Pubdate: Sat, 13 May 2000
Source: New York Times (NY)
Copyright: 2000 The New York Times Company
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Author: Larry Rohter
Note: additional articles on Latin America may be found at 
http://www.mapinc.org/latin.htm

POLITICAL TURMOIL ADDS TO COLOMBIAN PRESIDENT'S WOES

Since taking office in August 1998, President Andres Pastrana of Colombia 
has had his hands full trying to fend off both guerrillas and drug 
traffickers. Now a deepening political crisis is threatening to weaken his 
authority even further. The crisis is in large part a result of a plan that 
Mr. Pastrana announced on March 30 for a referendum to enhance his power by 
dissolving the existing Congress and electing one that would be more 
streamlined and, presumably, more compliant. But the move backfired when 
legislators urged that Mr. Pastrana's own job also be submitted to a vote, 
and the president withdrew his plan on Monday.

In addition, three of Mr. Pastrana's closest advisers have resigned in 
recent weeks. Interior Minister Nestor Martinez is the latest casualty, 
stepping down on Monday just as Congress was about to begin an 
investigation -- apparently in reprisal for the referendum proposal -- into 
accusations that he had been making payoffs to lawmakers to support 
government legislation.

The turmoil in Bogota occurs as the United States Congress is considering 
$1.7 billion in emergency aid to Colombia to help Mr. Pastrana combat an 
increase in drug production that Washington attributes to guerrilla groups. 
The bill has passed the House but is stalled in the Senate, and President 
Clinton warned last week that Colombia might be "undermined and 
overwhelmed," unless action was promptly taken.

Mr. Pastrana's approval rating has dived, to 29 percent from 40 a month 
ago. With the midway point of his four-year term approaching, he 
increasingly has to fight the perception that he is no longer running the 
country or able to control events.

In an editorial on Tuesday, El Espectador, the daily in Bogota, compared 
Colombia to a "ship that is tossing around in stormy seas without a compass 
or a crew." The paper, owned by the country's leading business group, also 
said, "It is hard to remember a time of greater turmoil or a time when 
there was worse leadership in charge of the state."

Almost simultaneously, peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of 
Colombia, the main Marxist-Leninist guerrilla group, have taken a turn for 
the worse. Last month, the group, known by the Spanish acronym FARC, said 
it intended to impose a "peace tax" on all people and companies with assets 
of $1 million or more. People who did not pay would be kidnapped, the 
rebels said.

That announcement was followed by the resignation of Mr. Pastrana's chief 
peace negotiator, Victor G. Ricardo, and a wave of speculation that the 
FARC was writing off the possibility of an accord and building up a war 
chest to counter American aid.

"Things are heating up in such a way that it could quickly lead to a 
break-off of negotiations," Manuel Marulanda, the group's founder, said on 
Sunday in a rare interview with reporters.

Despite the outcry, Mr. Marulanda has refused to budge from the "tax" 
demand, presenting it as preferable to his group's current extortion and 
abduction. "This law is going to avoid kidnapping," he said. "Instead of 
searching for them, we can reach an agreement" with targets.

To succeed Mr. Martinez, his chief political operative, Mr. Pastrana has 
turned to a onetime rival, former Vice President Humberto de la Calle. A 
member of the opposition Liberal Party, Mr. de la Calle was the running 
mate of Ernesto Samper, who defeated Mr. Pastrana in his first run for the 
presidency, in 1994, but was ostracized by the United States after it was 
learned that drug traffickers had bankrolled his campaign.

Mr. de la Calle, who resigned halfway through the scandal-ridden Samper 
administration, said this week that his most urgent task would be to try 
"to rapidly lower the temperature and return to an atmosphere of democratic 
discussion."

Foreign Minister Guillermo Fernandez also called for a respite from 
squabbling, saying: "The language we should use at this moment is of calm, 
not confrontation.

It seems that the country cannot withstand more confrontation."

Mr. Pastrana has also lost his chief of staff, Juan Hernandez. He stepped 
down this month after having been accused of "improper personal 
enrichment," the same type of corruption that Mr. Pastrana pledged to 
eradicate as a candidate two years ago.

The uncertainties have worsened the economic crisis, which had recently 
shown signs of easing.

The peso fell to record lows against the dollar this week, and there is 
wide speculation, which the government called unfounded, that Finance 
Minister Juan Camilo Restrepo will be the next minister toppled.

"The combination of guerrilla threats with the development of a political 
crisis of unpredictable consequences that damages the management and the 
correction of serious fiscal problems has reverberated very negatively in 
debt evaluations and the perceptions of Colombia abroad," said Armando 
Montenegro, president of the National Association of Financial Institutions.

The confrontation also increases fears that Mr. Pastrana will not win 
approval of tax and pension reforms that are requisites for a $2.7 billion 
credit line from the International Monetary Fund. In a speech to a business 
group on Monday, Mr. Pastrana asked lawmakers to show "a patriotic sense of 
duty" but said he would act without them if he had to. 
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