Pubdate: Wed, 06 Sep 2000 Source: New York Times (NY) Copyright: 2000 The New York Times Company Contact: 229 West 43rd Street, New York, NY 10036 Fax: (212) 556-3622 Website: http://www.nytimes.com/ Forum: http://www10.nytimes.com/comment/ Author: Douglas Frantz GUERRILLA ATTACKS RAISE WORRIES IN CENTRAL ASIA ALMATY, Kazakhstan, Sept. 2 - Deadly clashes between guerrillas and the armies of two former Soviet republics in Central Asia last month are deepening concerns that an effort is under way to destabilize the region. Guerrillas operating from bases in Tajikistan staged several incursions into a remote mountainous region bordering Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Unconfirmed government reports said dozens of rebels and at least 30 soldiers from the two countries had been killed in the battles. The Uzbek government says the attacks are organized by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which it says infiltrated the Fergana Valley from Tajikistan and Afghanistan. The death toll remains low, and fighting has been sporadic. But the attacks have been more frequent than in the past, and government officials and Western diplomats said the rebels were better trained and equipped, with antiaircraft weapons, night-vision equipment and sniper rifles. The presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan met on Aug. 20 and issued a statement vowing that "terrorist actions will be crushed using the most decisive measures." President Nursultan A. Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has asked for broad new powers to curb religious extremists. The Uzbek government said that the guerrillas included fighters from other countries in addition to Tajikistan and Afghanistan and that they had modern arms and communication equipment as well as good financing. The evidence is strong that the insurgents are Islamic militants trained and armed in Afghanistan, say Kazakh officials and Western diplomats. Some officials said the rebels wanted to create havoc to keep borders open for the heroin flow, which the authorities said was increasing sharply. Other officials speculated that the intent was to spread Islamic fundamentalism. Whatever the goals, the violence has clearly reached a new stage. Fighting this summer rose significantly beyond the bombings in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, in February 1999 and the single incident last summer in which Islamic rebels held several hostages in Kyrgyzstan. [Military officials in Kyrgyzstan said on Sept. 5 that the armed forces had bombed suspected rebel hideouts after hundreds of insurgents had crossed into that country from Tajikistan, according to news agencies. Officials said more than 7,000 government troops had been mobilized to counter a force of about 700 rebels in the mountainous region.] Jerzy Wieclaw, head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's office in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, said rebels had used antiaircraft guns and possibly helicopters. He also said they were demonstrating new strength to an impoverished population potentially ripe for change. "These countries can cope with the threat now, but it seems to be a long-term strategy to find military and political weak points," Mr. Wieclaw said. Uncertainties remain about whether the fighting last month was the extent of the rebels' abilities or a precursor to attacks intended to plunge the region into greater instability. "The question is whether this is what everybody has been fearing," Martha Brill Olcott, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said in a telephone interview. For years the leaders of many of the former Soviet republics have justified harsh steps against political opponents by arguing that they are necessary to keep terrorism at bay. The presidents are certain to emphasize the security threat during previously scheduled meetings at the United Nations during the gathering of worlld leaders there. The first substantial battle was reported in early August. Government officials in Uzbekistan said guerrillas from Tajikistan had clashed with troops, leaving 20 rebels and 12 soldiers dead. On Aug. 11 officials in Kyrg yzstan said 100 militants had entered the country and engaged in a pitched battle with government troops. Unconfirmed reports said 20 soldiers and 50 rebels had been killed. Since then there have been sporadic clashes, including intelligence reports that rebel snipers have used advanced rifles and night-vision equipment for attacks. Kazakhstan joined its neighbors in sending military reinforcements to the borders in the region, and Uzbekistan threatened to chase the rebels wherever they went, an action that could create a new set of tensions if Uzbek troops cross into Tajikistan. Some diplomats worry that the threat will be used by the governments as a cover for getting tougher on internal dissent in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where human rights groups already complain that political freedom is suppressed. Benita Ferrero-Waldner, chairwoman of the European security organization, praised the cooperation among the Central Asian nations against terrorism but cautioned them to avoid civilian casualties and repression. Democratic and economic reforms, she said in a statement issued in Vienna, are the best means of ensuring that terrorists do not find the support needed to expand the fighting. Even before the latest attacks, the presidents of all three countries centralized authority and limited political expression in the name of fighting terrorism and drug trafficking, though the degrees vary from country to country. The attacks have caused geopolitical complications outside the region. The head of Russia's security council attended the meeting of the region's presidents in August and offered Russian troops, who are already battling rebels in Chechnya, as reinforcements. The Chinese, concerned about separatists in Muslim-inhabited areas of western China, have also pledged cooperation. But the Central Asian leaders, struggling to establish independent identities after decades of Soviet domination, seemed in no hurry to duck under a Russian military umbrella or embrace Chinese security assistance. In the long run, Mr. Wieclaw and other diplomats predicted, the outcome of the war may be decided not by military power, but by how much backing the insurgents find in the countryside, where unemployment and disenchantment with government are running high. - --- MAP posted-by: Jo-D