Pubdate: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 Source: San Jose Mercury News (CA) Copyright: 2000 San Jose Mercury News Contact: 750 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95190 Fax: (408) 271-3792 Website: http://www.sjmercury.com/ Forum: http://forums.bayarea.com/webx/cgi-bin/WebX Author: Christopher Marquis, New York Times VENEZUELA TROUBLING GOP ANALYSTS Chavez May Threaten U.S. Interests In S. America, They Say WASHINGTON -- After two years in which the United States has carefully avoided a feud with President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, the administration of George W. Bush will probably take a tougher stand against the populist leader, Republican officials and foreign-policy analysts say. There is a growing belief in Republican circles that Chavez is undercutting U.S. foreign policy by providing oil to Cuba, by opposing "Plan Colombia," which includes $1.3 billion in U.S. counternarcotics aid for South America, and by giving political support to guerrillas and anti-government forces in neighboring Andean nations. There is also concern that Chavez, who led a failed coup in 1992, is distorting the democratic free-market model advocated in Washington by consolidating institutions under his control and setting himself up as an elected dictator. While there is no bipartisan consensus on whether Chavez is merely a nuisance or a real threat to U.S interests in Latin America, Republican advisers to the Bush team say the friction is increasingly hard to overlook. Venezuelan Threat "The Venezuela issue is likely to be troubling, or a hot spot in the first three to six months" as anti-drug battalions trained by the United States begin operations in Colombia, said Georges Fauriol, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a foreign-policy research center with close ties to Republicans. But the analysts also preach caution. The stakes are high, they note, as Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves outside the Middle East and is America's fourth-largest supplier. An openly hostile stance toward Chavez could do more harm than good. "It's been a conscious policy of trying to engage with him on a positive basis wherever possible without rising to the rhetorical bait when he pokes us in the eye," said Bernard Aronson, a former assistant secretary of state for Latin America in the previous Bush administration. "His actions are getting harder and harder to ignore," Aronson said of Chavez. Venezuela's ambassador to Washington, Toro Hardy, said Chavez had legitimate concerns over Plan Colombia, including a fear that it will bring refugees, renewed violence and an arms race to Venezuela. "He is a president who believes a nation, no matter its size, has the right to act in a sovereign fashion," he said. "But it in no way is a hostile posture." Some Clinton administration officials agree. One longtime diplomat who served in Venezuela said Chavez had not jeopardized the U.S. priorities of fighting drugs, protecting democracy and safeguarding the oil supply. "All of our interests are pretty well taken care of," the diplomat said. Republican Party foreign-policy experts say they would look to Mexico to help reduce America's dependence on Venezuelan oil, which currently accounts for 13 percent of U.S. imports. Chavez has helped in that regard, slashing his nation's oil production to drive up prices; in the process, Venezuela slipped behind Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico as a U.S. supplier. "We need to cultivate the Mexicans on this," said a Republican foreign-policy aide who served presidents Reagan and Bush. "They could conceivably be a much more reliable supplier." The next administration is also expected to solidify contacts within the Venezuelan military, which is increasingly uncomfortable with Chavez, the Republican experts say. Unlike Chavez, many Venezuelan officers studied and trained in the United States and do not share his suspicions, they said. Rather than clash directly with Chavez, the Republicans say, they would favor a quiet effort to prod other Latin American nations to spurn Chavez and ignore his appeals to regional solidarity. Most of Venezuela's Andean neighbors have already voiced distress over what they say is meddling by Chavez in their internal affairs, but the most influential nation, Brazil, has taken a more benign view. Independence Movement Since Chavez took office in February of last year, he has seemed determined to display his independence from the United States, which plays well with his nationalistic, mostly poor supporters. He spurned U.S. flood aid when American troops came to deliver it; he became the first head of state to break the international isolation of Saddam Hussein when he visited Iraq in August; and he lavished admiration on Fidel Castro, and helped him combat the U.S. trade ban by sending him oil in return for medical service for Venezuelans. Hardy, the ambassador, argues that Venezuela remains a partner of the United States. "When two countries have such close economic ties you can't speak of conflicting relations," Hardy said in an interview. He denied that Venezuela provides any material support to rebels in the Andean region, and he attributed the concern over Chavez to "misperceptions." - --- MAP posted-by: Richard Lake