Pubdate: Sat, 16 Dec 2000 Source: Salt Lake Tribune (UT) Copyright: 2000 The Salt Lake Tribune Contact: 143 S Main, Salt Lake City UT 84111 Fax: (801)257-8950 Website: http://www.sltrib.com/ Forum: http://www.sltrib.com/tribtalk/ TENSIONS SOAR IN COLOMBIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, REGION CHURNING AS U.S. PREPARES TO LAUNCH DRUG ASSAULT BOGOTA, Colombia -- As the United States launches a $1.3 billion program to bring Colombia's drug and insurgency problems under control, dangerous social and political trends are developing in nearby countries that threaten to turn the entire region into a tinderbox, senior U.S. officials say. These officials and some of their Latin American counterparts warn that the next U.S. administration will confront a number of serious challenges concentrated in the Andean region of South America. Most of the problems, they say, are independent of the huge and well-publicized mess that already awaits the next administration in war-racked Colombia. The military unrest and political upheaval that led to last month's ouster of President Alberto Fujimori in Peru offer only a glimpse of the problems on the horizon, U.S. and Latin American officials say. There remains a high potential for coups, armed rebellions, refugee crises and social unrest extending from Bolivia all the way to the Panama Canal. "All of these issues highlight the fact that the roots of democracy maybe aren't running as deeply as everyone thought," said a senior Pentagon official in Washington. In the past year alone, the region has witnessed an army-backed coup and indigenous uprising in Ecuador, a military split in Peru and armed confrontation between peasant farmers and troops in Bolivia. There are increasing signs of military disgruntlement with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. There also are growing border tensions between the government of Venezuela and some of its neighbors. In Panama, business and political leaders have openly discussed the possibility of forcefully ousting President Mireya Moscoso, whose government is mired in economic problems. "Every one of those economies is in the tank," said the Pentagon official. "If you have a very strong political foundation and strong commitment to democracy, you can handle an economy that's in the tank. If you don't, then . . . all bets are off." In the middle of all this, senior U.S. officials say, are signs of increasing adventurism by Cuba's Communist government and a close alliance developing between Cuban leader Fidel Castro and Chavez of Venezuela. The two governments are sharing intelligence and cooperating on security matters and have even begun offering those services to other governments interested in distancing themselves from the United States. Chavez has engineered a wholesale replacement of his country's constitution, along with the legislature, judiciary, executive branch and labor-union leadership. With Venezuela's economy experiencing a boost from high oil prices, and emboldened by the country's leadership role in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Chavez has assumed a more forceful position in regional affairs, even to the point of urging other nations to reject U.S. advice and military assistance. By offering security assistance and low-priced oil sales to friendly nations, Chavez is gaining popularity at a time when the United States is trying unsuccessfully to rally support behind Plan Colombia, the $7.5 billion program aimed at dislodging the nation's drug-trafficking network. The destabilizing effects of Colombia's drug and insurgency problems already are testing the nerves, if not the resources, of Colombia's neighbors, said Ecuadoran Deputy Foreign Minister Luis Gallegos. "Aside from this security issue, we have a very complex regional situation, which is not only a Colombian or Ecuadoran affair, or just an Andean affair, it is a hemispheric, regional affair," he said. Adding to the tensions are the potential "spillover" effects that Colombia's neighbors are expecting once the U.S.-backed Colombian military unleashes two of its newly trained counternarcotics battalions next month. Ecuador expects thousands of refugees to cross its borders from Colombia, putting additional strains on an already cash-strapped government, Gallegos said. With U.S. assistance, the government has launched a $400 million plan to develop Ecuador's northern border region with Colombia into a manufacturing and commercial belt capable of employing Colombian refugees as well as Ecuador's jobless. Ecuador also is allowing the United States to base counternarcotics operations in the northern town of Manta. Panama, however, has consistently rejected U.S. overtures to provide military hardware, training and security assistance under Plan Colombia. Both governments say there is lingering distrust toward the United States. Last month when Panama held a hemispheric summit, Moscoso's government pointedly accepted security assistance from Cuba; the United States stayed away. Some U.S. officials say they are exasperated, especially considering that Panama has no military force, and that its national police force is overwhelmed by a larger and more heavily armed force of Colombian guerrillas and paramilitary fighters based in the Darien jungle. Illegal arms bound for Colombia are flooding the country. "If Plan Colombia succeeds -- that is, if the Colombian government succeeds in getting a handle on the problems there -- there will be impact on the neighboring countries," the official said. "If Plan Colombia fails to get a handle on that problem, there will be an impact on the neighboring countries. In either case, and if Panama does not have a better fix on what its responses will be, it will go badly forPanama." - ---