Pubdate: Fri, 22 Dec 2000 Source: Financial Times (UK) Copyright: The Financial Times Limited 2000 Contact: 1 Southwark Bridge, London, SE1 9HL, UK Fax: +44 171 873 3922 Website: http://www.ft.com/ COLOMBIA'S PLAN The conflict that has been raging in Colombia for more than 30 years will probably become even bloodier in the next few weeks. It will be one of the first and most important foreign policy tests for the new Bush administration. Early next year the local armed forces will deploy new US-trained anti-drugs battalions and helicopters - all made available as part of a $1.3bn US aid plan - in an effort to eradicate immense plantations of coca leaf, the raw material used to make cocaine. The initiative is ambitious and contains some positive elements but it is likely to intensify Colombia's crisis. Now would be a good moment for George W. Bush to explore alternatives. The Colombian government hopes that the offensive may strengthen its hand with the leftwing Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels at the negotiating table. The destruction of coca farms will damage a FARC source of income and increase the pressure to make concessions. However, this is unlikely to be a long-lasting advantage in the fight against the drugs trade. A military campaign will only bind together the FARC and farmers, who depend on the crop for an income. It will lead to more people being expelled from their homes. More than 90,000 people have been displaced by fighting since July, increasing the number of internal refugees to more than 1.5m. Many may seek refuge in neighbouring Ecuador, Venezuela and Panama, aggravating Colombia's problems with its neighbours. Worse still, coca cultivation will move elsewhere, just as it did in the mid-1990s when eradication efforts were increased in Bolivia and Peru. Even if coca leaf were entirely wiped out, it would be unlikely to end drug abuse in North America and Europe since users would simply switch to synthetic substitutes. An alternative policy is long overdue. A first step - - as the US's European allies have suggested - would be to put more emphasis on economic alternatives for those who depend on coca for a living. The US is not providing enough support for such plans. Military aid is necessary but there needs to be clearer evidence that its recipients are not responsible for human rights abuses or linked to rightwing paramilitary groups. The aid must be carefully targeted to professionalise all Colombia's armed forces and police rather than elite anti-drugs units. Colombia also needs more help in strengthening and improving its legal and judicial systems, which have been shattered by the conflict. In short, the US is currently dealing with the Colombian crisis by focusing narrowly on drugs. It must broaden that approach. - --- MAP posted-by: Larry Stevens