Pubdate: Mon, 04 Dec 2000 Source: Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (AR) Copyright: 2000 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Inc. Contact: 121 East Capitol Avenue, Little Rock, Arkansas, 72201 Website: http://www.ardemgaz.com/ Forum: http://www.ardemgaz.com/info/voices.html Author: Christopher Marquis, The New York Times COLOMBIA'S NEIGHBORS FEAR U.S. ARMS WILL INFLAME CONFLICT Even as its $1.3 billion anti-drug program for Colombia is off to a sputtering start, the United States is making plans to expand its aid and cooperation to combat a "spillover effect" of drug trafficking and guerrilla activities in neighboring Latin American countries, Clinton administration officials say. Consideration of the broader approach comes as neighboring countries, which are already feeling the effects of Colombia's war, voice rising concern that the aid plan will only inflame the conflict further and spread instability throughout the region as American helicopters and American-trained counternarcotics battalions deploy in coming months. If pursued by the next administration, the broader plan would greatly increase Washington's investment in nations from Panama to Peru, most of which are struggling with political or economic turmoil and are seen as vulnerable to the organized crime, paramilitary groups and drug-financed rebels that currently rattle Colombia. Consultations with Colombia's neighbors are still in the early phases, officials say, and there are few specific commitments so far to provide aid, training or equipment. But Latin American diplomats said they expect the American aid in coming years to dwarf the $180 million in regional help approved by Congress this year; Ecuador alone is seeking $400 million over four years. Clinton administration officials say they are merely extending their approach to reflect the reality that the effort in Colombia cannot succeed without regional support. "I think this is evolving now into not just a pure Colombia issue, but an Andean regional issue, something it has always been," said Under Secretary of State Thomas R. Pickering. The administration felt compelled to focus on Colombia -- and make it the third largest recipient of American foreign aid behind Israel and Egypt -- because it was "in such startling difficulty," Pickering said. But he added, "I think in future years there will be a broader regional aspect to this as we plan and propose to the Congress new budgets for this kind of activity." Whether Congress will sustain a regional approach is not clear. Republican leaders have been vigorous in their support for what is called Plan Colombia and have repeatedly pressed the administration to free up funds and equipment. During the presidential campaign, both Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Gore expressed support for Plan Colombia. But even given the prospect of greater aid, several of Colombia's neighbors are resisting an American approach that they say relies too heavily on the military and could involve them in war. "We feel the Plan Colombia is for Colombia," said Guillermo Ford, Panama's ambassador to the United States, whose territory has been used for incursions by Colombian guerrillas and rightist paramilitary forces. "Panama does not want to get involved in the internal problems of Colombia. We've been shying away from that in every way." President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, a former army colonel, has been especially outspoken against the American strategy. He ruffled Colombia last month when his government allowed a spokesman for Colombia's largest rebel group to denounce Plan Colombia on the floor of the National Assembly. Officials across the region are eager, however, for American aid, credits and trade advantages. Even if these countries suspect that Washington is trying to buy their support for a plan with which they do not fully agree, officials cite the compelling need to help underdeveloped parts of their countries susceptible to drug traffickers and guerrillas and to provide sources of income other than the narcotics trade for poor peasants. Ecuador, which borders Colombia's rebel-dominated Putumayo Province and is just emerging from a two-year economic crisis, is seen as especially vulnerable. "This problem is coming on top of us, just as we are beginning to feel some oxygen," said Ivonne A-Baki, Ecuador's ambassador to Washington. But despite its misgivings, Ecuador is allowing the United States to use an air base in Manta, on the Pacific Coast, in the expectation of hundreds of millions of dollars in future aid. "Everything comes back to the issue of poverty," A-Baki said. That has created problems for Colombia's president, Andres Pastrana, said Michael Shifter, a Colombia expert at the Inter-American Dialogue, a forum for leaders of the hemisphere. "They're putting Pastrana in an impossible situation," Shifter said. "He's being pressured by the U.S. on one side and his Latin American colleagues are backing away from him. They see him as tainted by the U.S. military anti-drug package." Pastrana, who has pledged to spend more than $4 billion of his own government's funds under Plan Colombia, faces a daunting string of tasks: fight a war against two drug-rich rebel groups; improve the human rights record of the nation's security forces; battle sophisticated drug cartels; cope with a troubled economy, and pursue a viable peace agreement. To accomplish those things, Pastrana will need sustained international support, warned Bernard Aronson, a former assistant secretary of state for Latin America under President George Bush. "The Colombian wars have to be approached with the same level of regional and international engagement we saw in Central America, Kosovo, Northern Ireland and the Mideast," Aronson said. "None of these conflicts get solved by the parties themselves." The Colombian situation is so dire that hardly any official in Washington will predict a victory for Colombian forces over the guerrillas. The best that can be hoped for, they say, is to drive the rebels to the negotiating table. Likewise, few advocates of Plan Colombia contend that it will greatly reduce the flow of cocaine and heroin to American streets. Successful anti-drug drives in Peru and Bolivia in the last decade merely resulted in a shift of greater cocaine production to Colombia, officials say. - --- MAP posted-by: Jo-D