Pubdate: Sat, 01 Jul 2000 Source: Arizona Daily Star (AZ) Copyright: 2000 Pulitzer Publishing Co. Contact: http://www.azstarnet.com/ COLOMBIA'S PLAN Congress has reconciled two versions of the Colombia aid bill. It provides $1.3 billion in aid to that beleaguered country. Now the quagmire can begin. The bill makes it clear that the aid can be used only to curb narcotics trade rather than to battle rebels who have waged civil war for two very long decades. However, when those rebels are not busy kidnapping the wealthy for ransom, they are busy gathering tithes from drug trade thugs. It does not require great insight to conclude that the rebels will not look favorably upon a war on drugs that threatens their revenue stream. The U.S. aid is but a part of an ambitious $7.5 billion plan created by Colombian President Andres Pastrana and aimed at resolving that miserable, war-torn and lawless country's ills. Most of the money is to come from Colombia, but a hefty portion will be borrowed. Pastrana's plan calls for: * A peace process. * Shoring up the Colombian economy. * A counter-drug strategy. * Justice system reform. * Democratization and social development. The key in this strategy is the peace process. If Colombia doesn't make peace or defeat the country's guerrillas, the other four reforms will not take place. Pastrana has tried to make peace. He has courted the rebels. He even took rebel leaders on a trip to Europe to let them see how other democracies operate. Such wooing aside, however, drug interdiction is not an attractive prospect for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) or the National Liberation Army (ELN). Both rely on drug-trade payments. The Senate bill carefully outlines the limits of American involvement in battling the guerrillas. However, the implications of suppressing coca production bode ill for the rebels. The plan is to replicate the tactics used in Peru. There, U.S. and Peruvian forces intercepted and destroyed coca-laden airplanes. The reduction of transport left coca farmers without a market for their product. No one knows exactly how much FARC takes from the drug trade. Estimates range from $100 million to $500 million a year. Whatever the number, it is considerable. It means that FARC relies less on ransom demands than ELN guerillas. Assuming the Colombian government's success in stemming the tide of cocaine distribution, the result inevitably would weaken the rebels. The rebel strategy then would be to thwart the government's eradication strategy. If experience is any indication, FARC's rebel army is superior to the Colombian army, which still has strong ties to right-wing counter-insurgent movements distinguished only by their penchant for torture and terror. The Pastrana plan's flaw is it depends completely on the notion the rebels will see the light, lay down arms and join the march to a new Colombia where justice prevails and farmers grow crops other than coca. Given the fact that the FARC is a growth industry that controls much of the south - an area the size of Switzerland - it will require miracles to achieve peace. The quagmire in the making lies in what inevitably will be certain American impatience with an inept Colombian army, a justice system that tolerates murder with impunity and corruption as a way of life. It's not likely Americans will stand idle. It's such a temptation to meddle, American style, by throwing troops and equipment to resolve a problem. - --- MAP posted-by: Jo-D