Pubdate: Fri, 25 Aug 2000
Source: Wall Street Journal (US)
Copyright: 2000 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Contact:  200 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281
Fax: (212) 416-2658
Website: http://www.wsj.com/
Author: Matt Moffett

GUERRILLAS AND DRUGS: HARSH CLIMATE AWAITS PRESIDENT IN COLOMBIA

BOGOTA, Colombia -- Even as President Clinton prepares to visit Colombia 
Wednesday to showcase a new U.S.-backed strategy against Marxist rebels and 
drug traffickers, signs are everywhere that Latin America's longest-running 
guerrilla conflict is about to escalate.

Colombia's army, which is now receiving training from U.S. advisers, has 
stepped up the offense with forays into Marxist rebel strongholds; some 
battalions have even canceled leaves. For its part, the rebel Revolutionary 
Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, was accused this week by Peruvian 
security officials of having organized a complex international operation to 
smuggle 10,000 assault rifles into Colombia. Fearing a spillover from 
Colombia's struggle, Peru, Brazil and other neighbors have shifted troops 
toward their borders with Colombia.

The first visit here by a U.S. president since 1990 marks the kickoff of 
Plan Colombia, the program of military and social assistance that 
Washington is counting on to allow Colombia's government to finally prevail 
in the 36-year-old guerrilla conflict. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R., 
Ill.) and Sen. Joseph Biden (D., Del.) will accompany President Clinton on 
the trip, which both U.S. political parties are seizing upon as an 
opportunity to show their seriousness about the drug war.

The money and the visit are part of Washington's effort to buoy Colombian 
President Andres Pastrana, whom the administration calls "a reliable and 
dependable partner." Much of the $1.3 billion the U.S. is providing is 
headed toward military assistance, including 60 attack helicopters. There 
is also some money for social programs, such as crop substitution, designed 
to wean peasant farmers off of the lucrative but illegal coca plant, from 
which cocaine is produced.

Now, the pressure to deliver results will be squarely on the shoulders of 
Mr. Pastrana, who some analysts say is more effective at conducting 
diplomatic salesmanship in Washington than he is at projecting military 
power at home. "President Clinton is going to try to enumerate joint goals 
and hope that Pastrana will sign onto them," says Myles Frechette, a former 
U.S. ambassador to Colombia. "There is the perception in Washington that 
Pastrana has moved very slowly in stepping up the counternarcotics battle." 
Colombians themselves are also questioning Mr. Pastrana's leadership. With 
the economy in tatters and FARC rebels controlling a swath of the country 
as large as Switzerland, his approval ratings have slumped to about 30%.

Adding to his woes are bungled military operations like the one last week 
in which a Colombian army patrol accidentally killed six children who were 
taking a nature hike. The incident has heightened concerns about the 
military's lengthy record of human-rights abuses. The case also illustrates 
how the Colombian conflict has become a quagmire, in which it is difficult 
to separate fact from fiction and heroes from villains: The army says that 
guerrillas from the National Liberation Army, the smaller of the two 
Colombian guerrilla forces challenging the government, were using the 
children as human shields; guerrilla officials say they had no operatives 
there; witnesses concur.

"Clearly the army had no intention of killing children," said Defense 
Minister Luis Fernando Ramirez. Nevertheless, 38 officers and enlisted men 
were suspended, pending an investigation. The children's killing quickly 
eradicated whatever goodwill the military had won with a bold operation to 
liberate hostages earlier this month. In that action, the army rescued a 
Colombia media executive and five other hostages being held by FARC.

In advance of the meeting with Mr. Clinton, President Pastrana has sought 
other ways of demonstrating his commitment to the drug war. Mr. Pastrana 
last week approved the extradition to the U.S. of a man alleged to be one 
of Colombia's most dangerous drug traffickers, Alberto Orlandez Gamboa, 
nicknamed the Snail. Appearing in U.S. court in New York Thursday, Mr. 
Orlandez pleaded not guilty to charges that he was involved in an alleged 
scheme to smuggle more than $1 billion of cocaine into the U.S.

Predictably, drug traffickers are bridling at the extradition push. A 
shadowy group calling itself the "Our Country Movement" published an 
advertisement in papers in the city of Cali, threatening to assassinate 
judges and politicians who cooperate with the U.S. antidrug push.

It is a measure of the breakdown in public order here that the meeting 
between Messrs. Clinton and Pastrana is being held in the colonial port of 
Cartagena rather than the increasingly hazardous capital of Bogota. 
Guerrillas have pledged not to attempt violence against Mr. Clinton, though 
they have derided his visit. FARC leader Alfonso Cano scornfully said that 
Mr. Clinton was arriving with "pockets full of dollars, so that Colombians 
can continue killing each other."

Not only the guerrillas but also many Colombian human-rights groups have 
expressed reservations about the assistance plan. About 35 human-rights 
organizations have rejected the pact, saying it doesn't earmark enough for 
social spending.

Analysts outside Colombia are also daunted by the history of failed 
initiatives. "The last time a U.S. president was there, a new strategy was 
launched," says Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latin American and 
Caribbean Center at Florida International University. A decade has passed 
since President Bush's visit, and "everything is worse."

Write to Matt Moffett at  ---
MAP posted-by: Larry Stevens