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as Xinjiang, in 
western China. "Kyrgyzstan was the largest legal producer of opium poppies 
in the world during Soviet times," he said. Opium was used to make morphine 
for medicinal use. "Presumably the people who made it work then are still 
on the ground -- and unemployed."
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MAP posted-by: Beth