Pubdate: Wed, 06 Sep 2000
Source: New York Times (NY)
Copyright: 2000 The New York Times Company
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Author: Douglas Frantz

GUERRILLA ATTACKS RAISE WORRIES IN CENTRAL ASIA

ALMATY, Kazakhstan, Sept. 2 - Deadly clashes between guerrillas and the 
armies of two former Soviet republics in Central Asia last month are 
deepening concerns that an effort is under way to destabilize the region.

Guerrillas operating from bases in Tajikistan staged several incursions 
into a remote mountainous region bordering Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. 
Unconfirmed government reports said dozens of rebels and at least 30 
soldiers from the two countries had been killed in the battles.

The Uzbek government says the attacks are organized by the Islamic Movement 
of Uzbekistan, which it says infiltrated the Fergana Valley from Tajikistan 
and Afghanistan.

The death toll remains low, and fighting has been sporadic. But the attacks 
have been more frequent than in the past, and government officials and 
Western diplomats said the rebels were better trained and equipped, with 
antiaircraft weapons, night-vision equipment and sniper rifles.

The presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan met on 
Aug. 20 and issued a statement vowing that "terrorist actions will be 
crushed using the most decisive measures." President Nursultan A. 
Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has asked for broad new powers to curb religious 
extremists.

The Uzbek government said that the guerrillas included fighters from other 
countries in addition to Tajikistan and Afghanistan and that they had 
modern arms and communication equipment as well as good financing.

The evidence is strong that the insurgents are Islamic militants trained 
and armed in Afghanistan, say Kazakh officials and Western diplomats. Some 
officials said the rebels wanted to create havoc to keep borders open for 
the heroin flow, which the authorities said was increasing sharply. Other 
officials speculated that the intent was to spread Islamic fundamentalism.

Whatever the goals, the violence has clearly reached a new stage. Fighting 
this summer rose significantly beyond the bombings in the Uzbek capital, 
Tashkent, in February 1999 and the single incident last summer in which 
Islamic rebels held several hostages in Kyrgyzstan.

[Military officials in Kyrgyzstan said on Sept. 5 that the armed forces had 
bombed suspected rebel hideouts after hundreds of insurgents had crossed 
into that country from Tajikistan, according to news agencies. Officials 
said more than 7,000 government troops had been mobilized to counter a 
force of about 700 rebels in the mountainous region.]

Jerzy Wieclaw, head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in 
Europe's office in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, said rebels had used antiaircraft 
guns and possibly helicopters. He also said they were demonstrating new 
strength to an impoverished population potentially ripe for change.

"These countries can cope with the threat now, but it seems to be a 
long-term strategy to find military and political weak points," Mr. Wieclaw 
said.

Uncertainties remain about whether the fighting last month was the extent 
of the rebels' abilities or a precursor to attacks intended to plunge the 
region into greater instability.

"The question is whether this is what everybody has been fearing," Martha 
Brill Olcott, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for 
International Peace in Washington, said in a telephone interview.

For years the leaders of many of the former Soviet republics have justified 
harsh steps against political opponents by arguing that they are necessary 
to keep terrorism at bay. The presidents are certain to emphasize the 
security threat during previously scheduled meetings at the United Nations 
during the gathering of worlld leaders there.

The first substantial battle was reported in early August. Government 
officials in Uzbekistan said guerrillas from Tajikistan had clashed with 
troops, leaving 20 rebels and 12 soldiers dead. On Aug. 11 officials in 
Kyrg yzstan said 100 militants had entered the country and engaged in a 
pitched battle with government troops. Unconfirmed reports said 20 soldiers 
and 50 rebels had been killed.

Since then there have been sporadic clashes, including intelligence reports 
that rebel snipers have used advanced rifles and night-vision equipment for 
attacks.

Kazakhstan joined its neighbors in sending military reinforcements to the 
borders in the region, and Uzbekistan threatened to chase the rebels 
wherever they went, an action that could create a new set of tensions if 
Uzbek troops cross into Tajikistan.

Some diplomats worry that the threat will be used by the governments as a 
cover for getting tougher on internal dissent in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and 
Uzbekistan, where human rights groups already complain that political 
freedom is suppressed.

Benita Ferrero-Waldner, chairwoman of the European security organization, 
praised the cooperation among the Central Asian nations against terrorism 
but cautioned them to avoid civilian casualties and repression. Democratic 
and economic reforms, she said in a statement issued in Vienna, are the 
best means of ensuring that terrorists do not find the support needed to 
expand the fighting.

Even before the latest attacks, the presidents of all three countries 
centralized authority and limited political expression in the name of 
fighting terrorism and drug trafficking, though the degrees vary from 
country to country.

The attacks have caused geopolitical complications outside the region. The 
head of Russia's security council attended the meeting of the region's 
presidents in August and offered Russian troops, who are already battling 
rebels in Chechnya, as reinforcements. The Chinese, concerned about 
separatists in Muslim-inhabited areas of western China, have also pledged 
cooperation.

But the Central Asian leaders, struggling to establish independent 
identities after decades of Soviet domination, seemed in no hurry to duck 
under a Russian military umbrella or embrace Chinese security assistance.

In the long run, Mr. Wieclaw and other diplomats predicted, the outcome of 
the war may be decided not by military power, but by how much backing the 
insurgents find in the countryside, where unemployment and disenchantment 
with government are running high.
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